Stocks up 2024 due to rates plumetting?
JP says at least 3 rate cuts in 2024, rates will fall. Is it because they see the economy tanking? Using rate cuts to soften the crash. If not, then will we see stock and/or property prices shooting up?
Is it better to sell your stocks in next 1-2 months if you plan to buy house in the first half of the year?
no matter what's going on in the economy, if you need (are relying on having) a lot of cash in the short term, it shouldn't be somewhere where it could fall in value quickly
My vote is the Fed cuts 100-125bps, the economy grows at a moderate pace, property prices go roughly sideways for the next 5-10 years nationally (but some local markets will do well or poorly) and stocks have a mediocre few years and also move sideways. Housing and stocks are at historically high valuations, but I just don’t see what would cause either to crash
Stonks pumping now could be (over-optimistically) pricing-in favorable rate cuts or market in the near term. It’s holidays; what is being produced? Liquidity is sloshing all over the market, like a mini lockdown effect. This could be met hawkishly. Don’t discount crypto fever contagion.
Biren’s policies are behind the current state of affairs. Things won’t change for the better unless the current govt takes tough steps to help the economy back on track
Rate cuts will lead to property buying as lot of people on fence.
You cut when economy is going to tank. So how is rate cut good?
Look at history. Rate cuts are a reaction to economic woes. If short term rates fall below long term rates, it will likely coincide with high market volatility. Best of luck with your decisions.
Rate cuts *CAN* be a response to economic trouble. However, the restrictiveness of 5.25-5.5% goes up as inflation comes down. JPow has said the Fed will start cutting when they feel the restrictiveness is too high. If it's economic woes, they'll cut rapidly. If it's just inflation falling, they'll cut gradually
Inflation will fall rapidly and potentially go into full-mode deflation *IF* we get a recession.