Does self driving really have a future?

Google / Engtotoro36
Feb 6 239 Comments

There are so many companies working on self driving technology now. All the tech used here looks really fancy and interesting. But I am worried that if one day people find out that commercial application of such technology is limited by the nature of driving itself, all hot money will leave this area(Given interestes rate is rising there will be less hot money in the future ). What's your opinion on this?

comments

Want to comment? LOG IN or SIGN UP
TOP 239 Comments
  • Intuit osnu9&
    🍿
    Feb 612
    • Amazon Izzypop
      Because it’s funny.
      Feb 6
    • Cisco / QAStoneHeart
      coz too many normies.
      Feb 6
    • Amazon Izzypop
      Because it says “I’m just going to sit back and watch the shitshow whilest eating my popcorn”
      Feb 6
    • Veritas hike
      He/she says I have pop corn and you all carry (discussion) on
      Feb 6
    • Amazon Izzypop
      Yep, pretty much
      Feb 6
    • Amazon Izzypop
      Feb 6
    • Apple / EngBangOver
      And?
      Feb 6
    • Nvidia coolpm
      This is definitely an interesting topic and would be enlightening to an extent but commenting 🍿is poor taste.
      Feb 6
    • Apple / EngBangOver
      That doesn’t answer my question: why the likes?
      Feb 6
    • Tesla fallen
      To directly answer your question: the reason why the “🍿” comment has 80 likes as of 20:31 2/12/19, is because 80 different users on Blind clicked or tapped on the “👍🏻” icon/button below the comment in question.... now 81 with mine
      Feb 12
  • Intel / Eng
    D.J.Trump

    IntelEng

    PRE
    Microsoft
    D.J.Trumpmore
    This tech still got long way to go. I would not bet a computer to drive my car. All those radar and tech in the car will also cost a lot of money for the average joe to afford.
    Feb 621
    • Noone wanted automatic elevators when they first came out either, even though drivers frequently got people chopped in half. It'll seem like it's still really far off and then suddenly it'll be everywhere.
      Feb 6
    • Microsoft pJcW86
      I trust a shitty and predictable computer to drive over a dumb drunk meatbag that randomly brakes and changes lanes.
      Feb 6
    • Google / Eng
      prodaccess

      GoogleEng

      BIO
      Top Contributor or GTFO
      prodaccessmore
      Yet, you don't blink an eye to let a computer pilot the planes you fly.
      Feb 6
    • Average joe will not own a car. It will all be shared. Why buy a car if it’s available in an app within 5 minutes for much cheaper
      Feb 6
    • Microsoft Arched
      @berrytree That couldn't be farther from the truth... You sound like a person who lives in Seattle and doesn't own a car yourself and has a jaded view of the 'average joe'. Over 76% of commuters in the United States travel alone to work in their own car. Your average car owner spends close to $500/month for their car payment less $100-$200 per month for insurance. 5 days a week, your monthly cost for a car-to-go service is about $900. That's IF you can even find an available car for your destination and source every day which would be aggravating to manage if you don't live in some down town area like Seattle. Something like Uber would cost you around $1700/month to use 5 days a week to commute for an average commuter distance.. So from a numbers and statistics perspective, not owning a car is not only less convenient, but it's also way more expensive if you consider the average joe..
      Feb 6
    • Microsoft BOVi42
      @picasso7 https://youtu.be/Bx08yRsR9ow self driving car on Moscow streets after heavy snowfall
      Feb 6
    • Booking.com B.bla
      @arched you are thinking of todays prices, Uber/taxi are expensive because you pay for a driver. Driverless cars can be theoretically shared 5 days a week at cheaper than owning a car.
      Feb 6
    • New / Engjo2305
      @pJcW86 Drunk or not, I wouldn't want those shitty and predictable computers to drive over anybody! ;)
      Feb 7
    • Microsoft Arched
      @B.bla That goes back to some other's points about infrastructure... Today's car-to-go services where you aren't paying for a driver are still more expensive than owning a car and there's very little density of these cars in suburban areas to make it a realistic option for your average joe. So yeah, theoretically, if you want to push for taxing the crap out of everyone to pay and have enough of these cars on the road to make it a realistic option then maybe it could be cheaper, but most people are likely to own a self driving car by the time that happens in my opinion.
      Feb 7
    • LinkedIn engdir
      A company like Waymo or Uber could buy *your* car from you, retrofit it, and charge you per mile to drive you to work every day. Other than the cost of the sensors (which is already coming down quickly), it could be cost-neutral to operate a self-driving taxi service without any car sharing. So it's already at least neutral with current car ownership costs.

      Plus:
      * You could share them, even in very remote areas, occasionally at least
      * They can do things like drop you off (valet parking) and get gas/charge on their own, saving you time
      * You can do other stuff while it drives, like watch a movie or have a video call, adding value
      * Shared cars can be much smaller (1-2 seater, not 4-5) because 90% or more of rides fit. You can order XL for the rare family trips.
      * Smaller cars means cheaper gas/electricity, less road congestion, etc. Ends up being cheaper for that reason alone.
      * Self-driven cars are, or at least will be, safer, meaning much cheaper insurance and repair costs.

      So self-driving taxis are necessarily cheaper, in the long run, even for very rural areas.
      Feb 7
  • Facebook Whatevenat
    You tell us waymo
    Feb 60
  • Amazon md jesus
    It is the future. In trucking, running shuttles, buses and cabs. I still believe personal self driving car is still at a distant future. The issue is not the technology, it's rather the regulation and safety requirements.
    Feb 68
    • Amazon Izzypop
      Oh come on, the issue is also the technology. How long have we had speech recognition (dragon naturally speaking anyone) and yet it still sucks. Regulation exists because not everyone has the same level of confidence as the typical yuppie overconfident software engineer. We’ve had autopilot for a while too- and even ones that can land the plane itself. How many people do you know that would get in a plane without a pilot?
      Feb 6
    • Microsoft AXYDLBAAXR
      Waymo has driven how many miles without causing an accident? The tech is not here yet but it's close, only a few years for defined routes in normal weather.

