While humorous, I feel that there is some truth to the saying "You don't want to be competing with college grads for promotions once you have other responsibilities". This is just one of several examples of things that threaten SWE job security. Others include: you've peaked at your level and the company feels it's better to promote someone new and pay them a lower salary then keep giving you raises so they lay you off (could be just a Microsoft thing), your new manager doesn't like you, or your org/startup shuts down. I am fairly new to the field and might just be a little too paranoid. I feel that no matter how good you are and where you work, you can't escape these factors. Sure you can get promoted, but unless you reach director level you're still pretty vulnerable to being let go. Am I the only one that feels this way?
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Being at director level increases that risk, if anything, not decreases it, because you are now competing for fewer positions, and youre probably expected to have control over things which might very well be outside of your request of influence.
Director or not, I personally think you have to be clear about what you want to achieve, by when, and what you're willing to pay for it.
Dan Kahneman's works are eye opening and worth a read as you strategize your life.
As I start to look for my Next Thing, I suspect I will gravitate back towards a senior IC role, but I’m definitely conscious of ageism.
(Thanks for the tip: I have “Thinking, Fast and Slow” but hadn’t gotten to it yet.)
Thankfully, the pay of tech jobs is good enough that a person who plans sufficiently well can be financially independent by the age of 40 and spend the rest of their life doing whatever job they find personally fulfilling, regardless of whether it's top-tier pay.
(This might be less possible in the Bay Area, but this is why I've always avoided SFBA jobs.)
Bad management is gutting this profession.
You get no points (or pay raise) holding out for that much needed promotion. Jump ship before the ship jumps you.