1. Layoffs in Oct/Nov. Not too big but not too small as well 2. Within 6 months Intel either stops or cuts the dividend 3. Mobileye IPO turns into a disaster 4. Intel spins off fab 5. All of these things will drive INTC to $15 or less. What do you guys think? I didn’t add GPU or Server releases as upside because nothing is going to help Intel for next 2 years. And yeah, 6. Pat gets fired or he resigns within 2 years Edit: Yes I am ex intel. people are thinking I am bitter or something. I am not. I am just sad that such a glorious company is going in trash like this.
In a few years, no one will want their CPU’s or GPu’s. The only way forward and grow is to focus 200% into Fab. That’s where Intel will succeed, TSMC downfall is inevitable. China annexes Taiwan and then US will ban TSMC.
"US will ban TSMC", TSMC is opening and expanding their offices right here in the USA
fabless chip companies can't afford tsmc in USA.. reason tsmc succeeded is because cheap labor and govt money in taiwan
Y’all wanna talk about us so goddamn much. Keep talking
Biden has declared war on Chinese semiconductor companies. Intel will reap the benefit from this. If Intel could only have its yield problem fixed then no one will be able to stop Intel.
If intel could only: 1. Fix 10nm yield 2. Fix 7nm yield 3. Fix 5 nm yield 4. Build new fabs within months which support all above nodes and further 5. Start supporting stuff designed for TSMC fabs within months 6. Fix execution in fabs 7. Fix execution on design side 8. Retain talent 9. Not lose morale after mass layoffs about to happen, stock drop, low pay, people running away from intel at first opportunity 10. Do you want me to go on?
I think 10 nm yield is fixed..next is 7nm.. just saw an article saying new raptor lake (10nm) 13series processor comfortably beats amds ryzen series. I believe amd is 5nm.. imagine if intel fixes 7nm and 5nm yield then amd products will be no match to intels and it reinforces intels brand...
"dynamic island"
If China wages war on Taiwan, everyone is fkd including Intel.
2 will definitely happen and stock will sink. 3 is obvious but don’t think Intel cares if it gets cash it wants. Intel is not selling all of its ownership I think. 4 fab spin off in short term will be a disaster, especially when so much cap ex is being spent on it. Any possible buyer will want to avoid GloFlo debacle. 6. I cannot comment on this. If people think turnaround can happen in 2 years, they are delusional too.
Do you see any turnaround happening, internally at least?
3-8 rounds of layoff till 2025. 2028 sold to SMIC for $1
One other reason I can think of is TSM is a contract manufacturer with no designs of their on so they don’t compete with any of the companies they manufacture for. it would be relatively difficult for a company like Intel to convince fabless companies like AMD NVDA to manufacture their chips at Intel fabs.
Still a possibility. It’s like how MS develops app for macOS and Apple allows it to publish on their store. Mutual benefit
Software is different. TSM right now does not have the production capacity to meet the demand. So that’s where I was coming from, what if couple of years down the line Intel decides to reduce the production capacity assigned to AMD or NVDA in favour of their own chips or for some other reason. TSM is more neutral as a contract manufacturer and does not have a dog in the fight.
Intel stock will be in teens by end of January. Pat has to layoff lot more employees next year. During each layoffs, corrupt middle management let go good working employees to save jobs of their friends’s spouses. After each layoff more coasters are left and due to that product delays.
Given all of the subsidies that the U.S. is pumping into Intel, are you willing to bet against Intel especially when there is more than 50% chance that China will invade Tawain?
Oh, how did you come up with that 50%. If thats true, that's huge for Intel. Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm potentially goes to Intel. Sure there is samsung too.
Intel is no fking position to take any volume orders from these guys on any node let alone 7nm and below. Intel’s new fabs are at least two years far.