Below is annual revenue data during last recession. Many companies did not really experience recession. While a drop in revenue growth would definitely impact hiring, it should not impact current jobs or cause major layoffs. From the data below, I’m making the following not-so-scientic, yet somewhat-accurate prediction: = If you’re in a tech company that is performing financially well, you’re not going to lose your job. To know if your company fits the criteria, check if your company revenue grew by > 25% in 2019 in comparison to 2018. Considering how well tech has been performing in the last decade, I believe a recession will not impact us as much as we think. All numbers are in USD billions Microsoft - 2007: 51.12 - 2008: 60.42 (+18%) - 2009: 58.44 (-3%) - 2010: 62.48 (+7%) Apple - 2007: 24.58 - 2008: 37.50 (+53%) - 2009: 42.91 (+14%) - 2010: 65.23 (+52%) Google - 2007: 16.6 - 2008: 21.8 (+31%) - 2009: 23.7 (+9%) - 2010: 29.3 (+24%) IBM - 2007: 98.79 - 2008: 103.63 (+5%) - 2009: 95.76 (-8%) - 2010: 99.89 (+4%) Oracle - 2007: 18 - 2008: 22.43 (+25%) - 2009: 23.25 (+4%) - 2010: 26.82 (+15%) Amazon - 2007: 14.84 - 2008: 19.17 (+29%) - 2009: 24.51 (+28%) - 2010: 34.2 (+40%) Intel - 2007: 38.3 - 2008: 37.6 (-2%) - 2009: 35.1 (-7%) - 2010: 43.6 (+24%) ExxonMobil (Fortune 500 - NOT TECH) - 2007: 390.33 - 2008: 459.58 (+18%) - 2009: 301.50 (-34.4%) - 2010: 370.13 (+23%) General Electric (Fortune 500 - NOT TECH) - 2007: 172.49 - 2008: 181.58 (+5%) - 2009: 154.44 (-15%) - 2010: 149.57 (-3%) Data sources: statista.com macrotrends.net money.cnn.com
You cannot tell your prediction is accurate until it happens
Just wait until the spring unwinds.
You can frame any picture you want but the truth is that nobody knows what the future holds for us. In 2008, none of the companies you listed were a trillion dollar market cap. The past is not an accurate indicator of the future. You should know that better than anyone else since you’re using finance numbers.
Agreed. All I’m saying is that a lot of the hype currently is built around a company’s stock price (cough cough FAANG). The first thing people will start to do is sell the stocks they think is overpriced. Market cap is not an indicator of overpricedness, but it does tell you how “big” a company is. We shall see what truly happens when the stock prices of companies start to plummet, since a lot of the factors today are driven by that - which might not have been the case in 2008.
The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. -Winston Churchill
Mother of bull run will start from April once weather gets warmer or someone find cure of corona virus and the oil price war ends . Stock market is going to fly very soon -
What’s your prediction for LinkedIn if recession does happen
In 2008 tech was not in a bubble. There was relatively little unchecked optimism because of what happened in the early 00’s. 2020 tech is a different story. There are hundreds or thousands of startups with no clear path to profitability, TC is far out of line with other professions, etc. Most engineers were not in the workforce in 2008 so they think all of this is normal. It’s not, and it just takes something like a pandemic to bring reality back to the markets.
I think criteria should add +profitability too so if revenue growth +25% and profitable then should be safe.
That’s true. Also true of individual divisions too. In 2008 Microsoft was still wildly profitable but did some drastic cost cutting by cutting whole unprofitable product lines. So just because your company is making money, you aren’t safe in all of this.
"= If you’re in a tech company that is performing financially well, you’re not going to lose your job." LOL
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This won’t be a recession , it will be a great depression.
For expedia sure is
Hey 👋, wanna buy Expedia ?