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https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2022/05/26/stripe-exclusive-interview-collison-brothers-95-billion-plan-to-stay-on-top/?sh=5786eac5a1b7 2.5B Net revenue with the latest round at 95B valuation. If we apply current day 5-10x revenue multiples, that’s a 12.5B - 25B valuation (basically DoorDash equivalent). Yeah, no IPO on the horizon, in case you’re wondering when it’ll happen.
That valuation is absolutely nuts. The private market got so out of hand.
Why though? Stripe’s main competitor Adyen ( publicly traded) has 1B net revenue and $50B market cap currently. Don’t confuse gross revenue with Net. Stripe gross is around 12B as per that article. 10x of gross is pretty standard
🙈
They know it will drop like a rock to reality if they IPO
Good to know lol
So what do you think Stripe's options are? 1// Devalue (and fire half the people it mostly hired in the last year and half) 2// Hold and not go public for now (and risk disenfranchising most of your employees who have stayed around for the stock appreciation) 3// Go public now and buy back stock if it depreciates (ballsy and will boost the share price for its employees and investors) 4// Other (please fill in the blank)
1/ This is a great idea if your company can reach cash flow positive by firing. 2/ Investors >>>> Employees. 3/ They won’t do a buy back unless they’re free cash flow positive. And by the time the company is listed, the valuation will be 25B give or take 5-10B. Buybacks won’t move the needle so early on. Unfortunately, this is going to pan out looking like a WeWork / Uber on the financial disconnect from the valuation. Unless there’s some massive revenue vertical not discussed in the article.
for #1, the 409a is determined by 3rd party (allegedly), so devaluation just a matter of time given the current market conditions
And there was one Microsofty who got offended when I said stripe real valuation is < 25 B Pandemic was exceptional times. After this recession or correction. People would be very conservative while investing
Don’t confuse Gross and net revenues. Stripe made over $12B in gross as per that article. To compare with Adyen ( main competitor of Stripe) Adyen made slightly to over $1B net revenue ( compared to 2.5B for stripe) for 2021 and is market cap is slightly over $50B currently after the crash. Around 6 months back, Adyen’s market cap was well over $100B
spread those founder shares around w the employee pool
If they increase their revenue they could grow into their valuation. It's more complex than that.
Y’all realize there’s a difference between net revenue and actual revenue right? Net revenue is what happens when you take out all the expenses smh. Most tech companies out there today have a large multiplier between their net and their valuation
Don't hype. It's taking out network fees, not taking out all the expenses. Including network fees would be equivalent to Uber including driver payouts as their revenue, and Uber doesn't do that.
Basically stripe fooled tech bros who don't understand basics of accouting
Market is valuing 10X revenue. Stripe would be valued at 30 billion in the current market. Late investors are practically screwed for next few years.
Don’t confuse Gross and net revenues. Stripe made over $12B in gross as per that article. To compare with Adyen ( main competitor of Stripe) Adyen made slightly to over $1B net revenue ( compared to 2.5B for stripe) for 2021 and is market cap is slightly over $50B currently after the crash. Around 6 months back, Adyen’s market cap was well over $100B
Plaid’s ARR multiple is 55x
Probably not next time.
Well, buckle up for the ride cause Plaid got some serious growth needed to reach the current valuation