When is the next recession?

Expedia PiedPipar
Jul 8 36 Comments

Any indication there is a recession in the horizon?

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TOP 36 Comments
  • Susquehanna International / Eng Kristaps11
    It’s within some horizon.
    Jul 8 0
  • Salesforce / Eng
    Full-Send

    Salesforce Eng

    PRE
    Modernizing Medicine, TransUnion
    Full-Sendmore
    Haven't seen this thread before...
    Jul 8 1
  • This comment was deleted by original commenter.

    • New / Data VenmoEng
      Perfect answer
      Jul 8
    • No, this is actually wrong.

      Two quarters of economic contraction is how we know that a recession is taking place at that point in time. The recession doesn't "start" after we have two quarters of negative growth. Rather by definition it starts at or before the beginning of the first of those two quarters.
      Jul 8
    • New / Data VenmoEng
      Oops - I see. Okay, well it’s obviously not apparent until later. The clock gets reset, you see this all the time at the 5th month. Watch carefully and you will notice that we have been in one, that miraculously rebounds at the deadline.
      Jul 8
    • New / Data VenmoEng
      The question is “when is the next recession?”. If you mean recession as in what we saw in 2008, 74 years seems to be a predictable time frame.

      In my opinion, that was a depression and we are still working our way out of it.
      Jul 8
    • New / Other
      DuQvV7y

      New Other

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      DuQvV7ymore
      “We are still working our way out of it” is not based on fact
      Jul 8
  • New / Other
    DuQvV7y

    New Other

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    DuQvV7ymore
    OP, why do you think people on Blind would have some special insight on this ?
    Jul 8 8
    • Expedia PiedPipar
      OP
      All the smartest people are allegedly Blind! They can tell you with 99.9% accuracy when it’s going to rain in Southern California, why won’t they know when the next recession will hit?
      Jul 8
    • ICF / Consultant ERCOT
      I can't tell if OP is being sarcastic or not...
      Jul 8
    • Expedia PiedPipar
      OP
      I’m not being sarcastic.. yea it doesn’t rain in Southern California, Blinders wrote the codes for that forecast. Blinders are smart, so they should be able to predict when the next recession is hitting
      Jul 8
    • E*Trade / Finance cbEV72
      Nobody can tell, and those who can will keep quiet
      Jul 8
    • Microsoft / Media GqTJ43
      I’m an idiot and I’m on Blind. So I’m gonna say we’re already in one.
      Jul 8
    • New / Other
      DuQvV7y

      New Other

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      DuQvV7ymore
      “Blinders are smart” Is based on nothing substantive.

      It’s the equivalent of saying anyone with an email address is smart

      So I guess I have my answer.
      Jul 8
    • E*Trade / Finance cbEV72
      There was this guy rubini, the economist. He “predicted” the last recession, meaning got lucky that time. Then he predicted several more, after Nth failed prediction people stopped listening. He used to be on CNBC and Bloomberg all the time , I don’t see him anymore.
      Jul 8
    • New / Other
      DuQvV7y

      New Other

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      DuQvV7ymore
      The doom guys always “predict” a recession. Eventually they are right and are rewarded outsize
      Jul 8
  • Indeed / Eng orkaLyfe
    2020 Nov if Dems get elected
    Jul 8 0
  • Microsoft
    Haob

    Microsoft

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    d a n k m e m e s
    Haobmore
    Recessions always start when fall earnings fall short of expectations
    Jul 8 9
    • New / Other
      DuQvV7y

      New Other

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      DuQvV7ymore
      Nope.

      It’s 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP.

      Not the same thing at all
      Jul 8
    • Microsoft
      Haob

      Microsoft

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      d a n k m e m e s
      Haobmore
      I asked my financial planner and he said every recession officially started with a failed all earnings. Obviously it's more of a last nail in the coffin than a root cause
      Jul 8
    • New / Other
      DuQvV7y

      New Other

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      DuQvV7ymore
      I’d recommend using the dictionary as the official source. It seems your planner was just paraphrasing.
      Jul 8
    • Microsoft
      Haob

      Microsoft

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      d a n k m e m e s
      Haobmore
      I thought the question was how do you predict a recession, not retroactively determine. 🤷‍♀️
      Jul 8
    • New / Other
      DuQvV7y

      New Other

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      DuQvV7ymore
      2 negative quarters of earnings is not predictive either.

      Earning would be a lagging indicator.

      The best predictor so far (which is only right 30% of the time) is a yield curve inversion.
      Jul 8
    • Microsoft
      Haob

      Microsoft

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      d a n k m e m e s
      Haobmore
      That leaves out many variables. As you approach an event, the likelihood of that event approaches 1, therefore it makes no sense to say unilaterally that the highest likely indicator is only 30% accurate.
      Jul 8
    • New / Other
      DuQvV7y

      New Other

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      DuQvV7ymore
      I’m not sure what you’re arguing.

      No one is inferring a causal link, merely a correlation.

      This is all monitored economic data. FReD tracks it extensively. I spent a decade working in finance.

      Feel free to believe whatever you want tho.

      Cheers.
      Jul 8
    • Google / Eng QrJx75
      Your financial planner is dumb. If he could predict when recessions hit, he wouldn't be planning your finances... He'd be planning his!!
      Jul 8
    • Microsoft
      Haob

      Microsoft

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      d a n k m e m e s
      Haobmore
      Still not sure why you guys are conflating longterm prediction with immediate future prediction.
      Jul 8
  • Amazon qazwsxedc1
    Blind is just anonymous quora at this point
    Jul 8 1
    • Susquehanna International / Eng Kristaps11
      At least Quora actually has verified subject matter experts.
      Jul 8
  • Apple magikarp16
    around the next full moon.
    Jul 8 0
  • Amazon / Eng firefly123
    I know down to the day, and am going to put the info here instead of making billions in the market.

    It’s going to happen on
    Jul 8 0
  • Microsoft hshdkdhbe
    If someone know it, they can make more $$$ .

    Its unpredictable...
    Jul 8 0
  • Oracle alwzangry
    Until the Central Bank cartels are in charge of money supply and interest rates, the recession can can be kicked down the road indefinitely until the road runs out. Recession will come when people stop expecting it.
    Jul 8 0
  • Welocalize / IT
    DmqK13

    Welocalize IT

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    DmqK13more
    There is no current trends that show any economic downturn in the US. When you will see instability is if one of the larger economic powers outside the US has a big issue. Any of the current conflicts escalating, oil being shut off in EMEA, a conflict with China, or just something not currently expected. Regarding the election, that could be a big factor for the US. Uncertainty will effect the markets, lots of companies are holding back next year not knowing what is going to happen.
    Jul 8 0
  • LinkedIn kouhffgg
    if anyone knew 🙁
    Jul 8 0