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Even without knowing the long term, with ESPP you can also just sell at the end of the period and get a guaranteed 15% gain from the discount, which is a tough gain to guarantee out of any other investment. So if you can, would recommend always doing ESPP and then either hold if you are confident in the stock, or sell and diversify all the money into the market if you want to take the 15% discount gains and run.
Yep, at worst it's a guaranteed 15% return. Max it out if you can.
Guaranteed 17.6% increase actually