- Interest rates are predicted to return to 2.5% by EO 2025. - The layoffs terrified new grads and other non-tech SWEs. So, less competition. - AI startups will flourish once there is a somewhat easier money flow. - AI seems unable to significantly impact software engineer productivity (I'm aware of the marketing hype, but after 14 months since the start of ChatGPT, I don't see much impact from automated code writing). - A much more flourishing market for various domains; for example, DoorDash and Netflix now have ads, and Apple/Microsoft search is strengthening. The current situation reminds me of the mini layoffs of the COVID era, followed by a crazy boom. Sit tight. It's all good. You will be rewarded for handling the stress of these last couple of years TC 530
LOL 2.5% by 2025. That's when I stopped reading and scrolled
Have you seen the federal govt current interest expense? Current rates are unsustainable, and will lead to a fiscal spiral. If you think inflation won't allow it to go that low, you're partially right. But inflation and yield curve control are the only way out. Inflation will be ignored.
Some folks just want to twerk.. they have no clue what they are LOLing @
Is hiring bar at google dropped really this low??? Interest rates 2.5%??? Where do you make these stuffs?
Interest rates are going back to 2.5 🤓🤓🤓
This isn’t mini layoffs bruh.
They’re talking about fed rate dumbos. Fed rate does not equal mortgage interest rate. Fed rate was 0 when mortgages were 2.5. Still copium but clarifying that
Fed is not going to drop from 5.5 to 2.5 in 12 months, after taking 2 years to increase it from 0 to 5.5.
Lmao this is copium at its finest. We’re just getting started amigo, but hey I’ll have whatever you’re smokin
OP is a delusional democrat, give them a break.
Bruh this is cope. Do you… do you understand how interest rates work? You leave them high until you *must* lower them to help minimize the damage of an ongoing recession. Part of the problem in 2020 was that interest rates were already at historic lows because they never bothered to bring them back up after the 2008 recession. So the government had very little leverage to help people and had to print money. Low interest rates are *very bad* if kept that way for too long. They encourage all kinds of stupid behavior. You’re probably not going to see sub 4.5% interest rates until at least 2030.
This isn’t true that the fed won’t lower rates until until there are signs of recession. The fed will lower interest rates if inflation is coming down to 2%. That could happen without heading to recession. HOWEVER here are many structural reasons to expect inflation could be naturally higher in the coming decades: deglobalization/reshoring, declining birth rates, rise of populism. In which case, the fed may need to keep rates higher than previous decades.
Actually, median FOMC member (the guys that actually set rates) prediction for 2025 interest rates is 3.5% right now.
Didn't realize Google had prophets working for them. You should quit and be a macroeconomist.
Would it be fair to say that OP is an outright Oracle?
Google probably does have economists working for them.
Sometimes I am jealous of these stupid popele who works at google and make half a mil. SMH 2.5% ? What are you smoking?
Agreed he's high. But. Your client sucks and it kinda pisses me off. And I'm in a low priority queue now for abandoning a game that kept crashing SMFH.
@google don't abandon a game. As simple as that. Which game client are you talking about we have 5+ games lol. I could be in an R&D project. It's like I am complaining about pixel phones while you are working in the ads department. No wonder you guys have layoffs
2.5? LOL 😂🤣🤣
Op is being too optimistic, that was a one time thing .
> Interest rates are predicted to return to 2.5% by EO 2025 The moment Fed reduces the rate by 0.25 Bidenflation goes to 10%. Another 0.25 down => 20% yoy. Optimistically speaking.