Hey guys, I recently analyzed all US non-biotech companies founded since 2005 with 50M+ in equity funding before going public (to weed out companies that weren’t attractive for VCs). As I already own Zoom [bought below 200 USD] (did the same analysis + online user growth analysis before earnings), I now found Etsy and Peloton as two future high potentials. However, as Peloton doesn’t have ~0 marginal costs (not purely software) and Amazon begins to copy them with Echelon, they may be less attractive. Also website visitor count decreased last month. But Etsy looks great! It seems to have huge potential! Any thoughts? Sorted by Q2 YoY Revenue growth:
Is it worth buying zoom now? Etsy is good I have a small portion of it!
they have pretty high multiples already. I keep them. But I’m not sure if I’d join at such a high price if I wouldn’t be a current shareholder somehow (emotional).
But I’d consider Etsy. Even today they moved up another 5%. Earnings will be pretty good based on my analysis.
Peloton doesn’t have marginal costs maybe because their products are built in Asia and hard to get that number. Just a thought/discussion item.
I am not sure what their moat is. Lululemon bought mirror and they plan to do the same virtual instructions and fitness. Plus there are more economical alternatives. I am not sure if this fitness equipment surge is a fad or a trend
Amazon isnt creatibg echelon. They denied it
This is correct. Amazon demanded Echelon remove their name from their branding.
Good analysis
I did the same thing on forward looking EPS. Esty is getting expensive FASt. The other company I would recommend is Wayfair. 83% growth and still 34 in PE. Cheaper than MSFT. But in this market I don’t know if fundamental matters... it’s all fanboy.
Soulcycle just launched a competing at home bike.
I want to see some more quarters of sustained growth in Etsy. Their mask sales were significant. And this year the numbers are much higher because of pandemic. Will that continue next year? I am not sure. Also I think the founders quit etsy I think (plz verify). Lastly they don't have the logistics or delivery network comparable to Amazon.
Etsy founder quit 9 years ago So dont think it will affect anything now.
When Will you sell zoom
Not before the next earnings call. Their user growth is insane again.
Curious what website you use to get traffic?