Markets reached record high, CBOE VIX really low, is this Feb 2020 Deja Vu?
Today SPX reached all time high. VIX is lowest in 2 weeks. I have a strong feeling that this is repeat of Feb 2020. Remember good old days ?? I feel market is super pumped up with fed printing money and super low interest rates. Do what you feel like but I want to protect my 401k. Here is what I should do : 1. Buy SPX 3500 puts for Mar/Apr expiry. 2. Put stop loss on non 401k portfolio. 3. Get out of crypto. 4. Buy volatility call options. 5. Buy gold/ silver leaps.
I’ve been racking my brain on what would that catalyst look like. Feb was triggered by wave after wave of bad news and no real light at the end of the tunnel.
Brother unless you can generate another black swan vix won't wont go as high as feb 2020. Vix rises when people are surprised by something, we need another black swan to reach that level of fear.
Low VIX doesn't indicate a crash is coming. SPY volatility responds to the growth/loss over the last 3-12 months, so it makes sense for it to be low after such a bullish period. High growth doesn't indicate a crash is coming either. If you want, download the price history and look for such a correlation - it doesn't exist.
Brrrrrrrrr we’re not even started. Wait till the stimulus money comes. Markets don’t just crash randomly. Think about what things can cause it to crash.
Not going to happen
OP, how did things turn out for you? Your predictions were correct and your strategy seemed solid. We seem to be back at similar VIX levels..
Will happen in a month Portfolio with 20% VXX at 16.8