      Who the hell still uses the word "yuppie"?
      Feb 6
    • Square / EngSQ
      Izzypop, you sound like the old man saying "get off my lawn".
      Feb 6
    • New / Englzf66
      The tech isn't the issue, it's the infrastructure.
      Feb 6
    • Amazon Izzypop
      Infrastructure is also part of tech- and yeah, we actually joke about saying get off my lawn too... Sue me.
      Feb 6
    • New / R&Dzorkan
      The tech has been around for years. Self driving is not a particularly hard problem. There's a lot of startups in the space because most ML grad students can get a prototype working for their local area in just a few months.

      The real challenge is productionizing and testing the cars at a global scale. Making it work in all regions and all possible scenarios is a big ask, and it will take time to get there in a safe manner. It's compounded by the fact that debugging ML systems is not a deterministic process -you can't just look at a stack trace and figure out what's going on when the car crashes.
      Feb 6
    • New / Engjo2305
      @zorkan it's actually a fairly common grad ML class project. I think with advances in ML and AI we will successfully teach a computer to (safely) drive a car within a decade.
      Feb 7
    • Splunk KE94107
      We all fly on self-flying planes, using 1980s technologies. Often it’s the pilots who are scarier than the computers.
      Feb 7
  • Microsoft jjpf13
    It’s all going great until you realize cars can’t drive in 1” of snow, ice, unpaved roads, streets which are not clearly marked, and currently can’t make many left-turns. All we need are perfectly paved and marked roads and an endless summer.
    Feb 614
    • Microsoft pJcW86
      What? Humans don't know how to drive in snow anyways in areas where it didn't snow regularly, I'd say a computer is an improvement.
      Feb 6
    • Microsoft jjpf13
      In California it doesn’t snow regularly, people still like to hit the slopes. Self-driving car means you don’t have a steering wheel. Adaptive Cruise Control is nice, so is Lane Keep Assist, Collision Avoidance, etc, but it’s not self-driving now is it?

      Tesla’s are overpriced death-traps. Anyone choosing a Tesla over an S-Klasse is an idiot!
      Feb 6
    • Microsoft FBisEvil
      You’re right, jjpf13. Autopilot is a misnomer with the intent to mislead. So are the claims of FSD.
      Feb 6
    • Jjpf13 LMAO, over priced means you can afford one... Get a life and let people buy what that want to buy with their money you idiot.
      Feb 6
    • Microsoft BOVi42
      You are not right. https://youtu.be/Bx08yRsR9ow
      Feb 6
    • Microsoft undefined
      @jjpf13 BS. Self-driving has 5 internationally defined “levels”, the highest one is steering wheel *optional*. No one is expecting a current Model 3 to reach Level 5 let alone in all situations. Certainly no one is going to remove their steering wheel.

      “Overpriced death-traps”.
      Okay, you’re clearly not a serious person.

      @FBisEvil Intent to mislead? Do you have any idea how AutoPilot on airplanes works? No, it’s not a misnomer or any intent to mislead. It’s branding. Do you think any of the competitive systems (like Traffic Jam Pilot, etc) are intending to mislead as well? Why?

      What claims of FSD are you talking about?
      Feb 7
    • Microsoft FBisEvil
      Do a google search. Do I have to give you search terms bc he says that garbage all the time. If you google Musk Recode interview and find the second occurrence of ‘full self’ you’ll see him claim it’s coming next year. Utter BS
      Feb 7
    • Microsoft undefined
      Musk is overly optimistic and aggressive in his roadmap projections, that’s nothing new. That isn’t “fraud”. He should hedge his statements more maybe, but he does drive results.

      Most of his statements, like the Recode one I believe, are actually “when will FSD buyers start getting something differentiated from EAP”. That’s very different from when FSD is “done”. It will come incrementally, and improve over time just as EAP and NavOnAP have.

      Your attempts to spread FUD must be motivated by something, what might that be?
      Feb 7
    • Google SundarCEO
      Microsoft dude, slow down with your acronyms
      Feb 8
    • Microsoft FBisEvil
      FSD = Full Self Driving

      Since undefined didn’t mention Musks actual quote and instead made up an excuse like a fan boi, I’ll provide a direct quote.

      “You know, I think we’ll get to full self-driving next year. As a generalized solution, I think. But that’s a ... like, we’re on track to do that next year. So I don’t know. I don’t think anyone else is on tract to do it next year.

      Of course being optimistic isn’t a crime, but intentionally misleading bond investors is. There’s plenty of other examples of musk lies, like model 3 ramp up rate, securities fraud which he is legally not allowed to deny (Occams razor anyone? Not for fan bois), and just recently in the last earnings call where he straight up lied about European regulatory approval to investors on an investor conference call. I was trying to stay on optic with the thread though.

      I realize that musk acolytes will apologize and make up rationalizations, and that’s fine. I honestly don’t care. But we’re talking about self driving and I wanted to mention the rampant fraud in the company that’s allegedly was going to get it next year.
      Feb 8
  • Microsoft richardhea
    Not for another 50-100 years.
    🍆
    Feb 613
    • Google Elite10xer
      Literally thousands of people die in car accidents every year and no one has made legislation banning people from driving. A federal ban on self driving cars will never have enough support to become law.

