TL;DR: TC will be flat for most of us in tech industry in the next 2-3 years. Here's why I believe this is the case: 1. A mild recession during this time period at the very least. I don't think we will see a major collapse like 2008 but there are strong signs of stagflation which will result in slowdown in economy / GDP / wage growth. And of course it could be worse if black swan events happen. 2. Advertising budgets are first to drop. This will impact basically all of Blind's fav companies with high TC since they are so tied to ad revenue: Google, Meta, Snap, Pinterest, Twitter, etc. Now they're not going to collapse overnight but ad revenue / profits will be flat for next 1-2 years which means hiring freeze might likely continue since they over-hired too fast (Meta) or lowball even if they have open positions (Google). I personally don't think they will do any firing this year (2022) but it may happen in 2023-24 if zero growth continues for a few years. 3. Apple will continue to do fine since people will always upgrade their iPhones (majority of Apple revenue) and phone carriers are subsidizing them. And their services revenue (App Store, Apple TV, and now ads!) is increasing and will continue to. 4. Amazon is hit-or-miss. AWS will continue to grow but online shopping which is the bulk of their revenue is a bit harder to predict. May not grow as much as during pandemic but may grow slowly. 5. Hardware companies (Intel, AMD, NVidia) are reporting slowing consumer and enterprise (data center) sales. May be no or slow growth. 6. Microsoft: I saved this for last since I might be a bit biased lol. Since they focus on enterprise offerings they may be OK. I suspect slow growth similar to Amazon AWS. UPDATE: adding a few more data points below. 7. Streaming: total market may be flat or grow slowly. But while Netflix used to be king of this hill, it is seeing serious competition from the others now (Disney+, HBO, etc), so while market slowly grows, each provider will see a smaller slice of the pie (esp Netflix which is market leader but losing share.) 8. Startups: pretty much fizzled out after pandemic-era growth, look at Robinhood, Coinbase etc. Might lose access to funding and we may see more layoffs from this sector. 9. Uber / Lyft: I haven't done too much research on these last of the FAANGMULA, but apparently Uber is saying it aims to be profitable soon? Maybe slow growth as well. Because we'll be in a period of zero or almost zero growth (ad, hardware, streaming companies) or slow growth (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft), and less competition for hiring, our TC's will stagnate along with the broader economy over the next 1-3 years. TC 242K
idk bro, recent checks Snap still pays insane TC and I have no idea why.
If their stock recovers they offer life changing TC
what exactly do you mean by โtc will be flatโ. like it wonโt go up and itโll stay the same per level?
TC won't go up, will stay the same (negative if you include inflation), and less opportunities to move to another company to get higher TC since fewer companies hiring and the ones that do will lowball.
If OP is right and we all just keep making $200k a year during a small recession, I canโt complain
for real
If I actually got my offer TC for the next few years Iโd be PLENTY happy. Now itโs more like toilet paper RSUs and worry of layoffs.
Microsoft will power on. It's hoovering up individual parts of the tech sector like security and identity. It's gonna eat smaller players for breakfast and challenge leaders like Crowdstrike, Okta etc.
At PAN we do see MS as a competitor but nothing serious right now. Their security capabilities are quite bad/immature when we do head to head comparisons with our own products. One thing you can count on with MS is that they're slow. Cybersecurity moves quickly.
VCs just threw more money at Adam Neumann. Recession canceled!!!
Howโs data protection SaaS industry looking? You have to back up and replicate data so I see it as recession proof especially as we virtualize more IT environments and data needs constantly grow at a huge rate. Data is after all the worlds most valuable resource.
Overall agree but you can level up, gotta find the right teams hiring even with freezes. All companies do some hiring
Msft will def layoff. Around 10K if I were to guess. Maybe 2023 tho
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Doesn't look like recession
Not recession, but stagflation, so basically zero growth coupled with somewhat medium-high inflation, so technically negative wage growth.
^sounds plausible.