Is recession coming?

Tesla / Eng 1🧟🧞🤺
May 30 623 Comments

Do you see indicators of recession coming in 2019?

Are FANG employees worried about recession?

Economy is good but trade war is scary.

Edit: Added poll.

184 VOTES SELECT ONLY ONE ANSWER
VOTE VIEW RESULT

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TOP 623 Comments
  • Microsoft btYV46
    If Dems win in 2020 the recession is guaranteed
    Jun 2 16
    • HPE / R&D
      Ingenieur

      HPE R&D

      PRE
      Amazon, Microsoft
      Ingenieurmore
      From what I’ve heard from Bernie, he’ll just expand the debt.
      Jun 2
    • TooBigToFail
      Jun 2
    • EA
      dexw85

      EA

      PRE
      HP, Dell
      dexw85more
      Ingenieur - Trump is projected to increase the national debt by 44% by the end of FY2024 and this is without spending to combat a recession.
      Jun 2
    • Google / Eng relprime
      Minor correction: Karl Rove was President (and the Chief of Strategery!) at the start of the last recession.
      Jun 2
    • Aurora OkjQ51
      Republicans and Democrats both overspend. Decimation is assuredly imminent. Just stack cash and use it to buy bitcoin 😛
      Jun 5
  • New / Product
    qGcU18

    New Product

    BIO
    Designer
    qGcU18more
    The Obama economy created a generation of millenials college grads saddled with college debt and no jobs.

    Democrats are historically bad at the economy and trade. Why do you think all of our jobs went to China and Nafta? The Clintons (lawyers) did that.

    How many of you have studied Economics? Sadly, you'll all sink us with your ignorance on this subject.
    Democrats elect lawyers, who usually bring austery. Republicans elect CEOs that's why they bring stability and prosperity.
    Jun 2 24
    • Wayfair bnKI45
      qGcU18 - I completely agree that gdp is not the best way to measure the health of an economy but it is the most commonly used and least subjective. Here's a reputable QOL study which ranks the top 5 US cities for quality of life as San Francisco, Boston, Honolulu, New York and Seattle - https://mobilityexchange.mercer.com/Insights/quality-of-living-rankings Obviously this is very subjective but again your assertion that Democrats can't manage an economy doesn't hold up
      Jun 4
    • Cisco daniel8
      Why do you think people are leaving blue California for red Texas? Once Texas becomes blue and California becomes red, Republicans will finally get the chance to clean up the mess Dems made in CA
      Jun 4
    • Microsoft idknbd
      Cheap real estate. Not sure what it has to do with politics.
      Jun 4
    • Wayfair bnKI45
      Also boming natural resource industries in Texas are a big part of the economic success there. Most states don't have the same wind and shale gas assets. I'm not knocking Texas though, just the assertion that only Republicans can run an economy
      Jun 4
    • Facebook / Eng yObo55
      @qGcU18
      Please check Musk's reply above. If you really know economics, you should understand what he is saying is the truth.
      Jun 12
  • Seal Software GreySeal
    Yes we’re do for a recession. Look at housing prices and recent IPOs to gauge the market. Add to it diminished confidence in the fed to control inflation and the break from using the US dollar as a standard reserve currency
    May 30 11
    • T-Mobile fun oh
      Of course. Only when everyone gets fucked it's called a recession. Not few.
      Jun 2
    • Uber justleave
      In a recession I certainly see new car purchases declining, people wanting to use ride sharing to save money and more jobless people driving for Uber..at that time Uber will be hiring
      Jun 2
    • Roku roku!
      So you are saying that uber is less expensive than owning a car? Maybe once autonomous vehicles are in, but not before that.
      Jun 2
    • T-Mobile fun oh
      Whatever happened to buses...they are the real ride shares.
      Jun 2
    • Amazon dune37
      There’s always an opportunity for Uber to disrupt the bus-sharing economy.
      Jun 2
  • This comment was deleted by original commenter.

    • Apple velocity-
      No doubt Groupon is going to have a heavy layoff
      Jun 2
    • New
      DesusNice

      New

      BIO
      Tc = broke. Education: the Derek Zoolander school for kids who can’t read and want to do other stuff good too
      DesusNicemore
      Groupon still exists ? Now I gotta google that shit.
      Jun 2
    • Microsoft dTJQ43
      Basically if you're a Groupon employee your regular pay will be 50% off, 100% off if things get dire
      Jun 2
    • New / Eng ggg1
      But at least you can still get as many 2-for-1 deals to dip-n-dots as you want as part of your severance package.
      Jun 2
    • Samsung
      chajimogo

      Samsung

      BIO
      Stressed out but surviving
      chajimogomore
      It’s pretty much 99 pct Indian at Groupon. The company became another just in time commerce play with little thought to strategy or innovation
      Jun 3
  • Twitch / Biz Dev Riw948f92
    Scariest thing for me is that I feel innovation is stagnating. I feel we are now making micro improvements to existing products instead of the leap frog products that we saw over the past decade. Plus companies like Google have huge cash balances that are just sitting there cause they don't know where to invest it... Kinda freaks me out
    May 30 18
    • New / R&D VDlD17
      It certainly feels like that but in customer market. If you think how many new customer apps have you installed in the last year or two, it's probably very few or none. The customer market is completely controlled by big players and boring as hell right now.