      We haven’t visited mars because we’ve never properly funded a mars program, not because we don’t have the ability to do it. There’s plenty of funding for self driving cars.
      Feb 6
    • Google / EngMr Glass
      Problem with people dying when driving is that they're responsible for their death. People are far more comfortable having ownership over their lives despite being bad at protecting it, than they are with giving up control to another robot or entity no matter how much better they may be at safety. It's the classic utopian socialist vs free capitalist debate. People choose to be free (and poor) despite promises of Utopia (justice, wealth, safety) in socialism. The self driving car will be legislated and banned despite being safer for this reason.
      Feb 6
    • Airbnb Fentry
      Elite that’s completely sensible but laws don’t follow logic when it comes to protecting people. If a lawmaker can win votes by outlawing self driving cars in their state, it’s going to happen. And people are scared of computers driving cars. There is already a backlash in PHX.

      You can see similar problems with nuclear power today. Objectively it’s superior and safer than alternatives but that doesn’t matter.
      Feb 6
    • Salesforce
      marc2020!

      Salesforce

      PRE
      Amazon, Microsoft
      BIO
      Geek
      marc2020!more
      In a litigious society like America, it will be really hard. It will take a long time to mature this technology. Imagine the combinatorial mess. Two self driving cars crash, one self driving crashes into a human driven car, a human driven car crashes into a self driving car, and so on. Whether conditions, mechanical fitness of the car (not enough friction in the tires or wiper in bad shape). It will be a paradise for lawyers and nightmare for ordinary people.
      Feb 6
    • ADP / Mgmt
      Runner131

      ADPMgmt

      BIO
      I call myself "Damage Control" as I turnaround poor performance of others and get results.
      Runner131more
      Considering companies have announced 2023 as the year fully autonomous cars are company and are shoveling a money bonfire to build it, I think you're off a factor of 5 at least.
      Feb 6
    • Airbnb Fentry
      2023 in Phoenix during good weather and on roads that are per-mapped, maybe. Not in rain, snow, on wet roads, on unmapped roads, in fog, in areas with heavy pedestrian or bicycle presence, etc...
      Feb 6
    • ADP / Mgmt
      Runner131

      ADPMgmt

      BIO
      I call myself "Damage Control" as I turnaround poor performance of others and get results.
      Runner131more
      With asterisks yes, probably will be wealthiest cities first. The Bay, NYC, maybe some of the tekkie TX cities would be my guesses for first rollouts.

      NY would give them the volume of data in adverse weather.
      Feb 6
    • Airbnb Fentry
      No way that NYC will tolerate self driving car tests. Anyway there are fundamental problems with LIDAR in weather.
      Feb 6
    • ADP / Mgmt
      Runner131

      ADPMgmt

      BIO
      I call myself "Damage Control" as I turnaround poor performance of others and get results.
      Runner131more
      That's why some companies use layered tech- LIDAR, stereoscopic cameras, GPS, ultrasonic sensors, etc.
      Feb 6
    • Amazon Izzypop
      Right- and how much will all that cost? And there will still be problems for a while, with tech, litigation, ethics, etc. it like the self-driving enthusiasts refuse to acknowledge the road blocks.... pun intended...
      Feb 6
  • New b37
    As someone who can't drive (bad eyesight), I hope self driving cars come tomorrow.
    Feb 63
    • It’s not able arguing the need, but to discuss when we will get there if possible.
      Feb 6
    • LinkedIn / Datamcliquor
      As someone who is just too lazy to drive, I hope teleportation comes tomorrow.
      Feb 7
    • New b37
      As someone who didn't buy Bitcoin until 2017, I hope time travel comes tomorrow. Or any date; that can be worked around.
      Feb 8
  • Microsoft FBisEvil
    Don’t let this thread make you forget that Tesla will fraudulently take customer deposits for Full Self Driver tech, despite the fact that those cars will be scrapped before that tech comes online. Musk claims it’ll come out next yr though.

    Lol, what a subsidy-seeking truffle pig fraud boy Musk is.
    Feb 611
    • Capital One RE5PECT
      You must be picking shitty stocks then
      Feb 6
    • Microsoft undefined
      @RE5PECT that’s about the most ignorant comment you could make. Tesla’s stock performance is stellar and those that have performed better over the last 10, 5, 3, and 1 year are very rare.

      @FBisEvil That’s like saying Kickstarter is fraudulently taking deposits. People pre-paying for FSD know the deal, and your claim that their cars will be scrapped before it comes is baseless. It’s a near certainty that those drivers will get increased AutoPilot capabilities for their money. Will they reach a full Level 5, no person in driver seat needed, works in all conditions capability? Almost certainly not. But will they reach a Level 4 (“mind off”) capability for some routes and conditions? Seems likely. They’re pretty darn close to a good Level 3 today even without their new upgraded computer.
      Feb 6
    • I've made a shitload of 💰 shorting Tesla. Thanks to fraud boy musk and his fake B.S in Twitter. SEC should've put him in jail though.
      Feb 6
    • Flagged by the community.

    • Microsoft FBisEvil
      Musk has claimed you’ll be able to go cross country without user input, and that your car will make money for you as an autonomous Uber while you sleep. That FSD claim is level 5 and he claims it is just on the horizon for years now. Recently he said it’s coming in 2019 in a November recode interview.

      Try to rationalize it all you want but you sound uninformed of musks claims
      Feb 7
    • Microsoft FBisEvil
      FSD is a separate feature in Tesla’s than enhanced autopilot
      Feb 7
    • Amazon Buzzering
      OP is ignorant. I don't blame him/her as it really depends on which side of the thought process you are on. FSD is far from realization, but for the money they were charging ($3000 against $5000 for Autopilot, and $3000 for a $100,000 car), it's an investment and they'll keep your car upgraded. For eg, with quantum computing coming to Tesla cars in Q2 2019, the folks who bought FSD (is not sold anymore) are receiving free upgrade.

      Look, I honestly don't know when level 5 autonomous driving will come. But, the journey towards the goal is very exciting. And more importantly, it better start now.
      Feb 7
    • Microsoft undefined
      @FBisEvil Now you’re just lying. He’s said that’s the vision for ~10 years from now. That is not anything he has ever said would be coming this year or next.
      Feb 7
    • Microsoft undefined
      @Buzzering Quantum computing? lol what?
      Feb 7
    • Microsoft FBisEvil
      @undefined. I’m not lying here is a direct quote about full self-driving from the ReCode interview. You can google it.

