What are folks observing?
Worst month in stock market since sep '22. The prices you're seeing currently are based on offers made in March or early April. Since bay area prices correlate closely with the stock market (specifically tech stocks), if we see more correction, then the housing market may cool as well, but with a delay effect. ^ above means price stagnation, not crash.
Meta, goog, nvda, AMD are near ATHs. Where are you getting info that market is bad? Go to an open house this weekend and see what it is like.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/29/stock-market-today-live-updates.html ^ worst month for stock market since sep '22. I did mention there is a lagging effect for it to be visible in the housing market
Extremely competitive for lower end like 1.5-2.5m. Higher end is relatively slow
Why are people even buying these houses? Get a fucking life. Save your money and spend it on something better. You can rent these places for half the price and take on none of the maintenance risk.
This …
This is the way
Market is slowing down a bit in the past weeks, less people to open houses and less people. but there are still multiple offers bidding for houses.
Slowing down now
People are right — things have slowed down noticeably during the last 2 weeks. A great objective measure is to look at days of inventory. Pick an area on Redfin (like the triangle enclosed by el Camino Real, Hwy 85 and San Tomas Expwy) and filter for houses for sale vs houses in pending. That gives you a fraction of how much inventory there is. Two weeks ago, we had only 14 days of inventory, which is FIRE — it is about as pro-seller as it gets (The hottest I’ve seen it get is down to 10 days inventory). Right now, there are 25 days of inventory available, and it is rapidly increasing. Way more houses are coming to market each week than are selling, and if this trend continues, it’s going to put pressure on sellers. Just watch the days of inventory and the momentum switches. If days of inventory starts rapidly decreasing, maybe it’s time to put out that stronger offer. But if days of inventory are rapidly increasing — as they are now — buyers have more leverage, and at this moment at least it looks like buyers are going to have even more leverage in two weeks. It be interesting to watch — **if** this trend continues, and in two weeks we have 6 weeks of inventory, will supply dry up because sellers are dissatisfied, or will a flood of homes hit the market as sellers panic? We will see.
There is always crazy bidding wars for starter homes on good school districts between $1.7-3M. Now there is some competition even for condos/TH in the $800k-1.7M segment. The $4M segment is where it’s not as bad
School district doesn't matter now, it's crazy even in bad School Districts which have better location/commute/access.
Partially true. It is hotter at the lower end. But I’d say it WAS hot with bidding wars on starter homes, it has cooled off considerably in the recent weeks. Looking at what prices sold for a month ago is helpful, but you have to look at changes in days of inventory for the most recent shifts.
Depends on the price point. Anything under 2.5m is crazy. Above that depends on the neighborhood, location etc.
TLDR: Bidding wars in popular area due to extremely low inventory.
What are the popular areas? West San Jose, Cupertino, Palo Alto, where else?
.. sunnyvale, los gatos, saratoga