FOMC는 아직까지는 매파쪽... 의사록은 앞으로 추세 예측 참고로 좋을듯! 금일 국장은 아래 영향보다는 옵션만기일임에 더 신경써서 대응하시길.. 아침에 올렸지만 못보신 분들을 위해..

- 구성원 전원, 소비와 생산 완만하게 성장. 고용 환경은 재차 강해졌으며 견조한 수준 유지 중. 물가는 상승세 지속(Participants noted that recent indicators pointed to modest growth in spending and production. At the same time, though, participants noted that job gains had picked up in recent months and were running at a robust pace; the unemployment rate had remained low. Inflation remained elevated.)

- 구성원 전원, 미국 은행 시스템은 건전하고 회복력도 보유. 최근 사태는 신용 여건을 긴축적으로 만들고 경제 전반에 영향을 미칠 것
(Participants agreed that the U.S. banking system remained sound and resilient. They commented that recent developments in the banking sector were likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation.)

- 구성원 전원, 은행 사태의 여파와 효과 전망은 불확실하지만 여전히 물가에 중점을 두는 것이 적절(Participants agreed that the extent of these effects was uncertain. Against this background, participants continued to be highly attentive to inflation risks.)

- 구성원 전원, 은행 사태로 인해 금년 GDP 성장률은 장기 추세 성장률을 크게 하회할 전망
(Their initial views on the likely economic effect of the recent banking-sector developments, participants generally expected real GDP to grow this year at a pace well below its long-run trend rate.)

- 많은 구성원, 은행 이슈가 없었다면 기준금리는 12월 전망 보다 더 높게 올리는 것이 적절했을 것(Many participants remarked that the incoming data before the onset of the banking-sector stresses had led them to see the appropriate path for the federal funds rate as somewhat higher than their assessment at the time of the December meeting.)

- 몇몇(Several) 구성원, 심각한 스트레스에 노출되어 있는 몇몇 지방 소형은행은 지역 경제, 소규모 기업체들의 중요한 대출원
(Several participants noted that regional and community banks, a small number of which had come under significant stress, were important in small business and middle-market lending and were providing critical and unique financial services to many communities and industries.)

- 일부(A few) 구성원, 물가와 금리 상승 영향에 저소득 가구 위주로 신용카드 연체율 증가(A few participants observed that credit card delinquencies, particularly for lower-income households, had risen in the face of elevated inflation and higher nominal interest rates.)

- 몇몇 (A couple of) 구성원, 상황을 예단할 수 없으나 은행 사태에 따른 소비자 심리는 큰 변화 부재
(A couple of participants observed that high-frequency measures of consumer sentiment had not yet shown a significant change following the recent developments in the banking sector, although they also acknowledged that the situation was fluid.)

- 구성원 전원, 기업 활동이 억제되고 있는 가운데 은행 문제는 이를 가속화시킬 가능성(Participants expected the likely tightening of credit conditions due to the recent developments in the banking sector to further weigh on investment spending.)

- 구성원 전원, 고용 수급 불균형은 개선되는 모습. 퇴사율이 낮아지고 있고, 핵심 연령층 경제활동 참여율은 코로나 이전 수준까지 회복
(Participants noted some signs of improvement in the imbalances between demand and supply in the labor market, including further declines in the quits rate as well as an increase in the overall labor force participation rate and the return of the prime-age participation rate to pre-pandemic levels.)

- 구성원 전원, 디스인플레이션은 예상보다 느린 속도로 전개 중(Participants commented that recent inflation data indicated slower-than-expected progress on disinflation.)

- 구성원 전원, 신규 임대 비용 상승률 둔화(또는 감소) 고려 시 몇 개월 내 주거 서비스 물가도 둔화될 전망
(Participants expected that housing services inflation would likely begin to slow in coming months, reflecting continued smaller increases, or potentially declines, in rents on new leases.)

- 구성원 전원, 주거 제외 근원 서비스 물가의 둔화 징후는 거의 없음(Regarding prices for core services excluding housing, participants agreed that there was little evidence pointing to disinflation in this component.)

- 구성원 전원, 긴축적 신용 환경이 총 수요를 억제, 물가 둔화에 도움을 줄 수 있지만 그 효과의 정도는 매우 불확실
(They noted that a tightening of credit conditions was likely to weigh on aggregate demand, which in turn could help reduce inflationary pressures. However, participants observed that the size of such an effect was highly uncertain.)

- 구성원 전원, 물가가 2% 상승률로 돌아가고 있다는 증거는 거의 없음(The recent data on inflation provided few signs that inflation pressures were abating at a pace sufficient to return inflation to 2 percent over time.)

- 구성원 전원, 대차대조표 축소는 기존 계획대로 진행하는 것이 적절
(All participants also agreed that it was appropriate to continue the process of reducing the Federal Reserve's securities holdings, as described in its previously announced Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet.)

- 몇몇 구성원(Several), 기준금리를 일정한 수준으로 인상하는 것이 적절한지 의문. 이는 최근 은행 사태 진정, 통화정책 파급효과 확인에 더 많은 시간이 필요하게 될 것(Several participants noted that, in their policy deliberations, they considered whether it would be appropriate to hold the target range steady at this meeting. They noted that doing so would allow more time to assess the financial and economic effects of recent banking-sector developments and of the cumulative tightening of monetary policy.)

- 일부 구성원(Some), 은행 이슈가 없었다면 50bp 기준금리 인상이 적절
(Some participants noted that given persistently high inflation and the strength of the recent economic data, they would have considered a 50 basis point increase in the target range to have been appropriate at this meeting in the absence of the recent developments in the banking sector.)

- 구성원 전원, 은행 리스크는 일부 부실한 기관에 국한. 전반적인 은행 시스템은 견조하고 회복력도 보유(Participants noted that the most significant issues appeared to have been limited to a small number of banks with poor risk-management practices and that the banking system remained sound and resilient.)

- 구성원 전원, 금번 사태는 유동성 대출과 같은 거시적, 미시적 도구를 통해 대응해야 함
(Participants emphasized that the Federal Reserve should use its liquidity and lender-of-last-resort tools, as well as its microprudential and macroprudential regulatory and supervisory tools, to address stress in the banking sector and to mitigate future financial stability risks.)

- 구성원 전원, 추가적인 정책 조정 필요
(May be appropriate to attain a sufficiently restrictive policy stance.)

- 많은(Many) 구성원, 일련의 사태로 연준의 최종 기준금리 수준을 낮추게 되었음
(Many participants noted that the likely effects of recent banking-sector developments on economic activity and inflation had led them to lower their assessments of the federal funds rate target range that would be sufficiently restrictive compared with assessments based solely on the recent economic data.)