Yeah we are down 30, 40, and some people are down 80%. What the dipsters don’t get is how things are fundamentally changing and that they are anchored at bubble prices in their head. The sp500 is around 3700, but the real pain hasn’t even started. A moderate to severe recession could put us at 2015 levels which is around 2100. It’s a long way but the market went up at stupid paces at the end of 2020 and 2021. We need to drop another 20% just to get to January 2020 prices when the economy was a lot healthier. Almost all dipsters started investing since 2008 and use the biggest longest bull run in history as their understanding on how the market works. It took 2001 for com bust people 13 years to get back to break even. Never if they bought companies like Cisco. Most of the shit companies now will go out of business ( there are nearly 1000 money losing tech unicorns with no path to profitability) and many of the ones that survive will never reach their 2021 2022 bubble valuations. The fed can’t bail stocks out this time. Any action they could take would be met with inflation. In the last 20 years of mild inflation we had lots of options. Now we have to just take what is coming. It’s going to last a long time. There are also fundamental reasons why inflation may be here to stay. In the last 40 years baby boomers were building wealth, lending, producing. Now they are retiring in large numbers and not lending, not producing, but consuming. The next 20 years will likely be marked by high inflation and slow growth. There will be stocks that work but not the same companies that worked since 2010.
Tl;dr
Market is going to go down much more than you think Recovery is going to take much longer than you think The same companies that “worked” are not going to work in the future Inflation >3% ( due to demographic changes ) is likely here to stay
Hmm k
Reaching 2100 will never happen, itll bottom down around 40% and bounce, youre post is completely wrong
You hope, you hope this ‘recession’ mimics the last few…
Well if it mimics the last recession (2008) it will drop to 2250 and take 7 years to bounce. 2600 and break even in 7 years (for a few months before going into recession again) if it mimics the 2001 recession. Of course the fed was able to print its way out back then
As if 2015 $s are same as 2022 $s with all the inflation that has happened
You don't know shit.
Easy to say when you have provided no claim.
I dunno shit either. That's the point. Nobody knows what will happen
Ok. What’s the tldr?
in 1980s stocks when up but only because of hyper inflation, so if anything you cant compare 2010 dollars to 2022 dollars
J "inflation is transitory" Pow? J "asleep at the wheel" Pow?
I don’t own gold, it’s going to drop a lot. So much for what ever you thought you knew
What does seeing the pandemic coming have to do with anything?
The combination of unnecessary COVID lockdowns in China and Ukraine war is a black swan event. Imagine if these issues go away somehow. Maybe Russia loses the war or runs out of momentum where energy supplies start settling. Maybe after the 20th National Congress, China eases up on the dumb lockdowns. Unprofitable tech companies die off at 2.5-3% interest rate (which isn't that bad historically). Labor market returns to something like 5% unemployment, which is more typical. Things return to normalish, inflation goes down to acceptable levels. Don't tell me this isn't an unrealistic scenario. In this case we have a recession but nothing like 2008. If you bought quality stocks and have been doing so, you'll wish you backed up the truck at S&P 3700. Even if it drops further why would you care if your timeline is in decades and you DCA into quality stocks every pay period?
That is definitely a possibility but Low odds. I sold 30% of my stonks and bought some puts (not with the stonk cash ). I am selling calls again what stonks I have left and using that money to buy big cash flow high dividends companies. I am not reinvesting in tech.
If your timeline is like a decade or more you'll outlast whatever China has in mind for its manufacturing and Russia's resources to keep up the war. Global economy will adapt. I don't get why you care if you're buying companies with strong earnings and strong management.
Ok.