I have no moral stance, I'm just evaluating my Facebook stock investment which is over 50k atm. Id appreciate if we stick to facts and not hate or love of any company. Not to sound alarmist, I'm just now sure if I'm reading this right. So if a user opts out of app tracking, which I respect 90 precent will do, Facebook cannot even do email based targeting on the iphone facebook app, let alone idfa based remarketing. Even if let's say I give my email id to redfin and they know I'm going to buy a home soon, Facebook who knows my email id cannot show me redfin ads based on this. This doesn't need idfa, but apple prohibits this. So email cannot be substituted for idfa. This is basically how Facebook advertising works. Without this ability we will all see totally random dographically targeted ads. Like charmin toilet paper ads. Is my understanding correct? Iphone is at least 50 precent of facebook revenue. How is this not leading to a stock crash of facebook. What am I missing?
It might take a while this translates into a stock price correction, in the next couple of quarters when the earnings start dipping the stock might take a dip. This does effect Google but not as drastically as it does Facebook, if Google ups it’s game then it can snatch a big market share from FB. So logically Long G, Short FB, but what’s logic anymore in the Stock Market, lol. I suspect both stock will just keep going up
Stocks are usually forward looking. I feel like I'm missing something
Sell all fb stocks, celebrates for a big win for humanity
You’re all smoking something. You are a company that needs to advertise. Where can you go if fb is giving you less detailed metrics? Nowhere. You will stay and they will still be rich. I could be wrong but it just doesn’t seem like a market with tons of competitors…right?
It's not a market that existed 10 years ago and it's not something like steel or coal that needs to exist.
I would argue that coal doesn’t need to exist but ad markets do… lol
Is it already enforced in IOS14? I thought Tim and Marc are fighting on it
Not yet. They delayed it but it's in beta now
This is scary. We can't track anything on iphones for these users even if the ad is not for app installs. Could affect over 50% of the revenue. Largely speaking though, the impact will be on how relevant the ads will be which could translate to revenue loss. FB has had time to mitigate this in creative ways and set right expectations with the Advertisers and augment for lost revenue somehow. Overall there's still a gap though (the total estimated loss is still significant but not something we can't overcome in say a year - depending on the study you see internally) Long term FB is probably still an ok bet. But maybe there might be a bloodbath coming in the short term.
Seeing zuckerberg act like a child doesn't inspire confidence. Maybe they have magic up their sleeve but can't see what they can do
https://stratechery.com/2021/an-interview-with-eric-seufert-about-apple-facebook-and-mobile-advertising/ this article does a good job of explaining how it would impact Facebook and other companies that rely on personalized ads. I think over time many free iPhone apps which rely on personalized ads will die because they won’t be able to reach users easily. Apple and Facebook have a symbiotic relationship, where Facebook does all of Apple’s dirty work, and Apple harvests 30% on the backend just by virtue of owning the App Store. Also, the stock market is not pricing in the impact of this to other companies like Shopify, Snapchat etc. Apple’s own apps are exempt from this which looks very anticompetitive.
So if you believe that theory that fb and Apple are symbiotic, that fb helps grow the App Store which in turn grows iPhone sales…how exactly is it advantageous to hurt fb and reduce apps and reduce iPhone sales? Snap btw said it agreed with Apple on this and it also said there could be financial impact. Also you may want to look into something called the efficient market hypothesis which is literally the standard in terms of understanding markets and all info is priced in, especially when announced like that.
Apple sees how much money Facebook et al make on mobile app install ads and feel entitled to a cut of it. Apple wants to control who installs what. They want the app discovery to happen inside AppStore with their own Ads. These two articles shed light on what’s going on between Apple and Facebook. https://mobiledevmemo.com/the-current-war-between-apple-and-facebook/ https://mobiledevmemo.com/coming-war-apple-facebook/ (it’s from 2017) Snap is afraid to say what it thinks. If I were them, I would say the same thing because they can’t afford to speak against Apple. I know efficient market hypothesis but in this case, majority of the market participants does not have enough information/context to make an informed choice.
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Bigger market on android. Only a very small number on iOS Although android holders might not convert to highest click-to-convert.
US has close to 45% IPhone users, FB majority revenue comes from the US
iPhone market share in US : 45% Total FB revenue from US : 44% iPhone market share in Europe: 25% FB revenue from Europe : 30% If you do the math this affects at least 60-65% of the total FB user base and there by their revenue.