Is Anduril actually selling to DoD or are they just painting a nice story to tell VCs? A few observations: 1.) The pentagon is falling all over themselves to get non-traditional contractors into the defense industrial base. I think it is highly likely that contracts Anduril is winning are basically government subsidies to try to encourage more of this kind of thing. Replicator is a great example where the whole acquisition community is scratching their heads saying “huh?”. It is charity. The folks at DIU will be salivating over it, although that ultimately is a very very small slice of the total pie. 2.) Anduril appears to be pursuing a business model of high levels of VC driven investment into non-contracted products which they speculate will then get sold to the military. To pay off on this will take very significant fee positions which DoD is incapable of paying. Commercial exemptions don’t seem to apply, so the only way around TINA will be winning via competition for everything. Not a great business strategy. VCs may be patient for now to keep fee competitive, but will not be forever. 3.) I suspect the main draw for talent coming out of defense will be a bridge into big tech. Most will say that the draw from tech will be more important, but there is no way around it - in order to be successful, you need some very talented people to help you navigate the intricacies of a very complex government procurement system. It is highly regulated and insiders are needed. Unfortunately, this means that after 2 years, they are going to see high turnover of these people leaving for FAANG once they “get the defense stench off”. 4.) I think the notion that the big primes are dinosaurs misunderstands things. We are built and tuned to do exactly what our customers ask of us - build and sustain custom designed solutions to requirements. We are not investment driven product houses because that is not what the government wants us to be. 5.) The Anduril strategy flies directly in the face of every major trend toward giving up data rights that has been going on for a decade and is only accelerating now. Once they stop playing in the DIU sandbox this is going to put a major cap on ability to grow. At the end of the day, I’ll put any group of skunks up against Anduril any day of the week. I think it is a hype machine meant to separate VCs from their money so Palmer Lucky can play with some toys and blow stuff up.
It's still way better than Lockheed, sorry you didn't pass your interview or something.
I note that there are no logical arguments yet against anything I am saying….
1) Everyone has to start somewhere, and Anduril is doing more than just replicator. They just won the next phase of CCA with GA and has standing contracts for things like Titan. So I don't think they are just taking handout. 2) I agree Anduril is taking a different approach than defense is used to. They will go through some growing pains and have to get their bruises but they'll hire people who understand the world of DoD to help reduce those pains. 3) I think your view is wrong here. Sure, they are taking defense folks but their also attract Tech folks who are willing to work for defense. I view them as a hybrid of people from tech and defense. They have a lot of folks from DARPA and OSD within their chain of commands so I'd argue they have folks from the right places. 4) We aren't dinosaurs but we are risk adverse. Anduril need to take risks to grow rapidly and so far, theyre getting interest. Also, We like the custom solutions because they pay more over time but the government is shifting from this mindset. They want reuse of capabilites across board and not just custom build, single use sw. 5) Idk what data right Anduril is or isn't giving up, so skipping :) Anduril is a interesting company and I think they'll find their niche. I don't think they'll be beating LM on the next fighter, bomber, or missile defense system but theyll be a major player on smaller programs going forward. Anyway, just my thoughts on your sentiments toward Anduril
Their ew systems and drones seem pretty interesting imo
I think their tech and developing method are definitely the future of defense. But I do wonder how do they stay profitable within the defense budget.
Not profitable yet
Right. That's why I am questioning their profitability
But the big primes ARE dinosaurs and that’s why Northrop Grumman is losing contracts like NGI
But you lost NGI to Lockheed Martin 🤔
US still needs the dinosaurs to develop large, expensive and complex major equipments like B-21, which are needed for Great Power Competition. New defense like Anduril can not, at least not yet, to do that. And their developing method may not work well for that type of thing. You cannot just rely on drones to win a great power war yet though they are good complements. An interesting thing to observe is how Anduril's Fury develops. It maybe a good entry point for them to prey on big primes comfort zone
The skunks I know who’ve left lockmart to come to anduril would disagree with every point you made
trying to make this move right now, but I haven't heard back. is it just my YOE? I'm coming up on 1 YOE
We have plenty of new grads, but there's also a shit ton of competition since you don't have any YOE.
Boeing is not profitable on the defense side. Not in the commercial side either at the moment but we hope to increase shareholder value soon! But hope is a bad strategy...
Bud Lockheed just lost CCA to Anduril. I might take a look at those premises you put forth and think about them more, particularly #1. I don’t think anyone would argue that program is a government subsidy program.
Almost as if the CCA is supposed to fly alongside a larger, much more expensive aircraft and the government wanted multiple contractors building the different pieces 🤔🫠
Android >> Anduril
hmm. what did you think of spacex when they were first starting out and why?
The difference is SpaceX is majorly funded by Musk himself. It is Musk's favorite personal toy and has the least layoff within his portfolio. As far as I know, SpaceX is not profitable yet. For Anduril, they already have multiple series and did promise IPO, so they need to figure out how to earn from the limited defense budget
SpaceX has huge upsides while Anduril has none. And Elon’s deep pocket can keep SpaceX alive for a long time
Anduroids - this is an obvious fishing attempt, do NOT engage with the points in OPs “argument”.
You call yourselves Anduroids😂
You make 70k a year 😂😂😂