These are redfin and zillow estimates for the same house in Redmond. At their peak, they were as high as 1.5M ish. Have prices really fallen or did these two apps just have shitty algo?
Both can be true.
It’s price forecasting, you can’t expect a forecast to be bang on accurate can you?
it’s based on comparable sales prices in the area and sq footage etc i think homes are very low volume datapoint so the estimates are very hard to be on point not forecasting
^ comparable sales price changes every day and every home is different (some are built better than others) It's definitely forecasting potential sale price.
Interest rates and demand. Rates go up and chops through the layers of pent up demand
Why is price falling from May 2022 being a surprise to you? Weren't you following the market? Comparable houses of my home sold around 1.4-1.5M in peak April 2022. Now they are selling at 1-1.1 M. Both redfin and Zillow show the estimate as 1.15-1.2M though.
I guess it’s hard to believe these houses were really selling for ~30% higher than current prices. I’ve been following list prices but never really checked how much they sold for
They sold for crazy high prices because of low rate. 20% higher price is still good deal if your intersect rate it 1/3rd
These markets were insanely overpriced
Still are
Markets are by definition never overpriced.
No, a similar thing happened with my home. Redfin started heavily overestimating price value during the peak. Though it also underestimated house values early 2021 when people started overbidding like crazy. It’s more accurate when house prices are more stable.
May 22 was a mad peak.
This isn’t much of a swing. $1.5 to $1.3? That’s fairly indicative of other HCOL areas. Mine was $1.2 last summer and it’s now $1.1. The housing market is restricted (again) because people don’t want to leave their low mortgage interest rates, so supply is driving prices back up.
Inventory is weird right now and can’t be reduced to a 2D graph or %age. The supply is now comprised of people forced to move due to their living situation, possibly because they view where they are as undesirable for them. The handful of homes still worth getting are still going 10-20% over asking. Ask any prospective buyer in the market. There’s actually a uniquely lucrative opportunity right now to get a good home at a good price simply because people didn’t show up on offer review date, but you can’t always get on luck. Source: all 5 homes I looked at last week were sold within days, all cash between $1M-$1.4M. All at or well above asking.
Sellers are still doing offer review days?
Not all. Majority are setting offer review dates. But good to decent houses are gone within a week for sure.
I think it’s about right. I think redfin is more accurate than Zillow
I have no datapoints to say which is more accurate.. but did house prices really fall 20-30% from peak in Redmond area? or has it become less competitive?
yes, they have fallen and now they are going back up.