      “You know, I think we’ll get to full self-driving next year. As a generalized solution, I think. But that’s a ... like, we’re on track to do that next year. So I don’t know. I don’t think anyone else is on tract to do it next year.”

      He’s done it countless times so quite trying to deny information available in the public space.

      The 2016 interview on The Verge promised full self driving the following year. It was a lie. He doubles down on that claim all the time, recently in November 2018 in The Recode interview.
      Feb 8
  • Apple Yror78
    Of course it does. The answer to these kinds of questions is the same every time. It’s not IF it has a future, it’s what kind of future it will have....how far are we from maturity? Today, certain problems in autonomous drive are hard. Tomorrow, we’ll have solved these and tackle the next hardest questions. The answer is always somewhere in the middle with most things.
    Feb 62
    • Apple / Engmegamex
      Aah, the only sensible answer!
      Feb 6
    • LinkedIn Pudingi
      Apple recently shutdown its self driving division. Any idea why?
      Feb 6
  • Google Elite10xer
    What does Microsoft know that they aren’t sharing? Every Microsoft person in this thread is extremely pessimistic lol
    Feb 64
    • Microsoft BarFoo
      They don’t know anything. Cars will be full self drive.
      Feb 6
    • Microsoft undefined
      Not all of us ;-)
      Feb 6
    • New OwjS77
      Microsoft isn’t invested in any self driving effort. Maybe that explains it to some extent.
      Feb 6
    • Microsoft pJcW86
      Surprising considering we have a ton of terribly shitty drivers at Microsoft and think their shitty Prius (now Tesla) can take up two spaces.
      Feb 6
  • Cisco 1029384756
    If you do the TCO math, you’ll realize a model 3 is cheaper to own than a Camry or accord over 5 years, and much cheaper than a comparable BMW.

    Also the drivetrain has unprecedented reliability - google pictures of motor and gear that were driven a MILLION miles and still looked new.

    There’s a lot of lack of education about Tesla (and EVs in general). If you actually drive one of these cars and can do basic TCO math, there’s no reason to consider any other car today.
    Feb 69
    • In 5 years you need a new battery. That’s 50% cost of the car. What are you taking about! Tesla is managing to fool everyone
      Feb 6
    • Sage / Sales
      khCi60

      SageSales

      BIO
      East coast
      khCi60more
      @berrytree u dumb or just not informed? 😉
      Feb 6
    • Cisco 1029384756
      Seriously - Teslas have been driven 300-500k miles with less than 10% battery degradation. Moreover battery cost is like 10k, less than a quarter of the cost of the car. So much FUD out there on electric cars.
      Feb 6
    • VMware zxzam
      I hope that as battery tech matures, they can make the Model S lose weight. Considering how sparse it is, it is an extremely heavy vehicle.
      Feb 6
    • Cisco 1029384756
      Zxzam - I think they will just add more cells and add more range to the S, instead of decreasing weight. The 3 actually has more interior room than the S and is a thousand lbs lighter. Much better driving too if you are an enthusiast.
      Feb 6
    • Sage / Sales
      khCi60

      SageSales

      BIO
      East coast
      khCi60more
      @vmware - the model 3 is 1000 lbs lighter than the s....
      Feb 6
    • VMware zxzam
      Oh, I need to test drive the Model 3 then. Less weight on a car is so desirable and improves many aspects - braking, suspension wear, handling, cornering, body roll, power/weight ratio, etc.
      Feb 6
    • Facebook 🚗meep
      Lol. Body roll? Teslas are nearly unrollable *because* of their weight and in particular how low it is.
      Feb 7
    • Cisco 1029384756
      @xzzam - Body roll is lower on the 3, even lower on the Performance model 3. @meep - by body roll he is referring to how much the car leans while takin high speed turns. It’s a measure of handling, and not the same as rollover which you might be thinking.
      Feb 7
  • Microsoft HUyN72
    Only Tesla has hope
    Feb 65
    • Tesla > Toyota
      Thx
      Feb 6
    • Toyota / Eng
      rHWt46

      ToyotaEng

      BIO
      Michigan R&D
      rHWt46more
      Lol I like your name
      Feb 6
    • Uber zerxifk
      You two get a room
      Feb 6
    • Microsoft HUyN72
      So they have Panasonic
      Feb 6
    • Lol
      Feb 16
  • Airbnb BnglMyJngl
    https://comma.ai - self-driving cars won’t require well marked roads and will be able to drive on roads even covered in snow eventually as maps are built out and paired with highly accurate GPS then cars localize as they drive and use camera/radar/GPS/other sensors. Self-driving cars will happen, sooner than most of the above are guessing.
    Feb 68
    • Cisco whgshey
      I am waiting
      Feb 6
    • Microsoft richardhea
      😂
      🍆
      Feb 6
    • Cisco whgshey
      Btw do you even know this is The works. Since 1980s and probably being dreamt off since 1920. I think I will pay for your switch from Airbnb to comma.ai may be since 40 years it’s your enthusiasm that is is missing
      Feb 6
    • Google Elite10xer
      @whgshey I have no idea what that means
      Feb 6
    • Cisco whgshey
      Lol are you from Waymo. How’s testing. Coming along
      Feb 6
    • Microsoft undefined
      Go home Cisco, you’re drunk.
      Feb 6
    • Google Elite10xer
      @whgshey I’m not from waymo
      Feb 6
    • Amazon
      kAmOUFlaGe

