Does self driving really have a future?

Google / Eng totoro36
Feb 6 238 Comments

There are so many companies working on self driving technology now. All the tech used here looks really fancy and interesting. But I am worried that if one day people find out that commercial application of such technology is limited by the nature of driving itself, all hot money will leave this area(Given interestes rate is rising there will be less hot money in the future ). What's your opinion on this?

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TOP 238 Comments
  • Intuit osnu9&
    🍿
    Feb 6 12
    • Amazon Izzypop
      Feb 6
    • Apple / Eng BangOver
      And?
      Feb 6
    • Nvidia coolpm
      This is definitely an interesting topic and would be enlightening to an extent but commenting 🍿is poor taste.
      Feb 6
    • Apple / Eng BangOver
      That doesn’t answer my question: why the likes?
      Feb 6
    • Tesla fallen
      To directly answer your question: the reason why the “🍿” comment has 80 likes as of 20:31 2/12/19, is because 80 different users on Blind clicked or tapped on the “👍🏻” icon/button below the comment in question.... now 81 with mine
      Feb 12
  • Intel / Eng
    D.J.Trump

    Intel Eng

    PRE
    Microsoft
    D.J.Trumpmore
    This tech still got long way to go. I would not bet a computer to drive my car. All those radar and tech in the car will also cost a lot of money for the average joe to afford.
    Feb 6 21
    • Microsoft BOVi42
      @picasso7 https://youtu.be/Bx08yRsR9ow self driving car on Moscow streets after heavy snowfall
      Feb 6
    • Booking.com B.bla
      @arched you are thinking of todays prices, Uber/taxi are expensive because you pay for a driver. Driverless cars can be theoretically shared 5 days a week at cheaper than owning a car.
      Feb 6
    • New / Eng jo2305
      @pJcW86 Drunk or not, I wouldn't want those shitty and predictable computers to drive over anybody! ;)
      Feb 7
    • Microsoft Arched
      @B.bla That goes back to some other's points about infrastructure... Today's car-to-go services where you aren't paying for a driver are still more expensive than owning a car and there's very little density of these cars in suburban areas to make it a realistic option for your average joe. So yeah, theoretically, if you want to push for taxing the crap out of everyone to pay and have enough of these cars on the road to make it a realistic option then maybe it could be cheaper, but most people are likely to own a self driving car by the time that happens in my opinion.
      Feb 7
    • LinkedIn engdir
      A company like Waymo or Uber could buy *your* car from you, retrofit it, and charge you per mile to drive you to work every day. Other than the cost of the sensors (which is already coming down quickly), it could be cost-neutral to operate a self-driving taxi service without any car sharing. So it's already at least neutral with current car ownership costs.

      Plus:
      * You could share them, even in very remote areas, occasionally at least
      * They can do things like drop you off (valet parking) and get gas/charge on their own, saving you time
      * You can do other stuff while it drives, like watch a movie or have a video call, adding value
      * Shared cars can be much smaller (1-2 seater, not 4-5) because 90% or more of rides fit. You can order XL for the rare family trips.
      * Smaller cars means cheaper gas/electricity, less road congestion, etc. Ends up being cheaper for that reason alone.
      * Self-driven cars are, or at least will be, safer, meaning much cheaper insurance and repair costs.

      So self-driving taxis are necessarily cheaper, in the long run, even for very rural areas.
      Feb 7
  • Facebook Whatevenat
    You tell us waymo
    Feb 6 0
  • Amazon md jesus
    It is the future. In trucking, running shuttles, buses and cabs. I still believe personal self driving car is still at a distant future. The issue is not the technology, it's rather the regulation and safety requirements.
    Feb 6 8
    • New / Eng lzf66
      The tech isn't the issue, it's the infrastructure.
      Feb 6
    • Amazon Izzypop
      Infrastructure is also part of tech- and yeah, we actually joke about saying get off my lawn too... Sue me.
      Feb 6
    • New / R&D zorkan
      The tech has been around for years. Self driving is not a particularly hard problem. There's a lot of startups in the space because most ML grad students can get a prototype working for their local area in just a few months.

      The real challenge is productionizing and testing the cars at a global scale. Making it work in all regions and all possible scenarios is a big ask, and it will take time to get there in a safe manner. It's compounded by the fact that debugging ML systems is not a deterministic process -you can't just look at a stack trace and figure out what's going on when the car crashes.
      Feb 6
    • New / Eng jo2305
      @zorkan it's actually a fairly common grad ML class project. I think with advances in ML and AI we will successfully teach a computer to (safely) drive a car within a decade.
      Feb 7
    • Splunk KE94107
      We all fly on self-flying planes, using 1980s technologies. Often it’s the pilots who are scarier than the computers.
      Feb 7
  • Microsoft jjpf13
    It’s all going great until you realize cars can’t drive in 1” of snow, ice, unpaved roads, streets which are not clearly marked, and currently can’t make many left-turns. All we need are perfectly paved and marked roads and an endless summer.
    Feb 6 14
    • Microsoft undefined
      @jjpf13 BS. Self-driving has 5 internationally defined “levels”, the highest one is steering wheel *optional*. No one is expecting a current Model 3 to reach Level 5 let alone in all situations. Certainly no one is going to remove their steering wheel.

