Amazon stock
Where is amazon stock headed in 2 years ?
As high as possible, please.
They're going to throw money at Amazon to experiment human robots like Optimus. Then its penis versus heavy load all over again while taking down the stock price.
Wishful thinking
Amazon has everything needed to become the most valuable company on Earth and is so diversified there is no reason it should not be. However, since Jeff left or the pandemic, Amazon leadership has stifled innovation through toxic cultures which punish calculated risk taking. As a result, Amazon leaders play it safe and follow the competition. Amazon is a young company, and many senior leaders are in their roles only because of tenure and having been in the company in the very early stages. Many of these leaders would never have been made managers at other companies, much less L8 or L10+. This has created a bizarre environment where half of the L8+ leaders are uninspiring if not downright tyrannical, and the other half behave like they live in constant fear of being fired. Amazon needs more capable and inspiring leaders who do more than talk about innovation in public broadcasts while crushing innovation in their daily work, and who are willing to have backbone in their interactions with the Steam and similarly listen to feedback from those with backbone under them. Instead yes men and yes women get promoted at all levels while many who think big and are customer obsessed are pushed aside. However I expect none of the above to happen and Amazon to continue to underperform companies with much stronger innovative and collaborative cultures with strong and inspiring leadership.
To summarize: Amazon will never be the best, but it will likely always be in the top 5.
Maybe. I think over time as tenured leaders retire and leaders who are promoted on merit replace them, the culture may strengthen and once again allow for true innovation (as is happening at Microsoft now, a company about 20 years older than Amazon). But that remains to be seen as leaders often promote those who most closely mirror themselves. Amazon is also doing its future an enormous disservice in the lower to mid ranks by freezing promotions and pay, continuous surprise layoffs, and enforcing a patchwork RTO policy. Top performers and top talent are currently incentivized to leave Amazon to progress their TC or careers and improve job security, and those with no external options (low talent and low performers) are being promoted because only they have tenure on teams where the top talent has long since left for greener pastures.
No chance of a crash. We have fine tuned retail, it is going to be just improving margins and $$$. AWS will continue to grow and all this gen AI fundamentally is about compute and storage - LLMs are dime a dozen. Finally, they will subset Alexa soon (KTLO) and I expect pharmacy / sub same day and grocery to pick up. Kuiper is the only spending project which wont return $$ in the next 5 years.
$217
Intuition
Once Amazon starts churning its CEO, and it will happen, the stock will most likely go down. With current setup, home grown CEOs are bad, outsiders will have no clue how the company is even functioning. Andy Jassy will be asked to retire in 1-2 years and there is no successor lined up.
Where the hell is an option for crash?
Very possible
Amazon owns physical assets. We're not nearly as susceptible as most all other big tech comparatively speaking. A crash is far less likely