Say you received an offer with 500k equity today. What future value would you forecast this at? Put differently, for those at Cruise, what discount factor would you apply to every dollar of equity vesting 12 months from now? Looking for cold hard truth. Risks: startup (could have accident any day), not public (current liquidity program may not last), possibly overvalued, etc. Benefits: currently liquid, only real competition is waymo, upside once company starts generating real revenue
You mean Cruise equity grants aren’t just GM stock??
Nah, it's Cruise RSUs.
That's rough. I wonder how many people get to the offer stage before they find out the equity component is imaginary
Cruise WLB is horrible . Unless you are ready to work 50/60hr week.. please stay away
I would put it this way. Don’t be too disappointed if it turns to zero. If you have that mindset, go with it.
Isn’t cruise allowing employees to sell on vest basically making the stock liquid?
For now.
Why do you think this would change in the future?
Ok, I'll take a stab at it. I'm a conservative person when it comes to equity. However, I have not discounted more than I do with public companies. Arguably, the RSU pricing is more stable than the current markets (I think it is severely undervalued rn, but unlikely to change). Liquidity is about the same as public company, unless you like to speculate/day trade. I would discount some for the startup risk, but the upside is higher as well. So, higher variance, same mean for me
I think the upside is limited, even if everything goes well for several years, I don’t see a path to 2x because of the insane costs involved (anything from hardware, equipment, payroll, etc). Even worse, I expect a price competition with Waymo once the services start working.
How much runway does cruise have? I gather that there’s a line in credit from GM for hardware and related engineering costs only of up to $5bn. Where do payroll costs come from?
I don’t know if the exact timeline is public info, so maybe ask the recruiter that point. It’s also available on Blind, just don’t know if it’s something I can share.
What’s the plan for allowing emergency responders and police take control of the cruise origin given that it doesn’t have a steering wheel?
Right on topic meta 🤣
I’d multiply it by zero. And there is plenty of competition. Almost every manufacturer has hands free driving already.
Almost every company has Hands free driving yet I don’t see a single company building a car without a steering wheel? Get informed a bit before posting rubbish
Hello