How could you lose anything this year?! The SP500 is up 18% lol, that is basically an almost “risk-free” return since it’s so diversified. My total portfolio return for the year is around 13% (I have some bonds to smooth the ride in case sp500 goes down a lot), or up ~200k
@google obviously is not risk free since it’s an equity investment (hence I put it in double quotes), but among equity investments it’s the most risk free. It’s accurate to say that in any given year if your equity return is significantly below the market return (like op), you are a moron wasting your money.
Also, even if we get to another 2008 and equities go down 50%, I would be comfortable keeping everything invested in broad indexes (actually buying more by selling some of the bonds I have). It would be completely crazy to instead keep holding OP’s companies once they end up in free fall, because quite literally they may never recover or go bankrupt altogether.
It already happened because I have 30% of diversification in international stocks and they have been hammered like crazy the past few years. I kept investing on the downside, and the good sp500 brought up my returns to a number not too far from the market return itself. If/when international outperforms, I’ll be in a really good shape.
@ ashiok - correct. Even professional investors in banks buy index funds. Unless you’re aiming at blue chips (which also don’t drastically outperform the market in the short term) then individual stocks should be left to people to analyze companies, market trends, and global Econ daily as their profession. They do it 50+ hours per week and still get it wrong, so assuming you have all the info you need to make a solid decision by filtering stocks in Google Finance and picking the highest in the sort is a bad play.
Thanks GS. I’ve had to make a lot of sacrifices to devote proper time while holding down a job. Basically have to work nights and weekends. But it’s been a joy and I plan to give it all back to society like Buffett has when I’m done, hopefully make some good impact
Agreed. Don't try to beat the market, buy the market with Index funds friends... Only thing investors can control is diversification and investment costs (transaction costs/fees). Boring, not sexy...but out performing 90%+ of active investors every single year.
The aggregate gains of all investors will equal the markets gains minus their aggregate transaction costs.
I mainly trade options. SPY is easiest as it moves a lot with cheap options. I occasionally short stocks that are overbought or buy stock into easy predictable earnings. No custom indicators, just a news feed, and I watch volume and trends.
I'd rather not say numbers about my trading other than my profits are mid six figures. I only started trading heavily the beginning of this year. I was pretty casual before, mainly buying and holding dividend aristocrat stocks.
I enter into every trade expecting to lose money. This is the only way I stay sane doing this, it's very stressful.
Index funds friend... Only thing investors can control is diversification and investment costs (transaction costs/fees). Boring, not sexy...but out performing 90%+ of active investors every single year
It's forbidden to trade any derivative of the company stock during the lockup period. They can't definitely fire you for that as they can fire you for no reason... Every public company I have worked at have the same rules. Especially it's clearly forbidden to bet against your company as it would create a conflict of interest
I'm well aware of what it would do, I definitely thought about it, then I read my contract and it's clearly said I'm not allowed to do that. The company wants to keep your interests aligned with them. If you could hedge then you wouldn't care about your company performance so much, dumb or not that is the way it is sadly 😟
Fully understand long term investing strategy and how to balance portfolios, DCA, etc. What traditional investors who say you can't time the market won't tell you is that you are stuck timing the market no matter what. Long term strategy ends up depending on timing when you need liquidity against when the market is up. When you go in, regardless of how you feel, there are actually better and worse times to get in. On average, balanced portfolios will lower your risk over time, but that's literally one dimension of trading. Most of my stuff is long term anyway.
One of my old finance profs takes calculated risks and times successfully on macro changes in the market on an industry level. Significantly beats on a regular basis using economic signals that aren't simply technical.
It’s not -blatantly- stupid, maybe ill advised though. Hey if you’re a bull for tech you can double down. I’m a bull for tech on the 5 and 10 year but I feel like the market at large is gonna hit some.. turbulence soon.. that’s my spidery sense though imho,etc
I agree with @apple. Tech may hit a bump or two with all the bad (read: political) press on it. And it’ll have some waves if the market in general lags as well. But as ludicrous as its gains have been the last few years, I honestly think it’s only going to continue to grow across the 5 and 10 year outlooks. Simply because it’s continuing to find new ways to add real business value via apps, helping people find new ways to do things, etc.
Tech (via software) is still pretty underactualized in what it can do for society so yeah I think the stock outlook is “win until we’re sick of winning”