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The official numbers say the US has 2227 deaths and 123750 cases, but we know the lack of testing kits means the number of actual cases is much higher. One way to estimate is to estimate total cases from deaths, which are more reliably tracked. Assuming 1% die then the current 2227 deaths are the 1% of a cohort of 222,700 who were infected. But that 222,700 were infected 3+ weeks ago as it takes awhile to die. The number of cases may have doubled 3-4 times since then, or between 8 and 16 times. So that's suggesting we have been 1.7 million and 3.6 million cases today, maybe even more. Is that realistic? Look at this: https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21D2XJ "A further 2.4% of those polled said they have been in close contact with someone who has tested positive. And in an illustration of the degrees of separation with the deadly virus, a further 2.6% said they knew someone who has been in close contact with a person who has tested positive" 3.6 million would be just over 1% of the US population and from that poll it might be a LOW estimate. If we do have 3.6 million cases and 1% of them die in the next three weeks we can expect 36,000 deaths soon.
Yeah, your math may very well be correct, unfortunately... This is a good explanation of why the number of officially confirmed cases continues to grow so rapidly
Yep, America First, you know
Good logic except one thingādeath rate is lower than 1% based on new data. Precisely as u point out death rate was inflated cuz they were dividing it over tested cases when a large population never got tested to be included. If most people wonāt ever get tested then death rate is actually a lot lower than 1% Read this. https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/26/uk-epidemiologist-radically-lowers-his-predicted-c/ His original model was used by WHO and governments so this is a huge news for the world communities. Most governments donāt talk about it though lest people lower their guard.
He's one guy with an opinion that is different than a LOT of other guys with the same credentials
If what u said is true I wouldnāt have written my comment. Did u even read? This guyās original report was what White House and U.K. gov used for their covid19 modeling. https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/26/the-scientist-whose-doomsday-pandemic-model-predicted-armageddon-just-walked-back-the-apocalyptic-predictions/ āBritish scientist Neil Ferguson ignited the worldās drastic response to the novel Wuhan coronavirus when he published the bombshell report predicting 2.2 million Americans and more than half a million Brits would be killed. After both the U.S. and U.K. governments effectively shut down their citizens and economies, Ferguson is walking back his doomsday scenarios.ā āDr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, reportedly said the administration was particularly focused on the Imperial College reportās conclusion that entire households should stay in isolation for 14 days if any member suffered from COVID-19 symptoms. But after tens of thousands of restaurants, bars, and businesses closed, Ferguson is now retracting his modeling, saying he feels āreasonably confidentā our health care system can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in a few weeks. Testifying before the U.K.ās parliamentary select committee on science and technology on Wednesday, Ferguson said he now predicts U.K. deaths from the disease will not exceed 20,000, and could be much lower.ā
The doubling rate has been ~3 days so your numbers are probably low. 3 weeks would be 7 doublings. Reported death rates are probably low as well ā a heart attack brought on by troubled breathing can be counted as a non covid19 death.
Oh wow. OPās post says 123k cases. That was 4 days ago. Now we are at 215k.
Yeah... And the number of deaths doubled to over 5,000...
Take Indiaās reported deaths today (136), infer a true case count of 13,600 cases 3 weeks ago, and compare that to reported cases 3 weeks ago to see the scope of error. On 3-13 they said 113 cases. Off by 100x, back of the envelope...
7 billion..
36000 is just a little over how many people died of the flu in 2018-19 and itās only April
Lol here we go again with the flu nonsense.
My point is that itās much worse than the flu