      Amazon

      PRE
      Amazon
      kAmOUFlaGemore
      Comma.ai is a joke, they’re selling dash cam now
      Feb 10
  • Cisco whgshey
    IMO it’s a useless endeavor, never ever will see full potential on roads. But ... people working on it will be super stars tomorrow. Bits and pieces of their work will unlock many solutions in a few decades
    Feb 63
    • Microsoft undefined
      That is frankly an absurd answer which can only come from ignorance of the problem space and the technology.
      Feb 6
    • Amazon / ProductHsjsuehdur
      Whgshey, you’re an idiot.
      Feb 8
    • Cruise Automation Derpi
      Lolled
      Feb 8
  • eBay flyingnow
    All the technology are aiming at eliminating bottom workers. When will technology be invented to eliminate CEOs and VPs
    Feb 61
    • Microsoft / Product
      Brazuka

      MicrosoftProduct

      PRE
      Bain & Company
      Brazukamore
      Ebay is a socialist that doesnt understand first thing about business
      Feb 7
  • Sage / Sales
    khCi60

    SageSales

    BIO
    East coast
    khCi60more
    My car drove me 85% of the way home. ..
    Feb 64
    • Comcast / Mgmt
      aethernet

      ComcastMgmt

      BIO
      Various media and tech companies
      aethernetmore
      Ignore reality and trust your prejudices, like all the naysayers on this thread
      Feb 6
    • Qualcomm vasG72
      What car? How long a ride? And which city?
      Feb 6
    • Local Motors RedParrot
      It's the final 15% that's going to take 95% of the effort
      Feb 6
    • Sage / Sales
      khCi60

      SageSales

      BIO
      East coast
      khCi60more
      Tesla model 3 - in a big city
      Feb 6
  • New pumbaa
    YES but will take a while
    Feb 60
  • This comment was deleted by original commenter.

    • Amazon / QAhiiS13
      You mean like killing a person? That's happening now.
      Feb 6
    • Uber zerxifk
      Tesla killed a driver. It made the top story.
      Feb 6
  • Cisco 1029384756
    If you have driven a recent Tesla (HW2.5) and used Navigate on Autopilot, you’d know they are fairly autonomous already. If you drive from say Los Gatos to San Francisco, the Tesla EAP will get you nearly there with no intervention needed except for lane change confirmations (highway portion). And the need for those confirmations will go away in the next 1-2 months.

    So highway full self driving is all but here ALREADY. Off highway is a bit tirickier and will likely take 3-5 years at most.

    Again if you have doubts, rent an EAP equipped model 3 from Turo for a few days and experience for yourself.
    Feb 60
  • ADP / Mgmt
    Runner131

    ADPMgmt

    BIO
    I call myself "Damage Control" as I turnaround poor performance of others and get results.
    Runner131more
    Having recruited ADAS engineers, yes this tech is here to stay. It will do as other technologies have done in the past, start as a premium option until costs come down and you can get it on a junk Kia.

    We are in generation 0.5 more or less currently. It's a proof of concept that people are paying for to allow the companies to gather data.

    Next will be refining algorithms and decision trees, refining it to mirror your own driving style instead of turning into "Sunday driver" mode.

    The reason it will stay is that city planning will change. This will allow future cars to be parked further away from downtowns and city centers. Parking decks / lots take up a lot of space currently that could be turned into more profitable businesses or more green spaces could be made in downtowns if your car could drive up to you from a remote deck.

    Additionally, you have people who are not car enthusiasts. The see cars as dishwashers, just a machine to get from A to B. They don't find pleasure in driving and will enjoy the time consuming content instead of driving. This will bring another revenue stream / partnerships within automotive once this technology has matured (like ABS and airbags before it).

    The reason it has to be so complex is because of "shared roads." You have dumb cars with spark plugs and little else electronic sharing the road with the latest greatest. So the car has to see and "think" what to do in its surroundings. Due to lawsuits being as prevalent as they are in America, that's why you have such conservative autonomous cars today, companies don't want litigation IF a car does XYZ.

    And that's my nickel tour TED talk on autonomous vehicles.
    Feb 60
  • Local Motors RedParrot
    Here is a perspective from someone in the industry: What we are forecasting is a 20 year transition to mass adoption and full penetration in mobility on demand fleets. Tesla and other legacy automakers will continue to rollout fancy partially automated cruise control systems, and these will become increasingly sophisticated. However the real first autonomous vehicles (aka - no "safety driver") will not be passenger cars. They will be low speed shuttles, cargo robots, etc. operating in geofenced districts or campuses. In the medium term expect waymo, zoox, cruise & others to roll out automated taxis and microtransit into select parts of cities come early 2020s. IMO: the real limitation is not the technology but rather transport planning and policy. Until those are sorted expect niche pockets of autonomy rolling out like a 19th century electrical grid in locations with the right traits, and localized and tailored to the specifics of their region. It's not like you flip a switch; the global car parc has a 12 year lifecycle.
    Feb 68
    • Sage / Sales
      khCi60

      SageSales

      BIO
      East coast
      khCi60more
      You sound like someone who is intellectually smart but perhaps has not actually been in a Tesla with autopilot in the last couple months - am I correct? Nonsense to call it automated cruise control. Can other cars parallel park themselves? Or do lane changes?
      Feb 6
    • Local Motors RedParrot
      Have you ever driven in a fully autonomous vehicle? Can a Tesla drive itself on the highway or busy downtown streets without human supervision? I am not bashing their capability but simply pointing out the obvious. Tesla does not make autonomous vehicles. It makes great cars with useful safety features, but these features don't replace human driver and as implemented never will. Full autonomy is a very different problem to solve, and unlikely to happen on a consumer budget at least for quite some time. The sensing suite and compute in a full AV are on a wholly different level in terms of cost and capability. PS: I own a Tesla 😉
      Feb 7
    • Sage / Sales
      khCi60

      SageSales

      BIO
      East coast
      khCi60more
      This confusion always gets confused and overly complicated. If by autonomous u mean a car that can handle every single situation by itself we are definitely far from that. But for the most common use cases - parking, stop and go freeway traffic, etc the new tesla update is level 3 autonomous
      Feb 7
    • Cisco 1029384756
      Red parrot - with Hw2.5 and NoA , the 3 can drive itself on the highway - see my post above. The S/X with older hardware may not be there yet though. It’s not perfect but getting better everyday. Human supervision is required by law and advisable but the system performs so well, I wouldn’t be surprised we get full high way autonomy within the year.

