#covid-19 I still have some friends working in medical field in China, this is what I’ve heard: We have observed very different covid 19 death rates across countries: While Germany and South Korea is less than 0.5%, Italy is reaching 7%. It is even different within China: 0.7% outside Hubei and 3.4% in Hubei(Wuhan is provincial capital of Hubei, not counting people dying in their homes). It is likely not because of virus mutation and strains but difference in medical resources: When flood of patients rush to the hospitals, they will soon find out there are no bed to take them. This is like that all customers go to bank to withdraw their money at once, very disastorous. About 20% of infections develops serious symptoms(severe pneumonia), they are not likely to recover on their own: they need ventilators for oxygen and ICUs for organ failures. With hospitals soon to be overflooded in US, we should assume death rate of 10%. Here’s an article I found that explains the death rates within Europe: https://www.ft.com/content/5a2ffc78-6550-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5 About masks: it is likely not useful if wearing incorrectly but Asian countries still encourage its citizens to wear them. Reason is two fold: It will stop you from touching your face which is primary source of infection route and it will prevent droplet transmission from asymptomatic patients. There has been report that the viral shedding of asymptomatic patient is about the same as those who are infected with sympotoms. it was reported two months ago by China but CDC was still unconvinced to list it as primary source of infections. There is report that 92 infection cluster biogen meeting cluster was started by three presymptomatic infections: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread/index.html The world is fXXXed, be prepared people. TC: Two months of supplies at home.
Hmm, I saw a 79% death rate for people put on ventilators. If you are at that point, you are likely already dead.
There’s difference between orotracheal intubation and noninvasive ventilation, if it’s severe enough for the former, indeed out of luck
Thank you Captain Obvious.
Wonder how many died at home in Hubei
Only if one day CCP reveals stats from funeral services in Wuhan
I think they will and they will point to italian and spanish shitshow and say 'look we did so much better for 1.3 billion people population!'
Italy has more older people. The rate is proportional to age
12 million Americans over 80 * 70% infection rate * 15% mortality rate = 1.25 million deaths 20 million Americans age 70-80 * 70% infection rate * 8% mortality rate = 1.1 million deaths 2.5 million dead people is a lot no matter how you look at it.
unfortunately, Wuhan does not have more older people than rest of China
Masks are like one-time-use vaccines. They don’t completely prevent you from getting the virus but they significantly reduce your chance of infection.
N95s are fairly reusable for a few days if you're careful.
«we should assume death rate of 10%» You can assume whatever you want, but don’t spread your assumptions based on nothing. You would get a bullet in war times for a good reason. Differences caused by different methods of testing and demographics.
It’s a lot harder to justify martial law when your death rates are under 1%. Gotta get those numbers up.
We have no clue what the actual death rate is. We only know the death rate for people who have been tested and shown positive. We have no idea how many people have had covid and not been tested. Could be 100’s of thousands to millions. We don’t know.
Real talk. The mortality rate is irrelevant. The real problem is overwhelming the healthcare system. People start to die of all kinds of things they wouldn't have died of otherwise. Going into labor next month? Hope you don't have complications, because there's a a much higher chance than normal that you could die. People downplaying the seriousness of it all at this point are just fucking idiots.
Wait until there are riots to see an overwhelmed healthcare system.
Hopefully there won't be any riots. As long as we keep the food and medicine supply up and running, we probably won't have to worry about that for a while. If the shutdowns last for 12 months and people are evicted en masse we will definitely see problems.
The death rate is directly proportional to age. Nice tin foiling though.
It is, but there are other covariates. Get a clue
How is it tinfoiling to say hospitals could get overrun and cause a spike in preventable deaths?