What big breakthroughs do you think will change the gaming industry as we know it in the 10-20 years? Do you envision similar console games, PC games, or do you envision a big change via other technologies and if so which ones? VR? AR?
- Hard to see this happening without a big cultural shift in the supplier/consumer relationship. It’s insane how games still cost the same as they did 20 years ago despite the cost of making games growing by many magnitudes. Margins and volatility in the gaming business are insane (in a bad way).Apr 257
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- I think people will buy wireless controllers that plug into their TV or laptop, allow access to games by subscription in an online portal.
- Think about like, how many pixels you need to push to fill someone's whole field of view and then make it dense enough so you can't see the individual pixels. We're already up against a wall w/ moore's law. Then the problem of movement - VR games' movement is currently limited and gimmicky. People would have to be comfortable owning one of those omni treadmills in their home, not to mention the tech to support the necessary bandwidth for wireless streaming. We'd probably need about a generation to wash away the stigma, not to mention make all of this affordable. Budget full-stack setup @ a couple thousand. The gap between where we are now and the promise of full immersion is so very far away imo.
The only way I could see it happening sooner is if we double down on perception hacking - the acuity at the center of your fovea is only like 1 Megapixel. Tracking the eye path one might be able to fool the brain into stitching together an image while using considerably less power, but I'm sure it's much more complicated than that.
- Apple Snut EllaIt will look a lot like it does today except there will be more porn and we’ll be at 16K
- Sword art online. Full immersion using dream based technology which is non invasive. It's similar to the concept from inception movie except the dream can be controlled and shared over interwebs. Also it will be the birth of immortality coz time elongates when you run depth first search in your dreams aka dream within dream etc. This is also the reason why we don't see aliens. Coz they are so advanced that they are sleeping and dreaming instead of exploring universe
- I’ll still be gaming on my NES, SNES, or N64 because I hate waiting hours for game updates.
- Microsoft / EngStack🖕floThere wont be gaming pcs or consoles. Everything will be streamed and platform agnostic
- Forget about VR and AR, that's nice and cool but the real thing is online gaming in my opinion. What needs to change: Democratize the creation of online games and server costs (like MMO) to an affordable price and make net code easier to program and predictable (with deterministic physics). Whoever pull this off is going to shape the gaming industry going forward. Unity is currently investing in some of these areas. If you've ever tried to program a multiplayer game you know what I'm talking about and how costly it is. This needs to change and it's one of the reasons you don't see a lot of multiplayer games (indie or AAA) being released. Look it up on steam, almost every single player game has a thread asking about multiplayer and it's usually deprioritized due to high costs. I'm a strong believer that this will change in the future as cloud computing becomes cheaper.
- You can have a combination of online gaming with VR/AR. I see where you are going with this and agree that its probably going to be the next big thing in gaming. Its giving you mobility like switch did.
However, VR/AR is more than just cool. Imagine a mature gameplay for a AAA game. I would shell out a lot of money for that. I don’t think you should discount it as “nice and cool”.
- Deloitte / CreativeFHAs14First person shooters or platform games just like it was 20 years ago, lol.
- New bfksjtjax.If everything is MMO there are whole classes of gamers who currently that aren't doing it anymore, which seems somewhat unlikely. As an industry, gaming can't only cater to high investment gamers without leaving a lot of money on the table. As I get older I find that more and more of my old gaming friends (myself included) turn more towards single player experiences because it's much harder to find the time to compete.
- How far have things come in that long from Quake, Command and Conquer, Starcraft, Fallout, and Eve?
Mobile gaming is pay to win versions of games from 15 years ago.
Narrative is dead in the mainstream except maybe Assassin's Creed and Witcher, the latter isn't all that popular and instead a labor of love on both sides.
Fortnite is an aberration. It's not good except it allows an FPS mode previous control methods would have failed with. It's novelty with staying power because of even more unwashed masses effect than the popularity of Team Fortress Classic and og Counterstrike.
VR will get another reboot in about a decade as it does each one. Maybe that time the asshats will have light weight, wireless, foveated rendering, and retina resolution before they launch half baked goods. The best hope for VR is for it to abruptly die in the next year. If it drags its death out, the next Era of VR might be 15 years out because they'll poison it like 3D displays.
Gaming has only had a handful of revolutions: multiple sprites, high color depth, 3D rendering, multi-player, shaders, large open worlds and storytelling, and adaptive difficulty and matchmaking. For 40 years of history of an emergent technology, that's not as impressive as a list as the kiddies think. Most of that list is day 1 fantasies for the guys programming Pong.
It's pretty linear to automotive advancement or RF and communication technology.
- I put raytracing in the same bucket as shaders. It's nice and pretty, but I am not seeing it change the landscape. Combined with some of the machine learning starting to get into control of computer opponents as well as reducing effort to animate things, it might put some AAA grade graphics and game play in the laps of indie developers.
- If you had asked me 20 years ago, when half life came out, where the gaming industry would be today, I would have said we would have been in full VR for a decade at this point. And yet in a lot of ways we haven't come all that far since then.
- So like why Google Glass failed.
