The data is saying unemployment is about to go up. Are you listening? Let's stick to the facts. At the end of every business cycle, the economy gets sick and unemployment rate goes way up. The fed intervenes to save the economy. The cycle begins again. It's natural. Inevitable. What happens when unemployment goes way up? Everyone sells. The only thing anybody cares about is getting the employment rate back up. To make the economy not sick. Employment controls the market. That's when the stock market unwinds. Capitulates. What if we could predict when this would occur? Well, let's find a leading indicator and that should tell us if we're close. Well folks, there is one. And it's close. I've been watching this since 2022. Patiently waiting for today. Say hello to initial claims. Initial unemployment claims are now behaving differently now than before. It continues to bounce higher exactly from the new support. This is a meaningful signal. It's building structural strength. It hasn't retested support since before COVID. This is what proceeds the real bear market. Signal is signal. Time to get defensive and demonstrate value at your place of employment. Make extra effort to be seen. Network. Protect your job. Most importantly. Show each other love as we go through what's next. TC: 400k #layoff #unemployment
Isn’t tech already feeling it? The hourly jobs aren’t yet on the drop. That’s the unemployment that’ll rise. Tech is already going through what it has to and obviously there is more to come.
Tech is expansionary sector so it’s suffering as expected. Healthcare, consumer defensive and defense are resilient in a recession
Correct. But I am saying the pain to come is in the hourly and contract jobs. Not tech jobs. Retail and entertainment are going to be hit.
I'll get a goddamn job if you don't post your TC!
I should’ve went to med school
With that language prowess, no.
Bidenomics
I never thought I'd say this, but I miss Trump.
Let's continue the work, says Biden. We're all screwed 🤣
I mean Americans are dipping into their 401k like crazy meaning crazy high unemployment I think
Or you know just high inflation?
Explain how unemployment addresses high inflation
You’re posting all these fancy charts and shit. Powell literally said his goal is to cause unemployment to rise to curb inflation. He said this in congress. This is not some secret insight you’ve been watching since 2022 or wtvr u said
How does unemployment curb inflation?
He did say this. A long time ago. And yet unemployment hasn't really gone up. That's about to change.
Problem is net immigration has fallen five fold since 2017. Boomers are retiring at a rate of 10k per day until 2030. As much as we all think about how AI and automation will replace them, fact is labor is going to be tight for the foreseeable future. Fed will really need to break the markets to see it spike up to 6% - which I don’t happening.
And on top of that gen z wants to be influencers instead of working in corporate etc
Prudential showing your age. Gen-Z is absolutely not becoming influencers in droves lol
I will treat this the same way WSB treats the average crayon inhaling 🐻
Correct answer
It’s no brainer. In order to control inflation, breaking labour market is the only way aka demand destruction. Fed will have to induce pain and unfortunately unemployment rate will go up. Projected is 4% unemployment rate by the end of 2023. I expect 6%. For .50% bump in unemployment rate , 250k people lose jobs So, we are looking at 1 mil+ more job losses
The US labor force is around 160 million. So 0.5% bump corresponds to about 800K people losing jobs. And 2% corresponds to 3.2M. How do you expect the unemployment to be 6% not 4%? Core inflation has already cooled down to 4.7%.
Increase taxes on Capital is another way to control inflation, too. Capitalism consists of Capital (K) and Labor (L). But who are we kidding, even educated people on Blind do not support Tax increase on wealthy (coz someday they think they will become "wealthy"). FYI, 500k Tc and $10 mm Nw is not wealthy. I am referring to .01% who are worth billion or close to it.