Housing Bubble in Austin
Spoke to a title officer today here in Austin. The number of sellers that are not only losing money on their home sales but completely underwater and having to put up cash at close has increased massively in the last 6 months. I think we’re in for some mega real estate pain https://x.com/anothercohen/status/1784998493800615972?s=46 Update: many flagged this post. I just want to share the reality
SPY PUTS?
Only in Austin yet. The Seattle and Bay area are still hot af.
Austin housing market was a scam
This. These markets aren't going to cool even if rates rise
Austin market has been over inflated past 3 years. Austin doesn’t have land shortage like west coast cities. Seattle and Bay barely saw housing dip. Heck any decent house is going into bidding wars.
*not land shortage. Just need permission to build up
No dip; only higher than 2022 all time highs…
Austin has a lot of land to build and so when prices went up it incentivized to build which is what is supposed to handle in a normal market. When prices go up supply goes up bringing it back to down to equilibrium. Problem in Bay Area is that there is really not a lot of open spaces to build sfh and in places where it is, it’s too far from the tech companies. Also government red tapes makes entry also very difficult.
Good.
This is a good thing- more supply means more housing for more people
NYC suburbs are still bidding wars
Turns out if you build housing there'll be enough for everyone.
This drop is not even close to the insane gains in Austin. Friends who bought $300k homes 10 years back saw it go up to $1.2M. Now it is dropping to $1M. Sucks for folks that bought at $1.2 and having to sell at $1M but it is still heavily inflated and you are not real getting a deal at $1M
This bubble is going to blast soon
If it blasts I’m gonna blast
My cash is ready! Just not for Texas real estate lol