      Off highway is a bit further out though.
      Feb 7
    • Sage / Sales
      khCi60

      SageSales

      BIO
      East coast
      khCi60more
      Old hardware is totally different system and can’t be upgraded. I’m using mine on major city streets since last update
      Feb 7
    • Sage / Sales
      khCi60

      SageSales

      BIO
      East coast
      khCi60more
      Feb 7
    • Sage / Sales
      khCi60

      SageSales

      BIO
      East coast
      khCi60more
      Tesla cars connected to the cloud are driving tens of millions of miles per week....
      Feb 7
    • I think it’s a stretch to call Tesla level 3
      Feb 16
  • Synopsys DFmx82
    Most people just talk about AI-aspect of it, but the underlying hardware is hard real-time system. Everyone tends to assume whatever software wants to do can be done by the physical system and the real problem is to figure out how to drive by AI. It is, however, actually not so easy to reliably control a fast-moving physcial system with hard real-time constraints by software. It would appear it works and follows whatever order it was given until one day some unpected case happens and the car crashes. Even if there's an algorithm that can make decisions to drive completely safely, the correct/perfect actuation of the car itself needs to be guaranteed and verified, which was never done really.
    Feb 64
    • Microsoft undefined
      You think a human driver (without ample track experience) connected via a steering wheel and pedals is better at this than software?

      Do you know what traction control is?
      Feb 6
    • Synopsys DFmx82
      im talking about a situation when traction control software detects the situation and wants to do something, but the unpredictable timing behavior of computer systems (this needs a phd to understand, though) delays the engagement and misses the critical time for action. how predictable do you think computers are, in terms of timing? indeed very slight chances of happening, but never there was a guarantee of preventing such misbehavior, and it is fundamentally unsolvable problem. (halting problem)
      Feb 6
    • Microsoft jjpf13
      Stupid humans know not to speed up toward a barrier. It’s a feature called self-preservation and was given to us by nature’s ML over 3,5 Billion years.
      Feb 6
    • Microsoft undefined
      @DFmx82 Contrived problem oversimplified (real-time systems are a thing, and there countless examples of systems that have much tighter timing constraints that this), but more importantly, what makes that necessary to drive as well as or better than a human?
      Feb 7
  • Wayfair sqlg81
    Tesla is already ahead
    Feb 63
    • Cisco whgshey
      Yeah sure look at the company’s books ... looks way ahead
      Feb 6
    • Microsoft undefined
      I think Cisco person hasn’t been following very closely. The FUD about Tesla’s books has been debunked. They reported $3.69B cash and equivalents last week for the last quarter of CY19, far more than enough to cover their $920 million debt due this year.
      Feb 6
    • Zoox coralreef
      Lol
      Feb 16
  • Pinterest Pintura
    From reading and listening to podcasts about this field, it is my understanding that none of the engineers, CEOs and VCs are expecting to make cars fully autonomous before launching to the market. Cars will have a human sitting to take over as well as have a remote operator, and also would most likely operate in a geo fenced area. There will be companies that would build the software, and then there would be car companies (like BMW) who would build cars that utilize these technologies. Something that will most likely happen in the next 5 years would be for instance BMW builds a car, Uber/Lyft provide self driven cab service using such a fleet of cars. Of course, like I said, to begin with they will be remotely operated and will have a backup driver. This is my understanding about their vision from listening to podcasts in this area. People who are working in this field are very optimistic because even before Uber became so popular, people were apprehensive about sitting in a stranger's car, and then it became so popular in a few years. I personally think autonomous cars have a future.
    Feb 63
    • DTE Energy / EngnhFO18
      Latency would be a huge problem on the road .
      Remote piloting of military drones only works because they are not going to run into anything anytime soon . The Cars AI has to be able to handle every problem . I think the biggest problem self driving cars are going to have is unpredictable people driving there own cars next to them .
      I drive in Detroit for 2 hours each day . And I spend a lot of time observing how driving works . One of the skills we develop over time is reading other cars/drivers “body language” to predict what they are going to do or are likely to do before they do it . Young drivers do not do this . They only looks for signals and break lights and then react. But experienced drivers and tell by the turn of a head or the slight movement of an car what they are thinking . I have teenagers, so I definitely noticed this while teaching them how to survive on the road.
      Feb 6
    • Pinterest Pintura
      Yeah, I am not going to speculate on the details and edge cases. May be you are right. But I think they are most likely working on such problems. I am also not going to compare with military drones because I think sometimes silicon valley can be way ahead of the government. Facebook's face recognition vs FBI's for instance. I think a whole different talent pool is at work in Silicon Valley than in military. May be I am wrong. Also disagree that car's AI has to be able to handle every problem before autonomous cars can be launched. That's the whole point of backup driver and remote operator. Again, I don't have all the details so I am not going to speculate, but I think I am very hopeful and I think some of the best minds are at work on these problems.
      Feb 6
    • Tesla fallen
      Computers can pick on “body language” better than humans, and even profile/segregate based on the car type/color/make/model/plates as well the looks of the person driving...
      Feb 12
  • Cruise Automation gotsjokes
    Define self driving.
    Level 4? Where a car doesn't need a human in it ever, but can only do so within a heavily geomapped area like certain cities? We're only a couple years away from MULTIPLE companies getting that.
    Cost parity of that with Uber/Lyft? Eh, more like five years probably, but by that point they'll drive better than most humans anyway

    Level 5 is what you're probably thinking of, completely autonomous absolutely anywhere on planet Earth. That's at least a decade away but also not that needed. Level 4 will enact massive societal change, level 5 will be a neat party trick by comparison.

