Reference 1. No of Job Openings compared to last year it's worst. Atleast I was able to do 100 application even though it was competitive but currently there are like very few companies hiring. 2. Layoff 3. Stock market for tech is low
Absolutely. I think they’ve been lying about job stats and inflation for years. Inflation has been a lot higher than they’ve officially stated, for a long time. Just look at house prices - crappy homes that cost $100K when I was a kid are now $1M+. Regarding jobs, they play games like not counting people who have “dropped out of the workforce,” etc. And for both jobs and inflation stats, they quietly revise the data months after the initial release. Stocks, the absurd stock market rally - that just reflects the deteriorating purchasing power of the dollar. People have no where else to put their money. The federal government is adding $3T to the total debt every year. Take that away, and everything implodes. Our whole society is borrowing heavily from the future. We’re in trouble.
High rates and strong dollar also attracts a lot of money influx from overseas. For example, a lot Japanese yens are converted to USD so that business and individuals could profit from higher appreciation in the U.S., either bonds or stocks. This influx also made CPI harder to press down. Of course, Yen is taking a beating in the process.
Yes that’s one of the main reasons the US has been getting away with this for so long. As bad as things are economically, it’s even WORSE in Europe and Japan. People say “the dollar is getting stronger” and point to the dollar index. Yes, it’s getting stronger relative to other garbage currencies; but it’s getting weaker relative to the things we need to purchase to survive.
Well, Q1 growth is below expectation. It says 1.9% after adjustment on seasonality and inflation. But here is the tricky part - if they adjust based on 3.5% inflation (core CPI) but not the actual inflation, we could possibly see a decline had the inflation adjustment is bigger. Fed reserve is in a dilemma- inflation is still high so they cannot move forward with cuts; but then the ‘higher and longer’ rate is killing business borrowing and expansion, which could turn to recession (even based on the most optimistic calculations) very quickly - 2 quarters of decline.
Didn't we redfine ourselves out of a recession years ago?
No they did not, but that is a lie that keeps popping up on blind https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/jul/27/instagram-posts/no-white-house-didnt-change-definition-recession/
I think we would need to see the actual overall unemployment rate start to get bad or some sustained bad growth numbers come in for anyone to be able to claim a recession
There is a labor market outside of software
Yes and they are laying off too, so many businesses filling bankruptcy
I think health care and hospitality industries are doing quite well, so is defense. Others suffer like high tech, for example professional services. Banks are doing ok so far much attributable to higher asset appreciations