      However, if you see at the enterprise market, it is blooming. The number of relevant and innovative saas services that is happening is overwhelming. Just look at pagerduty for example. The company went public a few months away with barely $100M revenue. Okta, snowflake, slack, splunk. Tons of innovation is happening in saas enterprise, it just doesn't get as much media attention as new app from Google or Facebook on customer market.
      Jun 2
    • Twitch / Data select *
      That's interesting. Admittedly, I've never done b2b before and have focused primarily on the customer market. Anywhere you would recommend me to look Into to get started?
      Jun 2
    • Google / Eng g3doc
      Twitch what you have written here is patently false. All you need do is look at our balance sheet.
      Jun 2
    • New / Eng jo2305
      Cryptocurrency is the next big innovation. The internet allowed a massive transfer of information, and now with the internet very strongly in place cryptocurrencies will allow a massive transfer of value. Talk to me in 5 years
      Jun 2
    • Twitch / Data select *
      I did see your balance sheet Google. It's massive. I dunno what else there is to say about it. You have 17 bn in cash sitting there, not being reinvested.
      Jun 2
  • Amazon bye amazon
    I actually like the trade war going on right now. It’s good to the democracy overall. The tolerance we had over China in past couple years was just like the tolerance all the Europe and the US had to Nazi Germany before WW2.
    Jun 2 17
    • Amazon fHsj42
      Stop making up or believing lies like WMD in Iraq and Uyghurs camp in China, and having ideological code-war view of the world. Believing a shared prosperity with the rest of the world. Stop spending 700B$ defense bucket which is the next 26 countries combined but spending more on domestic construction and educations etc.
      Jun 3
    • Oracle / IT
      l00tb0x

      Oracle IT

      PRE
      Ericsson, National Instruments
      l00tb0xmore
      Those camps were acknowledged by the Chinese, just saying.
      Jun 3
    • Microsoft gh0stntshl
      Somebody skipped history class and forgot about it....
      Jun 3
    • Booking.com enTd38
      The camps are a well documented fact by now, the UN has spoken about it and there are numerous witnesses that escaped it
      Jun 4
    • Microsoft Zuki64264
      The tolerance for the presidunk's bullshit is what concerns me more. This is a cult, not a political party
      Jun 5
  • Intel 1jpy2usd!
    Get out of the stock market unless you're short. Buy physical silver bullion, it will 5-10x easily. Gold/silver about to start bull run and we will be going back to a gold backed system. Invest in XRP now, you can buy bitcoin in late June at lower prices though. Crypto just started a 3 year bull market. Stock up on food water and other basic. Protect yourself and your family. Things are about to get volatile.
    Jun 2 10
    • New
      DesusNice

      New

      BIO
      Tc = broke. Education: the Derek Zoolander school for kids who can’t read and want to do other stuff good too
      DesusNicemore
      He forgot the part where you should buy land in Idaho and stack gold bricks.
      Jun 2
    • Nvidia
      420_Blaze

      Nvidia

      BIO
      BlazeMaster 10K
      420_Blazemore
      Dear Lord no. Focus on the long-term and not this Gold/Money under your mattress old-timey shit
      Jun 2
    • eBay abababbb
      Hahaha
      Jun 2
    • Snapchat lullerina
      This post clearly must NOT be sarcastic.

      The part about stocking up on food, water, and other things just totally... ya know, makes it less clear.
      Jun 4
    • Schweitzer Engineering Laborator nVqE32
      Is it trump twiting?
      Jun 14
  • Amazon gDVc56
    It does seem like market is softer now. If using real estate as an indicator ... But I'm hopeful it does not mean a full on recession.
    May 30 10
    • Google / Sales meatballer
      Google would be fine. Most global ad spend (I think something like 75%) still goes to traditional advertising (TV, radio, print, billboards). When a recession happens, companies actually like digital advertising even more because there is a much higher, more trackable ROI.
      Jun 2
    • Microsoft DaAX46
      That’s an interesting point. I suppose it’s not like people will stop using the Internet. They will definitely assess their spend thoroughly and cut out lesser advertising channels that aren’t driving ROAS.
      Jun 2
    • Pinterest LucyB
      Were any of you at Google in 2008? Google ads (and digital in general) were impacted far more than traditional media. TV contracts are binding, Google's are not. It's much easier for advertisers to pull out of digital when recession hits.
      Jun 2
    • Rakuten ozMos15
      I dont think Google will have an issue. Ad space, commission driven sales through their search engine etc
      Jun 2
    • Google
      EIon Musk

