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Yield curve un-inverted: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=evCn&utm_campaign=myfred_referrer&utm_medium=exported-chart&utm_source=direct market overpriced relative to GDP: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDDM01USA156NWDB everyone piling into index funds i.e. dumb money, also greatly reduces liquidity: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-shorts-michael-burry-compares-223347547.html bridgewater going into gold (but dalio doesn't think there will be a recession): https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/bridgewaters-cio-reportedly-says-gold-prices-could-hit-2000.html
Hopefully but looks unlikely
It's all about the Fed funds rate as far as markets are concerned.
The yield curve inverted and nothing happened The yield curve uninverted and now you think somethings going to happen Jfc. Think about why anything is happening. Why are actual humans buying actual bonds, who are they and why? I guarantee you’ll find bullish theory when you figure that out
From what I saw, it happens 1.5ish years after the yield curve inverts
Central banks are buying the whole yield curve thats why its flat and fluctuates only so slightly. Its not news when the 10 yr goes slightly above or below a flat yield curve. Central banks don’t have to sell they just hold to maturity. The people they buy the treasuries from on the open market are now fookin loaded. People chasing yields buy corporates bonds giving corps more money to do buybacks or fook all with. Central banks aint stopping
Noone knows
Index fund may go down during recession and increase again after recession and rally will continue.
2008, the last year we had a republican president leaving office, we struggled through a bit of a recession.
It’s the melt up before the melt down. Smart folks know it, but greed prevails. I’m all in because I don’t want to miss the wave, but at the same time I have a stop loss order in place. In the past 3 weeks alone I gained 8%, several years ago that was the expected result for the entire year.
Index funds are heavily invested in a subset of hyperinflated stocks and not representative of the broad market. They'll come down as fast as they went up. The can can be kicked down the road forever if the Fed had its way.
They are smart, they won’t let it fall until everyone is confident it won’t happen, and next morning your money is sucked out
A recession doesn’t happen overnight. The last time around it took a couple of months for prices to fall 50%. If you know what to look for, you have time to get out while only losing a little. The gain you racked up would more than compensate for the dip.
Run to the hills