Recession!!
What is the expected arrival time for recession?
Inflation is still at 5% and the target is 2%. Fed increased by only 0.25 points, so they’re now walking a tightrope trying not to cause chaos with mass layoffs while getting companies to put the brakes on price increases (aka profit gouging). They’ll keep twisting the screws to meet that target, even if it means layoffs and a serious recession. So anything’s possible. I think we’re in a recession now…
Fwiw fed rate raises take effect on inflation 6-12 months later. The effects we're seeing now are from their initial raises, hence the slowing. The risk is we stop raising rates too early and end up around 3 percent. Which imo is fine and it's time the fed paused rate hikes
We are in a recession and have been for some time.
Have you seen the unemployment rate?
Companies posted good results
Student loan repayments start in the summer. Auto loans and subprime auto loans are showing high delinquency on payments. Foreclosures on homes can start again. Spring of 2024 will be bad. Last fun fact is M2 went negative for the first time since 1933.
All of this ^ Also can’t forget the bank failures and the commercial real estate doom. Whatever labels you want to use, things are not great, and getting worse.
Firstly, definition of recession have to be fixed. If we keep changing the definition, we could never see a recession just like we are ignoring the recession that started last year. Yes, it started lasted year... Mild though. If it was acknowledged last year, we might have escaped with mild recession. We are heading towards a deep recession now Again, all depends on the definition. You could completely modify the decision in a way that you won't call 2008 as a recession
Twice per day
1:43 pm EST
When blind says collectively that recession is off
May of last year
You best start believing in recessions Miss Turner. You're in one.
It probably won't come. The fed is just going to keep increasing interest until more layoffs happen. Few more banks may fail but hard to see a complete collapse until fed let's off
Lol stupid take. A mild recession doesn't mean a complete collapse.