From your perspective, what is the potential growth outlook for Amazon and Google stocks over the next 2-3 years?
Googl is no longer that 2-3x growth company that investors look for. I would look into the clean energy industry
Both companys’ core products have started to rot on the vine. Amazon’s quality & reputation is dying off. The company is increasingly relying on AWS. Google seems to only be good for killing off product lines at this point. And this generation’s AI appears to have caught them off guard.
AWS is why they have a not garbage balance sheet. They lose money on the buy stuff and ship it to you model. I think they would do better with a tiered prime that reduces shipping - you get once a week free, we make sure your purchases fit in X sized box(es.) Or somehow make prime video better than Netflix / Hulu/ D+ / everything else that has come out where it could be worth an add-on cost for something special. With Google, everyone seems to perceive them as tentacles in everything and not wanting their data to go into that machine. If they had an Ad free Google everything (search, YouTube, etc.) I'd probably pay for that. Hell mobile gamers would probably pay a premium for no ads in all the games they download from the Play store as an add-on in that model. But I feel Google slices everything stupidly. Upsell for Nest / Home products with recurring charges, whatever YouTube premium nowadays is called is not well advertised (YouTube without ads still would have in-content sponsorship, for example.) I am not sure if Bard will be part of the search bar, like Bing and ChatGPT, or a standalone product? I don't disagree with the products not really advancing of late.
Both are pretty cyclical, but also are very stable. I would say try to wheel them as opposed to just buy and hold.
This 👆. Two of the safest bet with decent premium and not an issue to get assigned. I used to wheel on these two with 200k collateral, made 6k-9k per month
What is wheeling?
There are many companies which will grow faster than these 2 companies. You may consider NVDA, SHOP, CRM,etc,. If you are looking for long term then keep buying at lower levels for better returns.
These companies are not going to be your 5+ baggers. With that said, I see them going back to their previous highs within a 1-2 years of inflation under 4% (fed will never get to 2%).
1-2 years 😂 not happening.
Amazon would need fortunate to hit 150 again by then
My perspective is very different thn others who commented here. Amazon : 1. AWS -> With AWS still growing 20% YoY in this economy, by 2025, AWS net profit will be around 35 billion and revenue 140 billion. ( that itself makes Amazon valuation at 1 trillion dollar ) 2. Ads -> Amazon ads are doing significantly better thn google & facebook , growing 27% YoY in this economy, will make its revenue 100 billlion dollars by 2025. & that is very high margin business. 3. I believe in Rivian, that investment will be multi bagger for Amazon, right now its profitability is hurted because rivian downturn but once it starts rising, they will post huge increase in EPS because of rivian stake. 4. Rest of all ( retail, devices, heth, stores etc ) -> frankly I have no hope on these low margin high cut throat conpetition businesses. I wish them not to make any losses once economic conditions improves. Based on AWS, rivian & ade business, I expect Amazon to go 160/170 ( 1.6 trillion dollar market cap ) by 2025 december. Google : 1. GCP -> this is going to be a game changer in 2024 and is expected to post profit for 2024. Gogole’s EPS will be high significantly once they start growing profits and GCP has lot of room to capture market ( not from AWas or Azure but entire cloud market if going to grow 20% YoY through 2030 )I expect GCP revenue to be 60 bullion dollar with 10/12 billion dollar of profit which makes GCP valuation of 300 billion dollar. 2. Search -> I believe google is continue to rock here ( chatGPt is nowhere close to monetize for MSFT ). But growth is stalled. Entire ads industry is saturated and full of competition. I expect to be low single digit YoY growth or even negative growth for its search ad revenue. 3. Youtube -> again , ads are saturated for this kinds of business and i dont believe this wil grow in two digits. Over all, gogle’s cash flow and its profitability is very high, it is historically trading at lows frok cashflow to price perspective and with buybacks, they can increqse the value of its stock value ( like what FB did ) and I think google ‘s management will pish for it. I expect google to be 130 dollar range by 2025
I believe that many investors have withdrawn their funds in anticipation of a better market. When the market starts to trend upwards, I predict that Amazon and Google will experience a faster increase, possibly up to 3X but not 4X or 5X, especially compared to other growth companies. However, I am open to hearing opposing viewpoints.
💯, not sure about 3x / 4x ( that is like 3/4 trillion market cap which is very unlikly ) But 2x by 2025 is very much possible.
Amazon is a suite of companies anymore and thus it’s hard for me to see them moving at 2/3/4x speeds. They are Cloud, Retail, Ads, Streaming… and Shipping (if they choose to be). They’ll come back once the economy stabilizes (many factors play a role here). Google continues to be a one trick pony. And now they have a serious challenge on their hands… they’re not going away but they have their work cut out for them.
At one point AAPL was considered just an iPhone company. PE below 10. And 60-70b cash in foreign accounts. And then wearables happened and services happened. And stock went up 15x. You see, cashflow is what matters. The core businesses that Google and Amazon have not peaked. Cycles will turn. The cash coming in will allow them to fight and figure something out even if it takes a few years. Billion+ users are not going to evaporate overnight so it’s just a matter of when they figure out how to minutiae this user base further just like AAPL did.
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