Bay Area housing data.
We have had several disagreements about MoM and YoY data, and bulls always want to look at YoY. Fair enough. Below are the 5 main data points and I am showing data for Fremont , Alameda county, San Jose, Santa Clara County. 5 indicators: 1. Media Sales price 2. Media Sales price YoY increase 3. Price per square ft 4. Price per square fr YoY increase 5. Inventory The bulls keep stating the that July 2018 had 20% YoY increase. What they don’t acknowledge is that May 2018 had 30% YoY increase. At this rate YoY increase will be wiped out by November and then we will start seeing YoY decreases.
I wish you were in Data Science / analytics. Good job extrapolating 2 Data points to come up with a forecast.
Curious- if you are so sure of the pending crash, would you be interested in shorting the housing market? Perhaps there is an index fund for it
Check my previous posts. I have been shorting home builders stocks. I had shorted LEN when it was at 65. Wait and watch it drop to below 30 in the next 2 years or so.
Not sure he is rooting for crash or 10-15-20% correction, alive what are you betting on?
LOL- You really have to be an ostrich to deny that housing is not cooling down. Any sensible person will tell that real estate market has slowed down and in fact gone down a bit. Alive - Thank you for sharing the data and proving the observations.
OP, this is a fair discussion. Can you put the query URLs in there so others can play with it and validate/counter your argument?
Wait until those 2019 taxes are due in April !
curious to know what would happen on pending 2019 taxes?
SALT caps on state tax / prop tax hurting itemizers, doubling standard deduction helping renters, capping mortgage interest at 750k loan
Maybe if we stop letting in so many fucking h1bs we wouldn’t be in this situation. But nope, we need more fucking Snapchat filters because that’s really what makes this country great.
Lol. Every thing wrong in your life is coz of H1B ? At least for real estate, ever heard of Chinese cash investors ? Also, if H1b are paid low wages, how can they buy such expensive homes ? At least be clear in your narrative.
Jealous person spotted right here
4 weeks more to see the crash!!!
:)
Wait patiently until end of November. The data is trailing by one month. Oct end sales will be out in November end. So wait patiently until November end to see the sharp decline. The decline has already begun, and wait and watch your YoY gain being wiped out by end of November.
No you said that the crash would come in two month, which is Oct. Why Nov now?
You need to learn to read and analyze statements. I know it can be hard for you but try again.
Alive is back and this time with data ! This is going to be interesting! 🍿 Waiting for homeowners to spin all of the above as seasonal and temporary slowness.