      “Overpriced death-traps”.
      Okay, you’re clearly not a serious person.

      @FBisEvil Intent to mislead? Do you have any idea how AutoPilot on airplanes works? No, it’s not a misnomer or any intent to mislead. It’s branding. Do you think any of the competitive systems (like Traffic Jam Pilot, etc) are intending to mislead as well? Why?

      What claims of FSD are you talking about?
      Feb 7
    • Microsoft FBisEvil
      Do a google search. Do I have to give you search terms bc he says that garbage all the time. If you google Musk Recode interview and find the second occurrence of ‘full self’ you’ll see him claim it’s coming next year. Utter BS
      Feb 7
    • Microsoft undefined
      Musk is overly optimistic and aggressive in his roadmap projections, that’s nothing new. That isn’t “fraud”. He should hedge his statements more maybe, but he does drive results.

      Most of his statements, like the Recode one I believe, are actually “when will FSD buyers start getting something differentiated from EAP”. That’s very different from when FSD is “done”. It will come incrementally, and improve over time just as EAP and NavOnAP have.

      Your attempts to spread FUD must be motivated by something, what might that be?
      Feb 7
    • Google SundarCEO
      Microsoft dude, slow down with your acronyms
      Feb 8
    • Microsoft FBisEvil
      FSD = Full Self Driving

      Since undefined didn’t mention Musks actual quote and instead made up an excuse like a fan boi, I’ll provide a direct quote.

      “You know, I think we’ll get to full self-driving next year. As a generalized solution, I think. But that’s a ... like, we’re on track to do that next year. So I don’t know. I don’t think anyone else is on tract to do it next year.

      Of course being optimistic isn’t a crime, but intentionally misleading bond investors is. There’s plenty of other examples of musk lies, like model 3 ramp up rate, securities fraud which he is legally not allowed to deny (Occams razor anyone? Not for fan bois), and just recently in the last earnings call where he straight up lied about European regulatory approval to investors on an investor conference call. I was trying to stay on optic with the thread though.

      I realize that musk acolytes will apologize and make up rationalizations, and that’s fine. I honestly don’t care. But we’re talking about self driving and I wanted to mention the rampant fraud in the company that’s allegedly was going to get it next year.
      Feb 8
  • Microsoft richardhea
    Not for another 50-100 years.
    🍆
    Feb 6 13
    • Airbnb Fentry
      2023 in Phoenix during good weather and on roads that are per-mapped, maybe. Not in rain, snow, on wet roads, on unmapped roads, in fog, in areas with heavy pedestrian or bicycle presence, etc...
      Feb 6
    • ADP / Mgmt
      Runner131

      ADP Mgmt

      BIO
      I call myself "Damage Control" as I turnaround poor performance of others and get results.
      Runner131more
      With asterisks yes, probably will be wealthiest cities first. The Bay, NYC, maybe some of the tekkie TX cities would be my guesses for first rollouts.

      NY would give them the volume of data in adverse weather.
      Feb 6
    • Airbnb Fentry
      No way that NYC will tolerate self driving car tests. Anyway there are fundamental problems with LIDAR in weather.
      Feb 6
    • ADP / Mgmt
      Runner131

      ADP Mgmt

      BIO
      I call myself "Damage Control" as I turnaround poor performance of others and get results.
      Runner131more
      That's why some companies use layered tech- LIDAR, stereoscopic cameras, GPS, ultrasonic sensors, etc.
      Feb 6
    • Amazon Izzypop
      Right- and how much will all that cost? And there will still be problems for a while, with tech, litigation, ethics, etc. it like the self-driving enthusiasts refuse to acknowledge the road blocks.... pun intended...
      Feb 6
  • New b37
    As someone who can't drive (bad eyesight), I hope self driving cars come tomorrow.
    Feb 6 3
    • It’s not able arguing the need, but to discuss when we will get there if possible.
      Feb 6
    • LinkedIn / Data mcliquor
      As someone who is just too lazy to drive, I hope teleportation comes tomorrow.
      Feb 7
    • New b37
      As someone who didn't buy Bitcoin until 2017, I hope time travel comes tomorrow. Or any date; that can be worked around.
      Feb 8
  • Microsoft FBisEvil
    Don’t let this thread make you forget that Tesla will fraudulently take customer deposits for Full Self Driver tech, despite the fact that those cars will be scrapped before that tech comes online. Musk claims it’ll come out next yr though.

