There seem to be so many companies competing on the same market (zoox, waymo, aurora, mobileye, nuro, and probably more I'm missing). How likely is it that a big portion of these companies are going to succeed financialy, or is it more likely to end up with one or 2 winners. Context: thinking to jump to one of these companies if I can find an interesting role, wondering how big of a career/financial bet is it to join a specific company. TC: ~410k YOE: 8
I really feel like Symantec has a lock on the AV market.
McAfee FTW
Albertsons
If a company can take all it will be through an approach similar to Tesla’s, where their AI will suddenly reach level 5 and everyone will be using self driving teslas, but this scenario is a wet dream. The reality is, slow and limited deployments are going to increase in geofenced areas around the world, mainly in the US and China. Each player is gonna capture a piece and optimize for it while slowly growing and scaling. No one yet has the resources or capability to expand aggressively, which leaves a lot of open markets ripe for a player to deploy in.
Agree. I think deployment and go to market of the actual business offering is across years. Think how long it took Uber and Lyft to spread across the US, and their tech deployment was mostly the app. All AV players have to retrofit or build buttloads of cars. Also in general I think there's room for multiple taxis companies.
Feeling great about Aurora Innovation's path. Its first product will be goods transportation (trucks) and there doesn't seem to be a lot of competition in that market. Overall I think there's a good amount of markets where we may downsize as an industry, but not as small as one or two companies.
I like their business plan. However, there are many competitors like Embark, TuSimple, Waymo just announced it's going to pulling trucks for UPS. but yes there is plenty of pie for everyone.
Yes and we're already pulling trucks for FedEx. I know about Waymo in that they're new to the truck space, I still think they're more focused on cars, but I wonder how the other two are doing so far. I heard a lot of good things about TuSimple and they were the first to go public. Embark seems have a similar idea to Aurora and I'd like to learn more. It's hard to compare. It seems like every company is targeting around the same release dates for a fully driverless version. I'm excited to see the results of these companies.
Everyone will do their own thing and make money. People will die somehow and then gov will help consolidate market
“Then gov will help”…. Ha. Hahah!!
Very few technologies have a single winner that stay on top for a long time. I'm thinking cell phones to cars to appliances (maybe Boeing and Google search are exceptions?). I think we'll see a handful of players get there.
Will need to be a group effort w v2v being a big enabler
The pie is too big for a single company