Looks like china gave time until 2026 to surrender, otherwise will start a war on Taiwan and take it. Had 200% gains with NVDA, should I slowly start liquidating it? Not sure if TSMC Arizona plant helps and there would be no impact #stocks #investments #nvidia #amd
If there's an actual China war on Taiwan there's 2 cases 1. US gets involved full on ( unlikely ) it's ww3 full season baby with a much stronger opponent, more lethal weapons all around so pretty much all except defence stocks will crash. 2. US does things but not direct war: Nvidia will crash
So short Nvidia?
You have bigger problems to worry about than NVDA if that war broke out.
NVDA is overvalued as hell. Future profit booms are already priced in. Some analysis: A discounted model that justifies the current “$740 share price simply requires that the company maintain a monopolist-like operating profit margin of 55 per cent for the next decade, while also growing sales tenfold, from $60bn a year to more than $600bn.” Sounds easy right? AI is taking over the world so why shouldn’t the demand for Nvidia’s chips grow by more than ten-fold? One problem is that “the entire industry sold $527bn worth of chips last year, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association.” So demand that takes Nvidia’s revenues to $600 billion is highly unlikely. A second problem with Nvidia’s high valuation is the 55% operating margins. One analyst “points out that Nvidia’s unusual profitability is a recent phenomenon related to the very high prices pushed through in response to overwhelming demand: The EBIT Margins were all over the place from 2014-2023 (range of 12-37 per cent) and certainly nowhere near a steady 55 per cent.” To achieve 55% would require further cataclysmic changes in AI.”
$600bn revenue and 50% profit margins, but only $1.8 trillion market cap? The pe would be only 6.
China will keep bullying and they are known for it. This is their strategy, so the neighboring country keeps investing in military and not in economical growth. India is second largest spender for defense !
Don’t worry, Sam Altman will raise $7 trillion and move the entire island of Taiwan to the Gulf of Mexico
I can imagine these little emperors being the best warriors. Each advised by their families to hide and survive at all cost, including surrender. They are the only ones left from their families.
Op - just sell your original investment and let the rest remain for long term. Play with house money.
This is what I’ve been thinking too
Let’s be honest here. What’s China going to gain if they really started a war with Taiwan? They basically going to cripple their economy without really getting anything. The last big scale amphibious invasion was DDay and that was two major super power joining forces.
If Xi attacks Taiwan, he will get even more nationalistic fervor and obeisance from his people. He doesn't care about a blip in the Chinese economy.
I will bet Xi will start a civil war before he really invades Taiwan.