Tech Industry
Yesterday
461
Bitcoin is the only possible future
India
4h
496
What do vegetarian Indians eat for protein?
Tech Industry
Yesterday
663
Database companies that pay well for Staff SWE
Tech Industry
Yesterday
3170
1 vs 5 Million - no lifestyle change
Tech Industry
Yesterday
423
Single males, how often do you check your mail?
https://x.com/asanwal/status/1703492397739516068?s=46&t=ZAkIAAg-fU5RhodbA6hNxA Airtable is probably worth less than the total equity funding it has raised I'm not talking about the $11.7B valuation it raised at in December 2021 I'm talking about it being worth less than the ~$1.4B+ in financing it has raised Here's the math/data Airtable is on track for $150M of ARR in 2023 Per @CBinsights, it was doing $115M in 2021 That's 14%'ish growth per annum We'll come back to growth in a second But for right now, that puts Airtable's forward price/revenue multiple at 78x ($11.7B valuation / $150M ARR) Now, let's compare that price/revenue multiple with publicly traded peers in the broader project mgmt and collaboration space, specifically: Monday: 12.63x Asana: 6.61x SmartSheet: 7.98x Note: these are not forward multiples but trailing multiples for these companies. And so on a forward basis, the multiples are likely lower But for the sake of simplicity and to give Airtable the benefit of the higher multiple, we'll use those comps This would put Airtable's valuation in the neighborhood of $991 million to $1.89B Ouch. That's a 84-92% valuation discount vs that $11.7B val in 2021 Here is where folks will typically argue that the above doesn't consider Airtable's growth The logic is that Airtable is growing quicker than peers and hence will grow into that valuation and so should command a premium valuation multiple And therein lies the problem Once we layer in growth, the picture for Airtable gets worse Here's YoY revenue growth for the comps Monday: 68.5% Asana: 44.6% SmartSheet: 39.2% As a reminder, Airtable's growth is ~14% And here's their trailing revenues: Monday: $624.8M Asana: $606.5M SmartSheet: $711.9M Airtable: $150M (forward ARR) So it's public peers are 4x to 5x larger in terms terms of revenue And they're growing 2.5x to 4.5x faster Add in a further discount for illiquidity given Airtable is private, the valuation is prob south of $991 million
The CEO sure had a lot of hubris over the years for someone that built the ultimate ZIRP-era startup without metrics to match their sky high valuation.
Saw some RIF announcements on LinkedIn today from Airtable - well timed with this post
Yeah.. it will be worth x10-20 max…
Given the current topline and growth rate, I would say that their multiplier would be 5-6x on the public market.
All the revenue number is wrong. He updated the new estimate in the comments
Still $4.7B is a far cry from from $11+B valuation, no? How are employees doing in terms of stock options? Are many of them underwater?
Compare to competitors we are in the same boat. Check Asana/Monday/Smartsheet stock. Whole industry is struggling at this moment
Agree
That revenue number is obviously wrong and closer to ~$250m. That being said they are definitely regretting raising the last round. These valuations all come down to the story you can tell and it’s very hard to tell a compelling story with a bloated valuation. With better management, Airtable can still be an awesome money printing machine. Just not the jumbo sized one they were hoping for.
Smartsheet is the leader and will be fastest to hit 2B revenue
Are we there to $1b yet?
The numbers in this post are incorrect: https://youtu.be/UZtQcnt12SM?si=YQGkg0WvbyholVoH&t=117 Go to 2:00
It’ll be worth much less than that soon…