    You aren't going to recognize transportation in 2030
    Feb 70
  • OpenTable Meliodas
    Trains don’t even have the tech yet and all they do is go in a straight line.
    Feb 62
    • Comcast / Mgmt
      aethernet

      ComcastMgmt

      BIO
      Various media and tech companies
      aethernetmore
      Been to an airport lately?
      Feb 6
    • Local Motors RedParrot
      Most of the automated rail systems are located in Europe and Asia, and are by far he largest throughput automated transport system in operation. Tens of millions of passengers per day transported safely.
      Feb 6
  • 1-800 Contacts HQOR61
    There’s such a huge incentive to perfect the technology, that people will keep chipping away at it until it works. Not having to pay truck drivers will save billions and billions of dollars. It will be bigger than Amazon.
    Feb 61
    • Primer AI / Eng
      gEMD88

      Primer AIEng

      BIO
      Two time CTO with experience bringing SaaS to market. Can provide career advice.
      gEMD88more
      Correction: Amazon will own it and it will be part of Amazon.
      Feb 9
  • Sprinklr / DesignLawnmower
    I’m reading this while driving so I hope it has a future
    Feb 80
  • Cerner / DataKil*p*
    I love to drive, I like manual transmission
    Feb 60
  • Comcast / Mgmt
    aethernet

    ComcastMgmt

    BIO
    Various media and tech companies
    aethernetmore
    The first autonomous vehicles will succeed in situations where the built environment develops to meet them in the middle.

    We assume that the vehicles will have to be brilliant while the streets remain dumb. Instead, there are plenty of situations where adding a modicum of smarts to the environment will make it much easier to hand control over to the system.

    We have carpool lanes now- autodrive lanes with embedded sensors and transponders, fixed cameras with machine vision etc are a possibility and will let you take a nap in your otherwise level 3 or 4 car.

    Municipalities will be incentivized to fund this infrastructure as it will be many times cheaper than all new roads or mass transit.
    Feb 65
    • Apple 88812122
      And common man will be extra taxed to sleep in car while u commute
      Feb 6
    • Google Elite10xer
      Taxed extra to not die behind the wheel
      Feb 6
    • Comcast / Mgmt
      aethernet

      ComcastMgmt

      BIO
      Various media and tech companies
      aethernetmore
      88812122 that beats the “tax” you pay for your car sitting in your garage or driveway 90% of the time you own it
      Feb 6
    • Microsoft jjpf13
      Meanwhile... I need to change shock-absorbers and various bushings every 3 years or so, because of all the potholes... But yeah smart roads! Why didn’t I think of that?
      Feb 6
    • Comcast / Mgmt
      aethernet

      ComcastMgmt

      BIO
      Various media and tech companies
      aethernetmore
      Why own a car long enough to have to replace the shocks?
      Feb 6
  • Amazon guhfghh
    People are lazy, so yes
    Feb 62
    • New / MktgXeKT40
      What about people with disabilities? Autonomous vehicles could be the wheelchairs of the future. Mobility is so important.

      I’ll drive my sports cars for as long as possible. I hope technology can help get me around if I’m not able to do it myself.
      Feb 6
    • New b37
      ++; we visually impaired have a tough time living in a world designed exclusively for automobile drivers.
      Feb 7
  • Virgin Hyperloop One JVew62
    I’m going to go one-step above this; transportation is an issue. I live in LA. Getting from point A to B can be a hassle. This is true for most people in densely populated areas. Self-driving cars are a step towards having efficient traffic. Humans make errors and poor judgement calls when driving. These choices can lead to bottlenecks, accidents, etc. Self-driving cars address this. Picture the ideal situation with roads that have only autonomous vehicles—traffic could be fully managed and optimized. The challenge is working in the grey area before that...with humans in the loop. This is where we are now and will be for a while. Autonomous cars offer a solution to a problem that is going nowhere. Transportation is an issue. Whether it’s addressed with self-driving cars, scooters, flying taxis, hyperloops, high-speed rails, other infrastructure, or whatever, the problem needs solving.
    Feb 61
    • Microsoft jjpf13
      Tokyo is a densely populated area, I got almost anywhere I needed to go within 20min. Yet I have to leave for LAX 3 hours prior.

      American cities are an issue.
      They can be fixed with better zoning, not flying scooters
      Feb 6
  • Cruise Automation
    Ljgeun7

    Cruise Automation

    PRE
    Cruise Automation
    Ljgeun7more
    Take human drivers off the road to speed things up 😘
    Feb 60
  • Nokia / ITPizdets
    As much ad I would love to be driven around by a piece of code, I would probably be scared shitless on the highway. Hard to give up control.
    Feb 116
    • Google / MgmtLovedoo
      Piece of code flies your plane across continents. Pilots are just there to intervene in case something goes wrong. We are being trained to go completely operator less (checkout free shopping (Amazon go), elevators (added Muzak and a panic button), people free food (eatsa)
      Feb 11
    • Nokia / ITPizdets
      Yes, but I am not sitting there right next to the flight controls. One thing is being a passenger, another is sitting behind a steering wheel while the car drives itself at 70mph while assholes cut you off on the freeway.
      Feb 11
    • Cruise Automation gotsjokes
      Weird as it sounds, highway driving is actually way easier to automate than busy city streets. It's easier to calculate kinematic interactions since everything has crazy inertia.
      Also an av will hit the brakes way harder than you will, humans tend to be really cautious with the brake pedal and only hard brake when they realize oh shit I'm not braking hard enough. An av will be like "that swerving car is X far ahead, so I need to brake exactly Y hard not to hit it"
      Feb 11
    • Our vehicles can drive autonomously from Menlo Park to Foster City on and off the freeway, then autonomously through the busiest city streets in San Francisco, 100% autonomously. And it’s comfortable. We don’t brake check other drivers or go too slow ;-)
      Feb 16
    • Cruise Automation gotsjokes
      If you're not driving cautiously, at this point in development, you're not prioritizing safety, and that isn't going to end well
      Feb 16
    • Zoox coralreef
      Right, because brake checking people and going 10mph in 30mph traffic is the pinnacle of safety...
      Feb 16
  • Google / MgmtLovedoo
    Think about how many different car brands are around. There will be consolidation as a google and auto companies gobble smaller tech companies. The risk is if the experience gets commoditized. Also different types of vehicles such as trucks, mini bus, buses and other mass transit options will create additional options.
    Feb 63
    • Sage / Sales
      khCi60

