Is real estate going to crash in Bay Area?
Got in when it peaked, fearing the cool off now. Some predict a crash coming in 2020. Wdyt?
A house you live in shouldn’t be treated as an investment, so hopefully you didn’t bite off more than you can chew. In that case even if the market cools off, you should be fine.
If it goes down 20%-30%, time to buy another. If it goes down by 50%, I think many of us would lose our jobs
Crash and burn coming soon.
You only need to worry if you lose job or planning to sell in next few years. Otherwise just relax.
It's not going to tank like in 2006/07/08. But it's definitely going to correct itself. Current prices are unsustainable. Expect a 10-15% correction over the next 2 years.
I'll get this worked into the zestimate in a few days!
How do you quantify/justify sustainable/unsustainable? Affordable index is still well above last recession's low. With a series of recent and coming IPOs. I do see a cool off ahead. But 15% correction? I'd love to know where would those new millionaires gonna spend their $$, especially when rates go down and stocks get too volatile. I'm not saying it's gonna be hot like the past decade. I just can't find a way to justify 15% correction in bay area housing, particualrly in the next 2 years. If you have some reference backed by some kind of data, I'd love to learn about it.
I have been hearing about crash for past 4 years. No one can predict anything for certain. Don't worry too much. If something happens accept it and take a wise decision and move on.
How much did you pay?
Just like the last crash, prices will get right back to where the median income in an area can just barely afford the median house in that same area. So my money would be on it dropping about 40% with foreclosures in tow. I started looking for a house in 2007, but calculated the bottom and waited until 2010 to buy at the bottom. This inflation adjusted housing prices since 1890 graph should explain everything https://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflation-adjusted Housing bubbles cannot be maintained.
cool, is this also the case in nyc? sorry for the question, newbie on real estate
This graph is for the entire US, if anything the bay area is even above that in terms of a bubble from the data I've seen. So yes I would expect NYC to drop too. Assuming the same rate of fall I would expect the bottom to hit in about 2-3 years. Calculate 2010 prices plus inflation since then to figure out about where the bottom would be. Here's some other data points for other large metros: https://wolfstreet.com/2019/06/25/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-first-year-over-year-drops-since-housing-bust-1/
Price to buy is too much more than renting similar... And they've thrown up a lot of new rentals lately. Your in it for the long haul 10+ years now
Cool