H-1B CAP Round 2
Found on reddit, seems helpful so sharing here. Here are some thoughts (based purely on anecdote) from an EB immigration attorney. First, within our attorney threads (closed FB groups) most immigration attorneys are reporting lower selection rates for their CAP cases this year. Selection rates can be impacted by the ratio of regular cap to masters cap cases, but I think it is safe to say that most attorneys are seeing a 5 to 15% decrease in selections (our decrease was 5% but we have a high percentage of master cap cases each year). Second, the logical conclusion is that selection rates decreased because registrations went up. Last year there were 274K registrants. My guess is that this year there were 350k or more registrations (this is a guess!). Why so many? Is it because the economy is rebounding? Not so much. Based on what I'm hearing from clients, other attorneys, and the internet in general, the increase in registrations is likely being driven by people registering as many times as possible since it is so easy/cheap. (I'll leave the ethics of that aside for the moment). So registrations up = selections rates/odds down. Third, last year USCIS selected a total of 124k registrants. Why did they select 39k more than the 85k mandated by congress? Because USCIS correctly estimated that not everyone selected would submit a H-1B petition. USCIS estimated a percentage that wouldn't apply and adjusted the number of selections accordingly. Even then, USCIS did NOT receive enough H-1B petitions. This was mostly driven by the pandemic but duplicate registrations were likely a factor. As a result, USCIS ran a second lottery in August to fill out the full 85,000. Fourth, with so many duplicate registrations this year it is highly likely USCS will NOT receive enough H-1B petitions in the 90 day window (unless they predicted this and way over compensated with selections which so far appears to have not happened). This means the odds of USCIS running a second lottery are high (at least until we get some real data from USCIS). In other words, it might take USCIS 140k or more selections to get to 85k H-1B so there is still hope. Note: Love it or hate, multiple registrations is currently allowed and was predicted by many, yours included. I wouldn't be surprised to find out there were people registered two dozen times or more. Note: the 124k number is total for the year, I do not know how that breaks out across the two lottery periods Link: https://www.reddit.com/r/h1b/comments/mh8lnw/h1b_cap_round_2_thoughts_from_an_attorney/
reddit[Blind] Check out this post! https://us.teamblind.com/s/wYOpBXhL
There seems to be a simple solution. Uscis can obviously track which companies or consultancies are renegging on not following through They can use passport or ssn to remove duplicates and only have one random entry per person applying through multiple consultancies without letting them know which one of thr 10-12 applications is going to be in the mix. That way they get the money from multiple applications but reduce their own work load later by equalizing and not letting anyone make a fool out of the system Penalty on pull back. Maybe the selection of lottery just costs 10$ per registration but they can impose huge penalty like 300$ for not following through. This will hurt the consultancies real bad because they should suffer and uscis gets to be legal, just and then make even more money which seems to be their predominant goal here Uscis gets more money, consultancies get what they deserve and stop cheating, people who deserve it better get an equal chance in the lottery. Win win win all around
The system is totally broken. My hatred towards ppl who play the system is getting deeper
Simple: disqualify all entries for any person who submitted multiple
Some might have genuine reasons where they switched companies and now have two applications. More than 2 is definitely bullshit. Either pick the most recently filed one or just remove duplicates and only allow unique ones to pass through thr lottery. It's not that hard to change the system. It's just political lobbying nonsense
Wtf
😂🤣 trollololol
OP, I just heard from my attorney at BAL that there will might not be second lottery this year owing to the volume of registrations already recieved and processed by the agency (I'm guessing the agency here means USCIS)
I understand BAL attoroneys know more than me, but the idea with so many people having duplicates chances are always high for second lottery. Also my attroney feels the same way along with others.
Asking for a friend. It was her 3rd attempt and didnt get selected in the lottery. Her OPT expires in 2 months. However, if the 2nd lottery happens in August, and there is the tiniest of chance that she gets selected then, what would be the scenario then ? Since her OPT already would be expired and she would have to move back home or another country ?
Can you add a link to the reddit thread?
added
National airlines did you get selected.