    Lol, what a subsidy-seeking truffle pig fraud boy Musk is.
    Feb 6 11
    • Microsoft FBisEvil
      FSD is a separate feature in Tesla’s than enhanced autopilot
      Feb 7
    • Amazon Buzzering
      OP is ignorant. I don't blame him/her as it really depends on which side of the thought process you are on. FSD is far from realization, but for the money they were charging ($3000 against $5000 for Autopilot, and $3000 for a $100,000 car), it's an investment and they'll keep your car upgraded. For eg, with quantum computing coming to Tesla cars in Q2 2019, the folks who bought FSD (is not sold anymore) are receiving free upgrade.

      Look, I honestly don't know when level 5 autonomous driving will come. But, the journey towards the goal is very exciting. And more importantly, it better start now.
      Feb 7
    • Microsoft undefined
      @FBisEvil Now you’re just lying. He’s said that’s the vision for ~10 years from now. That is not anything he has ever said would be coming this year or next.
      Feb 7
    • Microsoft undefined
      @Buzzering Quantum computing? lol what?
      Feb 7
    • Microsoft FBisEvil
      @undefined. I’m not lying here is a direct quote about full self-driving from the ReCode interview. You can google it.

      “You know, I think we’ll get to full self-driving next year. As a generalized solution, I think. But that’s a ... like, we’re on track to do that next year. So I don’t know. I don’t think anyone else is on tract to do it next year.”

      He’s done it countless times so quite trying to deny information available in the public space.

      The 2016 interview on The Verge promised full self driving the following year. It was a lie. He doubles down on that claim all the time, recently in November 2018 in The Recode interview.
      Feb 8
  • Apple Yror78
    Of course it does. The answer to these kinds of questions is the same every time. It’s not IF it has a future, it’s what kind of future it will have....how far are we from maturity? Today, certain problems in autonomous drive are hard. Tomorrow, we’ll have solved these and tackle the next hardest questions. The answer is always somewhere in the middle with most things.
    Feb 6 2
    • Apple / Eng megamex
      Aah, the only sensible answer!
      Feb 6
    • LinkedIn Pudingi
      Apple recently shutdown its self driving division. Any idea why?
      Feb 6
  • Cisco 1029384756
    If you do the TCO math, you’ll realize a model 3 is cheaper to own than a Camry or accord over 5 years, and much cheaper than a comparable BMW.

    Also the drivetrain has unprecedented reliability - google pictures of motor and gear that were driven a MILLION miles and still looked new.

    There’s a lot of lack of education about Tesla (and EVs in general). If you actually drive one of these cars and can do basic TCO math, there’s no reason to consider any other car today.
    Feb 6 9
    • Cisco 1029384756
      Zxzam - I think they will just add more cells and add more range to the S, instead of decreasing weight. The 3 actually has more interior room than the S and is a thousand lbs lighter. Much better driving too if you are an enthusiast.
      Feb 6
    • Sage / Sales
      khCi60

      Sage Sales

      BIO
      East coast
      khCi60more
      @vmware - the model 3 is 1000 lbs lighter than the s....
      Feb 6
    • VMware / Eng zxzam
      Oh, I need to test drive the Model 3 then. Less weight on a car is so desirable and improves many aspects - braking, suspension wear, handling, cornering, body roll, power/weight ratio, etc.
      Feb 6
    • Facebook 🚗meep
      Lol. Body roll? Teslas are nearly unrollable *because* of their weight and in particular how low it is.
      Feb 7
    • Cisco 1029384756
      @xzzam - Body roll is lower on the 3, even lower on the Performance model 3. @meep - by body roll he is referring to how much the car leans while takin high speed turns. It’s a measure of handling, and not the same as rollover which you might be thinking.
      Feb 7
  • Microsoft HUyN72
    Only Tesla has hope
    Feb 6 5
    • Tesla > Toyota
      Thx
      Feb 6
    • Toyota / Eng
      rHWt46

      Toyota Eng

      BIO
      Michigan R&D
      rHWt46more
      Lol I like your name
      Feb 6
    • Uber zerxifk
      You two get a room
      Feb 6
    • Microsoft HUyN72
      So they have Panasonic
      Feb 6
    • Lol
      Feb 16
  • Google Elite10xer
    What does Microsoft know that they aren’t sharing? Every Microsoft person in this thread is extremely pessimistic lol
    Feb 6 3
    • Microsoft undefined
      Not all of us ;-)
      Feb 6
    • New OwjS77
      Microsoft isn’t invested in any self driving effort. Maybe that explains it to some extent.
      Feb 6
    • Microsoft pJcW86
      Surprising considering we have a ton of terribly shitty drivers at Microsoft and think their shitty Prius (now Tesla) can take up two spaces.
      Feb 6
  • Airbnb BnglMyJngl
    https://comma.ai - self-driving cars won’t require well marked roads and will be able to drive on roads even covered in snow eventually as maps are built out and paired with highly accurate GPS then cars localize as they drive and use camera/radar/GPS/other sensors. Self-driving cars will happen, sooner than most of the above are guessing.
    Feb 6 8
    • Google Elite10xer
      @whgshey I have no idea what that means
      Feb 6
    • Cisco whgshey
      Lol are you from Waymo. How’s testing. Coming along
      Feb 6
    • Microsoft undefined
      Go home Cisco, you’re drunk.
      Feb 6
    • Google Elite10xer
      @whgshey I’m not from waymo
      Feb 6
    • Amazon
      kAmOUFlaGe

