Economic data coming in for the start of the year is starting to indicate maybe there won't be a soft landing. I personally feel we've already been in a recession for past year but I guess AI has kept the pedal on growth pushed down. Some economists, eg citi bank, are saying signs of recession mid year as consumer spending weakens. We've already had a lot of layoffs. So if we get into a recession mid-year, what type of impact can we expect in the tech job market? #layoffs #layoff #economy #market #recession
Have there been negative economic growth numbers coming in?
Well CPI print came in hot and job growth is starting to stagnate. Most importantly consumer demand has been weakening and they are starting to default on payments. As far as I understand the economy is driven by consumer demand so if we see that weaken it will have significant impact. This is all based off January numbers.
Like someone else here said “consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth”. I think that’s still not the scenario. And many of the other indicators are also a result of Fed’s policies
No economist can be correct all the time. Better to ignore them.
Entire world is reeling in terms of economy and US dollar is still sought after and in demand. It is a tricky stale mate scenario and on top of it - election year. My hunch is dems will pull off something nasty on the next 3-6 months, something unpredictable.
Then they will blame on Trump after their election loss.
Of course, they are going to do that. I am more worried about until the election. Good thing is rates are so High, they can start cutting them to provide relief, they are probably holding it hostage until closer to the election.
Recession has nothing to do with how you feel. Recession is defined as: 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The data doesn’t support what you’re saying. It’s incredibly hard to predict this stuff, people have been saying recession since 2022. Reality is.. no one knows. One thing to consider is that sometimes certain sectors can feel like it’s nothing but up and others can feel like a depression with massive layoffs. I wouldn’t generalize this to the whole economy
Thanks that's pretty useful. Of course my thoughts and insight are limited to tech sector. But we are seeing leaks into other sectors. Ex Nike just did layoffs etc.
It is easy to predict a recession will happen. All leading indicators point to this. What is difficult is exactly when, especially with government manipulated data being revised down after people stop looking.
Tech has been in a recession. People are stupid so they didn't think about how much impact tech employees spending has. We got laid off or scared of layoff and stopped buying cars and renovating our homes and other big ticket spending. At first this didn't hit the rest of the economy, the impact on employment was deceptively small (fewer people but with salaries 5x or 10x the average) But now the banks and car companies and construction folks we didn't pay are becoming stingy with their money. Next up this flows through to the service industry, the restaurants and smash businesses where most people work Think it's not a real thing? Recall that when this started tech companies were all five of the biggest companies in the s&p500. It's a large chunk of money flowing through tech to the rest of the economy.
Recessions are defined by gdp not your feelings. Gdp continues to grow...
GDP is a lagging indicator that only ever tells you that you were previously in a recession. It never tells you whether one is coming or even whether one has started.
A lot of layoffs? You can't even imagine what's coming.
There won’t be a recession this year
There will be a soft landing, guaranteed. If I later turn out to be wrong and any of you remembers to come back to this comment to dunk on me, I will just delete this comment so you have no proof. That's how sure I am.
Agree. The bigger risk right now is that the Fed will have to raise rates even higher to beat inflation.
Right after elections
Yeah. Very likely