If we know a recession is "coming", we can avoid it (bank raising interest rate...) What do y'all think? A recession only hits when we don't expect it, and/or bank does nothing about it
TC 🥜
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comments
6 YoE manufacturing
Fed is unlikely to do anything drastic like that, both because the situation isn't as dire as then, and the fed now has an additional unemployment goal and so they are now openly stating the balancing act they are trying
If a recession happens triggered by the fed, then it could have just been "correcting" an overstimulated economy that shouldn't have had that big a gdp in the first place (overheated by the fed but then fixed)
Inflation is the wildcard here. My fear is if inflation is largely caused by the supply side (covid), and if covid still causes large disruptions like what we're seeing in China, it's extremely painful to cut down demand just to bring it down to the covid-impacted supply constraints