Tumblr valuation went from $1b to $3m in 6 years. I’m betting Twitter will fall from $44b to $50m in 3 years. TC 350k
Its possible. They are similar in that both Twitter and Tumblr were not profitable during the time of acquisition.
Twitter has a network effect so he has some breathing room to screw around and piss off everyone. However it’s not impossible another similar platform achieves insane hype and many migrate off. Have you see the video of him talking about Twitter with his Tesla engineers? They were mocking the blue check mock feature and saying the coding was “easy”. Are you kidding me? All of us have to study Grokking and systems design to be able to build a highly available and scalable feature and this guy says “it’s easy” because the idea is simple? Elon is completely delusional and on an insane ego trip. This is the same guy who brags about building a space rocket company and crapping on the competition, despite not realizing the other companies iterations are slow because they optimize for safety, security, and price. He’s clearly unhinged right now.
Recognizing all the complexity, why do you think the blue check feature is not “easy” from a technical implantation perspective? Blue check feature itself is already there. Add in a payments system (which already exists in Twitter) and ID verification (which a ton of finserv companies do).
Because you need to deal with a lot of customization and user stories with the blue check mark feature. On top of analytics, customer support, bugs, subscriptions, it’s not easy to build in some 2 week sprint like he’s talking about. Most of us are paid to often just maintain software and optimize. It’s like saying self-driving is easy. Isn’t it just image classification, depth perception, and a decision tree? Any good engineer knows about the 90/10 rule. 90 percent of the initial engineering is easy, the last 10 percent is the hardest.
From the rooms I’ve been in, a lot of his people are clueless in terms of engineering as it pertains to platforms.
Asking CS101 type questions… a lot of eye rolling. We think this is why he didn’t term ppl last Friday as expected, they didn’t grasp what they were doing.
This is evident as teams are left fractured, no continuity, no leadership, and was done with no strategy.
He doesn’t need Twitter itself to make money. He’s buying political influence and power. He’ll make up for whatever the losses might be somewhere else.
It's a lot like when Bezos bought WashPo, except bigger and dumber
We’ll see how that political influence looks when he has to tank Tesla’s price yet again for his fourth $1b interest payment
Wait until he destroys PayPal's market by making Twitter to be America's WeChat, and takes over PayPal for pennies on the dollar, making a full circle for x.com, and doing a Steve Jobs style revenge against the Board of Directors of PayPal for firing him some 20 years ago when he went on a vacation. 🤣🤣🤣
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I think it'll work itself out because he's not afraid to make controversial decisions to get things on track. Twitter was bloated, didn't innovate, and was mostly in maintenance mode. Valuation will drop but it won't be crazy like tumblr
You are correct. But you are also taking his gigantic ego out of the equation and assuming he will always do what is best..
I am not convinced that he has a vision for Twitter. He certainly has failed to communicate direction or purpose.