Housing

New home sales tank 19% to end 2018

Microsoft ToteMyGoat
4d

One bad news after another for housing market. With rates predicted to go up higher to 5% the worst might be yet to come.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/07/housing-affordability-map.html

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  • Citibank Ht09q7
    Check back in April after tax season. I suspect we’ll see a huge increase in listings once people that purchased before he SALT deduction laws passed see their tax bill.
    4d5
    • Intel Jopdi(78
      Most people getting $10K in SALT deductions were get $0 of SALT deductions before due to AMT.
      4d
    • Citibank Ht09q7
      That’s the argument yet no one can seem to quantify the number. It’s not going to take a very large number of listings in places like the Bay Area to cause a major spike and a chain reaction of people listing. There are many more on the fence hoping to see prices continue to increase. This happened in 2015 and then prices soared. I think this time is truly different 😂
      4d
    • Intel Appm$$/
      Quantify what number? The number of high earners who will be hit by AMT this year will decline from 1/3 to .1%.

      https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/who-pays-amt
      4d
    • Citibank Ht09q7
      Quantify the number of people that will be forced to list based the unexpected change in the law.
      4d
    • Intel Appm$$/
      Not following - Why would they have to list by having more money in their pocket this year vs last year? Bay Area folks will be getting more deductions than they were last year with the virtual elimination of AMT.
      4d
  • Intel Jopdi(78
    Rates will hit 4% before they hit 5%.
    4d3
    • Google blindler
      Huh, they have been over 4% for a while now. I assume you are talking about the 30 year fixed mortgage rate.
      4d
    • Intel Jopdi(78
      Yep - my point is they’re going to come down given the 10yr Treasury has decreased by half a point over the last three months and the Fed is wavering on raising rates again. Mortgage rates have peaked for this cycle.
      4d
    • Intel Appm$$/
      4d
  • Zillow Group trollman
    The end is near
    4d2
    • Citibank Ht09q7
      @trollman how is this possible? Are your “z” estimates really off by double digits % or are housing prices collapsing more quickly than your algos are capable of capturing? This is one example of many in SF.
      4d
    • Citibank Ht09q7
      4d
  • TuneIn Pshush
    What is that mean for home buyers?
    3d0
  • New DuQvV7x
    Keep in mind, FHA loans don’t process during a government shutdown.
    3d0
  • LinkedIn Zeiwkf5
    Home sales != home price.
    4d0
  • Facebook public2
    How is this bad? Lol
    4d0
  • HPE mtpbg
    🍿
    4d0

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