What will happen to Google?

Doomsday Scenario: People start to use Bing with ChatGPT integrated, force people to download Edge. Google starts to lose the market share in both Search and Chrome. Google makes a comeback with Bard but 1. Data Microsoft has accumulated via first mover's advantage makes ChatGPT perform better 2. OpenAI, Microsoft's servant, pays $500k new grad TC for exceptional people and garners top talents 3. Google's slower process of development and red tape make it more difficult for Google to iterate the development cycle faster than OpenAI all contribute to ChatGPT's success. People, starting professionals and younger generations, start to use Bing as their main default search browser. Microsoft doubles down on this front and pays Apple more than Google to make bing the default search browser. Amazon Alexa and Siri start to incorporate ChatGPT as the core engine. Google goes from 90% market share to 50% market share, making it lose more than $50B in yearly revenue. This translates to twice more as what YouTube makes in a year. This makes Google more difficult to invest in rising products like Google Cloud, and it becomes more difficult for Google to retain its talents. These losses of revenue affect Google's other products that were offered free to other users like Gmail, Google Maps, and YouTube. Slowly the qualities of other products suffer, and max exodus of talents from Google begins and the stock tumbles down every day Wondrous Scenario: People have realized ChatGPT is LLM whose data is limited regarding factual or real-time information. Bing, which is ChatGPT's friend to gather this real-time data, is proven to be slower than Google's and unreliable when it comes to crawling and indexing information on the internet. Google comes out with Bard, and it heats up the competition between Bing and Google Search. Google's core technology in ML uses hardware TPU (Tensor Processing Unit), proprietary hardware developed by Google that performs twice as fast with 1/3 of energy cost than ChatGPT's NVIDIA's GPU. The hardware advantage makes Google a lot cheaper to operate and maintain Bard than Bing can do with its ChatGPT integration. When both Google and Microsoft released their AI Chatbots to the public, it throttles Microsoft's backend a lot since Microsoft is not used to serving this much traffic (billions of daily active users). OpenAI system constantly goes down, and users switch back to Google Search. In the meantime, Google Search can leverage the live feed of billions of requests per min into a constant training stream of its AI model. Google has found its way to monetize Bard as it has better ad targeting. Also, Google has exported its LLM into its own chatbot so which has made it into a product in Google GSuite (workspace) that companies can train their internal data/coding. With the wake-up call from Microsoft, Google has accelerated development and introduced AI into YouTube, Gmail, Android, Cloud, Search, Drive, Maps etc. It has ultimately made Google's products stickier and Google's accelerated growth in GCP has made a come back with more revenues from other product areas. Which Scenario is more likely?