      Amazon

      PRE
      Amazon
      kAmOUFlaGemore
      Comma.ai is a joke, they’re selling dash cam now
      Feb 10
  • Cisco whgshey
    IMO it’s a useless endeavor, never ever will see full potential on roads. But ... people working on it will be super stars tomorrow. Bits and pieces of their work will unlock many solutions in a few decades
    Feb 6 3
    • Microsoft undefined
      That is frankly an absurd answer which can only come from ignorance of the problem space and the technology.
      Feb 6
    • Amazon / Product Hsjsuehdur
      Whgshey, you’re an idiot.
      Feb 8
    • Cruise Automation Derpi
      Lolled
      Feb 8
  • eBay flyingnow
    All the technology are aiming at eliminating bottom workers. When will technology be invented to eliminate CEOs and VPs
    Feb 6 1
    • Microsoft / Product
      Brazuka

      Microsoft Product

      PRE
      Bain & Company
      Brazukamore
      Ebay is a socialist that doesnt understand first thing about business
      Feb 7
  • Sage / Sales
    khCi60

    Sage Sales

    BIO
    East coast
    khCi60more
    My car drove me 85% of the way home. ..
    Feb 6 4
    • Comcast / Mgmt
      aethernet

      Comcast Mgmt

      BIO
      Various media and tech companies
      aethernetmore
      Ignore reality and trust your prejudices, like all the naysayers on this thread
      Feb 6
    • Qualcomm / Product vasG72
      What car? How long a ride? And which city?
      Feb 6
    • Local Motors RedParrot
      It's the final 15% that's going to take 95% of the effort
      Feb 6
    • Sage / Sales
      khCi60

      Sage Sales

      BIO
      East coast
      khCi60more
      Tesla model 3 - in a big city
      Feb 6
  • New pumbaa
    YES but will take a while
    Feb 6 0
  • This comment was deleted by original commenter.

    • Amazon / QA hiiS13
      You mean like killing a person? That's happening now.
      Feb 6
    • Uber zerxifk
      Tesla killed a driver. It made the top story.
      Feb 6
  • Cisco 1029384756
    If you have driven a recent Tesla (HW2.5) and used Navigate on Autopilot, you’d know they are fairly autonomous already. If you drive from say Los Gatos to San Francisco, the Tesla EAP will get you nearly there with no intervention needed except for lane change confirmations (highway portion). And the need for those confirmations will go away in the next 1-2 months.

    So highway full self driving is all but here ALREADY. Off highway is a bit tirickier and will likely take 3-5 years at most.

    Again if you have doubts, rent an EAP equipped model 3 from Turo for a few days and experience for yourself.
    Feb 6 0
  • ADP / Mgmt
    Runner131

    ADP Mgmt

    BIO
    I call myself "Damage Control" as I turnaround poor performance of others and get results.
    Runner131more
    Having recruited ADAS engineers, yes this tech is here to stay. It will do as other technologies have done in the past, start as a premium option until costs come down and you can get it on a junk Kia.

    We are in generation 0.5 more or less currently. It's a proof of concept that people are paying for to allow the companies to gather data.

    Next will be refining algorithms and decision trees, refining it to mirror your own driving style instead of turning into "Sunday driver" mode.

    The reason it will stay is that city planning will change. This will allow future cars to be parked further away from downtowns and city centers. Parking decks / lots take up a lot of space currently that could be turned into more profitable businesses or more green spaces could be made in downtowns if your car could drive up to you from a remote deck.

    Additionally, you have people who are not car enthusiasts. The see cars as dishwashers, just a machine to get from A to B. They don't find pleasure in driving and will enjoy the time consuming content instead of driving. This will bring another revenue stream / partnerships within automotive once this technology has matured (like ABS and airbags before it).

    The reason it has to be so complex is because of "shared roads." You have dumb cars with spark plugs and little else electronic sharing the road with the latest greatest. So the car has to see and "think" what to do in its surroundings. Due to lawsuits being as prevalent as they are in America, that's why you have such conservative autonomous cars today, companies don't want litigation IF a car does XYZ.

    And that's my nickel tour TED talk on autonomous vehicles.
    Feb 6 0