VR/AR main issues start with the bulky VR headsets and hardware and that is the very start of gameplay. So that hardware driven poor user experience has created a barrier of entry into the mainstream, which devalues game developers to invest into those gaming platforms creating poor breadth of game content which creates marketing burdens (ie no viral, no FOMO, no cross pollination from other platforms like active subreddits...) and this vicious feedback loop will continue to add friction to widespread consumer adoption in the VR/AR space.
VR and AR gaming will blow up the second a company creates a platform where the “controller” is easy AND socially acceptable to use/wear if worn in public settings. The second part will come more quickly and naturally if the company can brand the “controller” as a positive status symbol.
My thought here is that the next revolution in gaming will be created by first creating creative and fashionable controller(s) as much as it is about the gameplay itself.
This may sound like a weird response but look at Pokémon Go. It wasn’t all that long ago that it seemed weird to see mobs of people gathered together chasing invisible pocket monsters while staring at their phones. Now even people who have never played that game may just assume that an assembled crowd are just Pokémon players. So what, you ask? Well this means that Niantic was able to successfully create a new social norm as it pertains to the gameplay and controller ie multiple people in a group all starring at their phones while speaking in tongue - Rayquaza, JigglyPuff, Unown, etc.
And finally portability and ease of use also are core. For example if I want to hang out at a friends house and play Sony PS4 VR games like Beat Saber and my friend only has the console, I need to lug over a mess of wires, headset(s) and the hand wand controllers.
Which is why the Nintendo Switch is a complete game changer.
I think that is why the Google Stadia strategy was so controller focused while being a framework platform that can help lower the barriers of entry for game developers. Or ya know model Nintendo Switch success sans the on-the-go use case
- A note on your last point: 10-15 ago gamers didn’t mind the inconvenience of lugging around heavy CRTs/consoles/etc for LAN parties because the experience was worth the hassle.
I don’t see this same value or enthusiasm with the VR hardware of today unfortunately. It just hasn’t caught on IMO.
- I don't see AR/VR going anywhere, probably going to be a fad.
Streaming taking the Lion's share, dedicated gaming rigs remaining only for the most hardcore users.
- It's not really democratized yet. Most people own their own rendering machine, be it a PS4, Xbox or PC.
For AR/VR the only way I can see it happening is if there is a breakthrough in haptic feedback. Like full body feedback. And even though... But I'd try out VR porn with full haptic feedback 😄
- Amazon qwer1234atIf we manage to create interesting content and storyline structure generation we could increase game replayability. Something like Dwarf Fortress in AAA form would be really good.
- Maybe use AI to make gameplay more challenging? The game can learn from the players responses.
- Google AI SnotGaming will involve immersion. It will feel more real than real. Haptic feedback, you will feel every bullet and explosion. Eventually you will connect via a neural link and play the game in your head.
- AR/VR GaaS with advertising and social media. Though way less than 20 years. More like 5-10
- Streaming games.
The next generation of consoles will still dominate (Until about 2025-2028) with streaming taking a small share. But streaming will dominants in the late 2020’s.
Multiplayer gaming is already limited by network latencies. The fact that my local GPU and CPU can respond to my own inputs much faster than my inputs can sync with my fellow players’ is an odd anomaly. Gaming in the cloud will bring these latencies two together in the middle (raising my input latencies and reducing the syncing with other players).
Already, Comcast cable internet is at 10ms RTT. I see this dropping in half in less than 10 years. 60fps allows for 16ms per frame: that is total processing time for signals to travel and for the logic to be processed and frame to be rendered. Assuming the game can run reliably at 100fps, that will take up 10ms of the time, leaving 6ms for the network delays.
Streaming gaming will be perfect when latency hits 6ms.
Suppose a lower quality game can run at 200fps. That’s 5ms used by rendering leaving 11ms for the network
- New / ITjsmashing10-20 years? A new paradigm shift will happen, it will be coupled with the internet, just like telephony was; low-profile AR glasses at a reasonable cost, forget smart phones, computers, TVs. Everythimg will be in AR. Pokemon battle your friends? AR. Watch a movie with the family? AR. Real time GPS, structural architecture, airplane routes, and so much more. One of two things will rule it. It's up to us if we want that to be facebook (just an example) or hopefully open and free of ownership like the internet.
- SAP ManAs a hardcore advocate and developer for AR and VR, I don't think it'll catch on in the next 10-20 years. I think we'll see a sharp downturn in a couple years. It's cool, but not a viable medium for core games.
Back to the question, I think we'll see way more F2P and microtransaction models.
- Pinterest / ProductIjvd43moreAR gaming will probably dominate in the next 5 years — Pokemon go was only a taste on the demand for AR based gaming (kind of AR). The next wave will be AR style console games followed by AR style board games for longer gameplay + social gaming. I’ve tried the Oculus and it’s definitely a phenomenal experience, but will probably take on the Console gaming audience in the next 5 years. Price point is not the problem to be honest.. it’s more dependant on how open the platform is and if there are more game developers building for these platforms. Snapchat is going the AR social gaming route too.
- Pokemon Go wasn't remotely AR. It was turning on the camera (which nobody did because battery drain for nothing) with no environmental interaction except a poor procedural mapping of game objects to GPS / GIS keywords.
Hololens demos actually reach that concept. The environment and objects having some shred of relevance to game play is the mark of AR. I Spy on a road trip is more AR than Pokemon Go.