I am not sure why Redfin and others only publish the # of homes sold and median days on market. What I really want to see is total supply at any given point to prove that everyone is competing for very few available inventory. I applied Little’s Law to arrive at the inventory per month. The number is so low, literally only 186 SFHs available in all of King County in the month of February 2022 (1129 x 5 / 30.41666). It’s no wonder the moment I apply any filter on Redfin I’m already looking at only a handful of homes. #mortgage #housing #seattle
Let’s give it till Summer. If the feds don’t raise the rates to scare off some folks it’s going to be ugly for a lot of buyers
I believe the Fed’s comments this week of 7 rate hikes are already priced into the mortgage rates now. Hence why they spiked so quickly recently.
Aren’t you the person who lost the bid in Marysville? This incredibly low supply , like way more than I thought, helps explain the desperation in people!!!
Supply is low. But i feel like it is manufactured. Its just been bought by institution who are now controlling listings
Does it matter if it’s manufactured? Supply is low and the average citizens trying to buy are competing against each other for the few homes available. Insane time to be alive!
How do you know it’s institution? You mean companies turning it into airbnbs…?
Several reasons for this: 1) Home prices in Seattle area, especially Bellevue got inflated not just due to demand from people who would use the purchase as primary residence, but also from international buyers, especially from China (there is a separate Chinese MLS I was told where you may find some listings that do not appear in US MLS). https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-10/seattle-suburb-that-lured-amazon-surpasses-manhattan-home-prices https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/seattle-vancouver-housing-market-chinese-investment This one below is about ghost buying in Palo Alto— very similar behavior in Bellevue markets too https://www.reddit.com/r/bayarea/comments/37xius/ghost_foreign_investors_buying_palo_alto_homes/ 2) Also, current homeowners (myself included) are priced out for their next move— true, I can make a lot of money by selling my house, but where will I go since as a buyer, especially due to #1 my target markets are up too. Thus, you are not seeing the regular market with normal YOY real estate growth rates. For reference, my current property in a good Eastside neighborhood has appreciated 40% from previous year. However, the next property we had budget for has also appreciated similarly thus making it unrealistic for my budget now. The local government has to step up like Vancouver did and charge hefty surcharges from foreign investors to make this market normal again. The sad thing is homelessness here is increasing as a result of foreign non-tax paying buyers.
Very true. I have a few friends in the same situation as #2 and they are all staying in their current places since they got an awesome refinance during the pandemic. Do you think our elected leaders will be as effective as the ones in Canada?
We may all need to raise our voice collectively— someone has to take the first step in creating a movement to correct this market. Currently, it seems King County has no way to figure out what % buyers, esp. high end buyers are foreign investors as this information is not collected during property recording process. So the process will need to start with creating a system to collect data to justify a legal route. Perhaps when someone convinces them the homelessness link to it they may start initiating the action, I can only hope. The worst menace is from these ghost owners who do not think it’s their responsibility to pay their HOA dues or rent it out to just about anyone Airbnb style and make the safe neighborhoods unsafe. Clearly it’s time to initiate some new real estate ownership laws here.
You can look at new listings in redfin or zillow That will give the total homes put up for selling. Inventory is supply minus demand, i.e. how many homes are on market at a given time.
Looking at snapshots in time is one way but there isn’t a way to measure historically for a specific geography unless you do what I did above.
You mean this data doesn't give you a snapshot of how many homes are entering the market for e.g. Austin, TX, metro , since 2018? I am not sure what are you looking for. https://public.tableau.com/shared/P2HHC9BF2?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y
You can see supply here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR
Thanks. Yeah I only saw ones for all of US. I wanted to see the story around my area and I haven’t seen someone do it for the Seattle metro area. So I used data for King County.