The Greatest Recession (2022 - ?) Predictions

No insider information here, but sharing my predictions: Facebook - Won't collapse or go bankrupt, but will drop out of Fortune 100. Days of mega apps drawing huge revenues and valuations will be over as top of funnel owners consolidate power. Metaverse 20 year hail mary won't save in the short term, and they'll be unable to coast for such a long period of time in a hard economic environment until the vision is realized. Will also face pressure from MS with XBOX and Playstation on their own VR plays. What will help them short term is if US govt bans tiktok, which IMO is very likely as geo - political tensions rise as economic conditions continue to break down. Amazon - Will overtake Wal Mart as world's largest company by revenue and the gap will continue to widen as Amazon enters new markets such as medicine and health care. Will be forced to break up under immense amounts of pressure from coordinated lobbying groups by major players under threat such as Wal Mart, Costco, Pfizer, CVS, Walgreens, Amerisource Bergen, Kroger, Publix. Apple - Will be relatively "safe", but revenues and brand value will drop as Apple will be forced to continue moving into lower profit margin / income markets as consumer spending drops. Consolidation of power at top of user data and app store funnels will be huge for them. Netflix - Will continue to drop until it ultimately goes bankrupt and studios will pick up the scraps for cheap. Too much pressure from new competing services at lower price points. New original content is not resonating with the market. First mover advantage is long over. Nobody wants to pay for tier with ads. Google - A little more of an interesting scenario and search provides less ad revenue and people just search on Amazon or sites directly for information. Owning data on top of funnel on Android will be under attack as Samsung decides to move galaxy smartphones to tizen platform, which will dramatically impact Android's marketshare and power at the top of the funnel. Google TV under attack as well as tv manufacturers begin licensing out their OSes to other vendors. Microsoft - Probably the safest. Has great position of diversified revenue streams, but will begin to lean more heavily on XBOX as it moves to hardware and streaming apps and becomes a major threat to meta / metaverse vision. MS will help support tv manufacturers move away from or just not begin supporting Google TV and negotiate more favorable terms for user data on their respective operating systems with LG and Samsung. Chip Stocks - These are going to be extremely safe as geopolitical tensions with China continue to rise and the US subsidizes more chip production to come on shore in the interest of national security. Expect US to cut very nice deal with TSMC to move HQ over to US, especially if China/Taiwan situation escalates. This industry will be gobbled up by the military industrial complex and become the 21st century version of the defense contracting industry Fintechs - Expect most of them to go bankrupt or be acquired by big banks as payment solutions continue to get even more commoditized. Paypal / Stripe / Square all are under major threat. I think Paypal has the largest chance to fall. Big Banks will gobble up companies and talent for pennies on the dollar. Crypto - They're all going to collapse, and we are currently witnessing it now. Coinbase will go bankrupt within the next 6 months to a year. Tesla - Unless some major breakthroughs on battery and charging tech happen very quick I see this sinking fast. #tech #faang #meta #facebook #amazon #apple #netflix #google #microsoft Edit: Full Disclosure - Joining Meta in August as IC6 PM Current TC: peanuts New TC: 435K