      SageSales

      BIO
      East coast
      khCi60more
      Sorry bud not betting on google for this. Time will tell...
      Feb 6
    • Google / MgmtLovedoo
      Sure. Google May very well fade-away but as long as consumers have enough options, and as long as 9 billion people need to be mobile, this is an industry of the future. Unless we skip flying automated cars to teleportation
      Feb 7
    • Sage / Sales
      khCi60

      SageSales

      BIO
      East coast
      khCi60more
      There will not be flying cars that’s not viable for so many reasons. Google may be involved in self driving cars don’t doubt that but don’t think they can dominate the consumer space. Tesla still has a massive edge and it’s great all the people betting against them. I think musks vision for autonomy and also underground tunnels will prevail
      Feb 7
  • Microsoft huiii
    I don‘t trust and even believe in self driving cars! This is one of the things the world really doesn’t need. If you want a driver take a cab or bus. It‘s that simple
    Feb 82
    • Comcast / Mgmt
      aethernet

      ComcastMgmt

      BIO
      Various media and tech companies
      aethernetmore
      Bah humbug! Who needs Office 365 when you have a notebook and a sharp pencil?!?
      Feb 8
    • Microsoft huiii
      You got it! I see you‘re sharp minded lol
      Feb 8
  • Salesforce hfgnntunv
    Until there is AI (real one not marketing gimmicks) or all human drivers removed from the roads, self-driving will remain a novelty
    Feb 62
    • Qualcomm vasG72
      Agree here.. until there is a use case where autonomous driving excels, I don't see it being adopted by general public usage..
      Feb 6
    • Apple / EngSarcasmist
      That’s what my parents were saying about mobile phones... heck, I probably said it myself.
      Feb 11
  • Google nooglr101
    L4 should be ready by 2025, at lest in limited scope (city, time, weather etc). L5 - no one knows.

    Question is which stock to own when L4 go main stream in a decade?
    Feb 61
  • Indeed / Other
    TC1Billi

    IndeedOther

    PRE
    Lyft
    TC1Billimore
    Seems as though the finest brains working on this non this just can’t figure out edge cases. The edge cases are how people die. So who knows. It seems as though generally 95 % maybe has been figured out maybe even higher but the edge cases are what make it nearly impossible to get to the level of “full self driving”. AI/ML these day seems to be more feeding massive data sets to algorithms to decide best decision but humans inherently enter their biases in these datasets. Do we really have true intelligence? Who knows I wish I understood more about the field tbh.
    Feb 61
    • Microsoft pJcW86
      What are the edge cases? The self driving car should always follow the rules of the road. It shouldn't have to decide if a bus full of Rhodes scholar teens or itself needs to be saved, just follow the rules of the road and crash avoidance rules and the bus driver can fend for themselves.
      Feb 6
  • Amazon dmx2001
    Find a new gig if you’re a taxi driver.
    Feb 61
  • Google good sport
    Self-driving cars have a sunny future!

    Because they don’t work in the rain.
    Feb 130
  • Amazon / Engn0v
    It has a future, but the technology will need years to mature. The predictions of the death of the personal car are premature and exaggerated.
    Feb 60
  • Apple / EngSarcasmist
    I think it’s wrong to say commercial applications are limited. We are talking about robots and AI. There are other applications.
    Feb 60
  • Nvidia Biqk71
    I think of achieving full autonomy for self driving vehicles as another landing on the moon project. You will need a county willing to build the required infrastructure and a partnership with industry. May be the US will lag behind other countries that are more determined to achieve this.
    Feb 61
    • Facebook 🚗meep
      Connected infrastructure.

      Why should your car have to figure out if the traffic light is red or green when they could be broadcasting it over radio for the car.

      Serious security/safety aspects to this, obviously. Which ties back to policy.
      Feb 7
  • Chase SamanthaS
    NO. Then what is the point of humans be alive. Self driving cars again need fossil fuels unless they are battery charged. It will take it's own time may be close to 50 years to evolve . But self driving cars like in movies I will prefer a car that I drive and uses electric. And does not make me lazy. Humans are already lazy life expectancy is reducing. So be with it. Eat sleep sit in self driving car . What a life. 🤷🏻‍♂️
    Feb 61
  • Walmart.com s2a7
    I have driven in India for over 4 years and strongly believe it's nearly impossible to deploy this tech on Indian roads and by-lanes. It would be much easier to have autonomous flying taxis though, subject to regulatory approvals.
    Feb 90
  • New http:
    No
    Feb 80
  • Uber / Engjvuv4
    It doesn't have to be full L5 in order for the tech to be useful. People are happily driving L2 Tesla today.
    Feb 70
  • Broadcom Ltd. Bcm5
    https://pca.st/jiO9
    This is a very informative podcast about self driving cars. I am personally very excited about this tech
    Feb 70
  • Optum / ITzkzkzkzk
    It will require an infrastructure change also. Just like some airplanes can self land on certain runways with ILS categories. Certain road will be AP certified for full self driving where humans shouldn’t be found walking for example. Eventually getting more and more roads certified until the system is fully vetted.
    That’s my contention.
    Feb 70

Join verified employees in our anonymous social network!Download the app!

close