Market crash is coming

Google
swe-4.5

Go to company page Google

swe-4.5
Oct 2, 2021 49 Comments

Rent moratorium ended/ending:

Short term - 0-6 months:
- people will cash out stocks, stocks will tank, already happening.

Medium term 6-12 months:
- evictions will lead to lowered rent, tempting more people to sell property, more housing supply, lowered prices, increased property taxes.

Long term 1-2 years:
- More homelessness, more crimes, more foreclosures, lowered purchasing power, more housing availability, stocks price will drop, less jobs, recession.

I wouldnโ€™t be surprised if this analysis is completely wrong, I thought about this in last 10 minutes, but would still like to hear your thoughts.

Thanks for reading this.

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 TOP 49 Comments
  • Google
    neverthere

    Go to company page Google

    neverthere
    People behind on rent don't have stocks
    Oct 2, 2021 2
  • Dude I'm fuckin here for it. Make housing affordable again.
    Oct 2, 2021 3
    • Dude i don't have any substantial money in a brokerage account, nor do 80% of people my age. Life is unattainable for too many
      Oct 3, 2021
    • Grab / IT
      conveyor

      Go to company page Grab IT

       conveyor
      if housing isn't an investment (thus going up in price each year), does it make sense to tie up 100ks of your money in a non-appreciating asset?
      Oct 21, 2021
  • Amazon
    taer

    Go to company page Amazon

    taer
    ST:
    What does cashing out stocks have anything with the eviction moratorium?

    Medium Term:
    Why do evictions lead to lower rent? Demand has not changed. There is lots of hiring, rise in wages and hence inflation. If anything, rents will go up.

    Long term:
    Lots of jobs open, so no reason to have higher homelessness. Lowered purchasing power doesn't mean stocks will go down. Moderats inflation actually might not hurt stocks
    Oct 2, 2021 4
    • Amazon
      taer

      Go to company page Amazon

      taer
      Delta has the right take here.
      Oct 2, 2021
    • Microsoft
      ImPetty

      Go to company page Microsoft

      PRE
      Amazon
       ImPetty
      If anything itโ€™ll help the overall market. People left blue chips for meme stocks. If they cash out that money will head over to blue chip. Or itโ€™ll be net neutral since someone has to be the loser on GME stocks.

      Also I agree if someoneโ€™s playing the stock market they arenโ€™t behind on rent. Anecdotally all my landlord friends seem to be doing great. They took the mortgage extensions but kept getting rent so basically theyโ€™re getting a free ride right now. A few of them have one renter not paying up and I get how over leveraged people could be crushed by that but most of these people have day jobs to float the real estate empire theyโ€™re building so it has a solid foundation. Not like the people in 2007 getting NINJ loans for 20 houses to rent out.
      Oct 3, 2021
  • Apple
    moo moo ๐Ÿฎ

    Go to company page Apple

    moo moo ๐Ÿฎ
    New Construction houses still have long waitlists and prices are still rising due to high demand and low supply (due to material shortages etc). I doubt there will be a crash, if anything it will eventually plateau.
    Oct 2, 2021 1
  • Roku
    crueIla

    Go to company page Roku

    crueIla
    Stock market is a graph of rich peoplesโ€™ feelings. Not the poor and the homeless.
    So long as you keep Sergei happy all will be well.
    Oct 2, 2021 0