Already some orgs are in hiring freeze. I reckon rest of company will follow. If the rumors about freeze are correct, even backfill for attrition is not allowed. Revenues and growth will be down, impacting profit margins. Inflation is still high and we could be in stagflation or recession soon.. Shareholder pressure will be increased now, also due to merit raises. There are stealth rifs and reorgs every year under satya so might see some of that in June but I wonder when and how mass layoff rounds will begin. Sometimes I wonder if employee jobs were safer in Steve ballmer Era. The company has grown to about 180K people. Atlanta campus has grown, there is sizeable people in Texas in Dallas and Austin too now in engineering. Interestingly, everyone I talk to there companies about being low quality low impact work, I wonder if that will make them easier targets even though they are cheaper. Even though the company is stronger under new leadership, the fact that there have more cuts under a boom, is very disconcerting about the future. TC:220K
But Microsoft stock seems to be among least impacted, the income streams seems to be very diverse
Income streams are diverse but enterprise budgets take a hit, so will we. Stock is different. Stock shows confidence investors and shareholders have in us. If msft does mass layoff, stock could actually go up
That’s true, enterprises spend on azure teams etc. But for the already locked in contract I think it’s safe. Don’t worry too much, I think Microsoft is better position than amazon where retail consumer and small startup on AWS could cut budget in matter of days.
Didn't they just announce raises for everyone
Which orgs of MSFT are based in SF Bay Area . HMs ghost when I tell them when I say I have bought a house in Bay Area
See here https://careers.microsoft.com/professionals/us/en/l-bayarea
Thank you for your response. Have a lovely day
Dude this is the most stable company. Unless a huge bubble pops like 2008.
How long you been at msft? Go through old threads...
Microsofts probably the least sensitive tech company to economic conditions at the moment. Cloud spending is a cost savings in some situations as well.
Which orgs do you think, will be most impacted?
It's really hard to say. I think if you are the bottom 10 percent of your team, you are on chopping block anyway. Usually Companies cut rnd projects or projects not making any money. However in 2009, some headcount was reallocated to fund new projects.
My feels is this will be a bottom up recession. Inflation is hitting people hard who make < 75k. I seem rent increases of 300+, imagine earning 35k and getting a rent increase like that. Also savings rate and savings is dipping for people. Matter of time before the decrease in consumption from low earners will trickle up. This will compress profits and revenue. Why pay for office when Google docs is free.
This.
IMO if MSFT fired 50% of their workers, I bet if would not impact operations.
OP, I think you are overthinking. Microsoft is one of the most stable companies during recessions if it happens. Re-orgs happen every year to better align the businesses. Mass layoffs won't happen unless it's as bad as the 2008 bubble. IMO, You're talking about the extremely worst case in which half of the startups will close their shutters and companies like Microsoft and Google will have mass layoffs. This is very unlikely.
Even if it were as bad as 2008, they’ve got cash reserves. The calculus that makes the most sense is to invest in retaining the best talent, scoop up senior talent from other layoffs in the industry, and cut underperformers more aggressively. They literally paid cafeteria and maintenance staff when no one was there. If you’re doing a decent job, you’re okay.
Contractors are the ones that have to worry, honestly.
Which org in hiring freeze
Windows, office, teams... heard azure ain't hiring much either
Azure is still growing and isn't really recession sensitive. My team is still hiring a lot.