$GOOG is massively undervalued
Trading at 15x P/ 2024 revenue ( significantly lower than other mega companies) Search and YouTube still growing healthily Management change is highly likely, still has great talent What am I missing ? I don't want to hear the same old yahoo and Kodak comments, they are at the cutting edge of AI, and the woke BS problems will get solved soon
Until Sundar is replaced and they figure out how to move faster there won't be any meaningful changes in products or earnings to boost the price.
Some news states that he will soon https://m.economictimes.com/news/india/sundar-pichai-google-ceo-gemini-will-be-fired-or-he-will-resign-predicts-this-market-veteran/amp_articleshow/108007445.cms
That will be the happiest day in blinds history
Because if only trading/investment was this simple. By the same logic, $NVDA is extremely overvalued, $AMD even more so. If you buy calls on GOOG, you should also buy Puts on Semis
They have a single cash cow: Search (and Ads from that). Let's talk about growth: - They have 95% market share in users outside of China and Russia. How can they grow the user base? - Users are growing more impatient, they want an answer right away (like what OpenAI ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, their own Gemini, etc) can provide, not a sea of links to sift through. Thus volume per users may actually go down. - Even if Gemini can stop the user bleeding to other platform, serving cost goes up due to the cost to run the new models, Ad cost goes down (due to strong competition from behemoths like FB and Microsoft who likely will do whatever it takes to chip away those 95% of users), so margin is squeezed. How exactly can they grow? That's what Wallstreet is worrying about.
Search volume hasn't been affected. ChatGPT has been around for a year now. Informational queries were very hard to monetize anyway. For Commercial queries, traditional search is better. People are also using the Internet younger and younger. And more and more. And yes, there are several billion users who don't have access, and another couple billion who search maybe once or twice a month. YouTube is the only platform/format where creators get good direct monetization. Instagram is great if you're Kim Kardashian and have no actual content just a brand - you'll get a ton of sponsored posts. TikTok is great to be around. But if you want to, say trach a real class on widget making, YouTube is the only platform where you can make good money doing that. Most advertising is still traditional media. Every company will realize this is a waste of money. So online advertising can easily double. https://www.statista.com/outlook/amo/advertising/worldwide As for serving costs, yeah that is a problem and it's not - Google is spending a TONNE on optimizing traditional search and we're being very successful. And, reality is, we're getting better bang for our buck on that since hardware improvements now outpace the scale increases. On the flip side, yes, Magi is very expensive.
No, search volume is and will be more affected. I know that I and my friends as swe are not using Google too much now. The volumn will gradually get wave down for Google
I’m hoping for more market pessimism so I can buy some Google for cheap 🤗
I believe that there is a lot of scope for Google to grow even with a lot of Ai apps. The only competition that I'm seeing right now is perplexity because it is direct competitor for Google search. But Google has also been developing SGE which is exactly what q&a type of AI and I find it much better in terms of quality than perplexity even though the perplexity has a better UI. All the question is if SGE is going to affect Google search ads. I'm pretty sure the team has been thinking a lot about this and they will come up with a better solution so that it doesn't impact the ads business. However, if you think about it, most of the q and a type of questions don't have ads in search. About 85% of the search queries. Don't have ads on Google. Only 15% of the searches will have ads where the intent is there. I might be wrong, but this is what I observed in a lot of the q&a questions when people are searching Google versus other AI products. I think YouTube has a great future if they develop and monetize shorts well with the better quality content for short specifically. Cloud is accelerating at about 26 to 30%. So that is actually healthy given that the quarterly revenue is $10billion. So the products are doing well except for the leadership. I really wish there was a drastic change in the CEO/SVP level so that be focused on product execution rather than management.
But Google keeps rebranding and renaming their tools a thousand times. And keeps shutting them down as well. How am I as a user supposed to build any brand loyalty if it was Allo once, then Duo, then Google Assistant, then Bard, and now Gemini. And all of that is different from Google Chat and Google Talk…. And Google Home
> Google keeps rebranding and renaming their tools a thousand times. And keeps shutting them down as well. Thats what the leadership change(should be a cleanup) should bring-less decisionmakerz should hopefully make google faster. This unfortunately also means ICs will get laid off. But so many ICs have such substantial NW tied to GOOG stock, this may actually still be worth it money wise.
Woke bs problems won't get solved because they're a deeply embedded feature. Trust in google took a large hit.
Sundar is a charlatan that has never built anything in his life. He parachuted in and somehow made it to the top. There must be a lot of pot smoking at Google, it’s the only explanation.
What an ignorant post. Questioning his CEO credentials is one thing but if you haven't understood what he's built, read more. Sundar created much of the distribution advantage Google enjoys today - toolbar, chrome, android partnerships etc. Sure these are not sexy, but are amazing moats for the business.
Oh, he built that, not the people around him? Ok, we should all hire more people from McKinsey, they’re great when they parachute into a functioning company. I’m sure he’ll turn it around at Google when he’s done firing people.
Sundar is a follower, you are trusting GOOG to lead the world in AI, by being led by a follower. Good luck with that.
Google was a rocket ship now a steady ship only. It can sustain the wave but without new innovation growth is unlikely. Infact, it is expected for Google to lose more market share in the coming years. I would rather bet on Apple to bring revolutionary tech into market than Google. Apple having scrapped their car division to focus on AI gives a better market direction for Apple stock.
If you assume Google will lose market share, Apple and Microsoft are the best bets
More often than not emotions run the market and not logic
May be, but I’m GOOG case, an inefficient, slow moving, unable to decide leader is running the company. You need to get a real leader to replace him. He is acting like a McKinsey consultant, working for a fat paycheck, clocking in his hours.
@Stripe People said similar things when Meta 2 years back and Apple probably around 2019 were 52 week low.