Why I think Trump will win, looking at what's going on
American elections are largely decided not by swing/independent voters but which party can get more of their base to actually show up and vote. This is normally the deciding factor Now, last time around Trump actually brought out a lot of Biden voters as a large part of their campaign was to get Trump out This time around, the Trump base seems to be extremely excited. They believe all the legal proceedings are a hoax and they see it as democrats weaponziing the judicial system for political gain The anti Trump factor for democrats isn't as strong as its been 4 years Thoughts?
Anti-Trump factor for democrats is strong because of legal proceedings. Plus standard set: abortion rights, no human is illegal etc. Trump was also making many anti-Ukrainian points, however he started correcting them recently. The biggest problem for Biden is Hamas supporters that may not show up.
Trump said relying on Russia for gas was a bad idea. Abortion isn't a right and it's been rightfully made back into a State issue. Citizenship is important to the security of a country, every real country cares about it. Trump is a moderate middle of the road President if you just look past his character.
No one gives a shit about "legal proceedings" except people stuck inside the MSNBC echo chamber. Anyone with even a sliver of a brain knows they are bullshit. Same with "no human being is illegal" people.
This is an interesting way to say Trump's base is full of morons.
The anti-Trump factor is even stronger. The guy has multiple criminal cases going on. And took credit for getting abortion rights taken away.
It's not a right, it wasnt taken away, and the entire case was built on a lie.
It was a right for 50 years, then it was taken away.
All I remember when Trump was president was no new wars, ending the war with the middle east, low prices on everything, high paying jobs everywhere, and life and general was great. I warned everyone what would happen if Biden got in, and now everyone is complaining about mass layoffs, inflation, wars, ect... and I'm like.... somehow "I told you so" just isn't strong enough.
Your premise is not completely correct. While base turnout is important, there are still a lot of persuadable voters that decide elections. Turnout was higher for registered republicans in 2022 but democrats had a decent midterm because they persuaded and won over a sizable fraction. Not to say trump can’t win, but the electorate is complex
No one wants a second Biden term. A few people want a second Trump term.
What makes you think the anti-Trump crowd won't show up again? The "it's all a hoax" crowd is 1/3 of the American electorate and not enough on their own to get Trump back in: they NEED independents also.
Best way to change someone's mind is to give them what they want. Biden voters are currently protesting Bidens support for the Gaza conflict.
Biden don’t support Gaza conflict, he supports country that has been attacked. There was no conflict in Gaza on Oct. 7, only in Israel. Majority of voters are pro-Israel in both parties, why should he give Hamas supporters what they want? https://news.gallup.com/poll/611375/americans-views-israel-palestinian-authority-down.aspx
Why is supporting Palestine considered supporting Hamas?