Home Values - Bay Area
And I know the arguments are going to be : 1) Zillow data is wrong 2) Zillow estimates or Zestimates are wrong Estimates can be wrong but the current prices in comparison to last year is just a fact. For folks who do not trust Zillow, check this article and check the first one of list : https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=0ahUKEwjB95ja6bniAhXPtp4KHbazCfsQzPwBCAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.realtor.com%2Fnews%2Ftrends%2F2019-where-home-prices-falling-the-most%2F&psig=AOvVaw2RdTPYgVe3OHaIAh-grrjs&ust=1558981745000966 And the most recent one which realtors are spreading - buy it now before the IPO guys start buying :)
Real Estate News and Advice | Realtor.com®
I don't own a house, so I have no horse in this race. The 1 year change in your screenshot is not actual price change, it's change in Zillow's price estimate (Zillow Home Value Index). ZHVI isn't a reliable indicator - it's not a traded index, there are no market incentives for it to be priced efficiently. Case-Shiller (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SFXRSA) is based on real transaction data (no estimates), IMO it's much more useful than ZHVI. It shows year-over-year 1.5% increase for Feb 2019 - the most recent month in the data.. There's definitely weakness in the Bay Area housing market. But take ZHVI with a huge grain of salt.
Any piece of data which shows home values decreasing is wrong. I know Blind rules. So, I added one article from Realtor.com. But, I am sure it is stating wrong numbers as well.
And regarding Case-Shiller : Bay Area market is very different
Zillow is directional. The only person who has power in a sellers market is the seller. They decide how to price and even if the price is right to being the property to market. More liquidity as a result of IPO’s and high TC’s, combined with low inventory in desirable locations point to upward pressure, at least in the short term. However historically, over heated markets tend to correct, sometimes as much as 50%, until they bounce back to make new highs. Market will always rise, because inflation. Pace of rise depends on demand/supply mismatch.
Low inventory ? I have added enough pics. Go check Redfin data and check inventory graphs. While you are there, check Redfin median price trends as well and I am sure they are wrong as well.
Prices do not rise if inventory exceeds supply? Econ 101
I'm not contradicting that home prices are down - simply arguing for better data so we know with confidence whether they're down 2% or 20%. Your realtor.com article quotes list price dropping. Reasonable, but noisy. List prices depend on square footage - if smaller houses are listing, list prices will be down (and vice versa). Accurately measuring house prices is hard because no two houses are the same. The best indices use repeat sales data - comparing sales of the same house: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case%E2%80%93Shiller_index It'll be very interesting when Case Shiller for the spring gets updated. Even a 20% drop is not out of the question. But then, neither is a 2% drop.
Naw, Zillow is usually off but agree with the trend. Anything outside the bay is due for a significant correction.
Keep repeating that to yourself public2 .
Which part do you find inaccurate? Are you one of those permabulls who think real estate only goes up? I'm not saying it won't recover just needs a downturn every so often. And no I don't think it will go down just because it's overdue but rather the demand for fringe locations will drop. Of course that's just my guess!