      Google

      BIO
      TesIa CEO
      EIon Muskmore
      It’s a recession. Everyone will be so screwed
      Jun 3
  • Google Gentrified
    It’s going to be worse than 2008. Housing is at an all time high. Wage growth is slow. Corporate debt is at an all time high. Trade deficit has never been higher and is climbing. Student debt, esp. default rate is at an all time high. Politically we are in a lame duck session, with Dems and republicans blocking any meaningful legislation until presidential elections next year. Fed is reversing rate hikes to try and delay correction. All this when we are technically at full employment. Trade wars now include Mexico, India, EU, Turkey in addition to China. If anyone thinks we are going to grow forever, good luck. I look forward to cleaning you out when all your stocks and ETF’s fall. Start maintaining cash and slowly divest your gains.
    Jun 3 13
    • Facebook FBRock
      Printing more money does NOT drive inflation if it is used to offset debt.
      Jun 3
    • Google Gentrified
      Lol FB. Please consider reading about fractional reserve banking. And more importantly read this: https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/111/inflation/money-supply-inflation/
      Jun 3
    • Flagged by the community.

    • Oracle alwzangry
      QE is a cover for the rich economists' and their buddies' guilt. It kicks the can down the road while they stay relevant and rich.

      We will never hear this because all central banks in major economies (imperialists!) are MMT proponents.

      It takes gutsy governments to let recessions happen, especially in Capitalism. We don't have any in the world today.

      And everything else that Gentrified said above.
      Jun 18
    • Google Gentrified
      You hit the nail alwzangry. The lack of courage to let market cycles play into a recession and make the underlying market stronger is worrisome. We will pay a price with deeper recessions, where the middle class gets hollowed, while the bankers get a bailout.
      Jun 18
  • Command Alkon cydf26
    Yes... Recession would have already been here without Trump...
    Jun 2 10
    • Command Alkon cydf26
      By the way the market has a massive crash every 8 years no matter who is president... Which is proof that no president not even Trump has really anything to do with it.. other than maybe sentiment..
      Jun 2
    • Netflix / Eng LoveDeathR
      Q1 GDP growth 3.1%. Obama never got there despite coming g out of a big recession. Unemployment rate 50 years low. Libtards just can't take the reality.
      Jun 2
    • Microsoft Nudibranch
      Command Alkon nails it. There is so much money going around that has to go somewhere. The market has been all about sentiment ever since the bank bail out.
      Jun 2
    • Google Dilge
      Command Alkon that is not true. We are in the longest consecutive growth in American history. In the 1800s and early 1900s we would have recessions every couple years! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States

      If we aren't careful and the GOP continues to fuck with the Federal Reserve we could see a massive recession. We shouldn't act like 8-12 year growth is normal. It's very abnormal because we are getting good at managing our economy.
      Jun 2
    • Schweitzer Engineering Laborator nVqE32
      what is "Command Alkon"?
      Jun 14
  • New / Eng
    Flatline

    New Eng

    BIO
    I’ve become really good at getting shit done. I’m not even joking. On top of this, people love working with me, which to me is the biggest prize.
    Flatlinemore
    It is coming. Might not be as hard as 2008, but I’m hedging myself into crypto just in case.
    Jun 2 9
    • Salesforce cbnlk
      Ok yeah that’s just f’n stupid. Crypto. Lol indeed
      Jun 2
    • Oracle mlad
      Why all the hate? Every response here laughing about this person hedging into crypto. Can you all explain why that's laughable? It's a decorrelated asset with the stock market, seems like a good hedge for a stock market downturn.
      Jun 2
    • Amazon z1-u4hql@
      You can’t buy bread with crypto. People pull money out of investments and hold cash at the start of a recession. Crypto is an investment, it’s price is likely to crash as soon as people start loosing jobs and need to spend that money.
      Jun 3
    • Oracle mlad
      Thanks for your response.

      You can buy everything on Amazon.com with crypto, including bread, and you even get a 30% discount for doing so. See purse.io for more info.

      Also, you can't buy bread with gold, and yet gold performs well during recessions. During the last 4 recessions gold increased in price 3 out of 4 times.
      Jun 3
    • Salesforce cbnlk
      Get a good IA and you’ll likely already be partially invested in GLD. Crypto is way too volatile. No thanks.
      Jun 3
  • Facebook co6n8q
    I think it’s coming, but I’m not worried at all.
    May 30 3
    • Glassdoor dave7
      Because you're focusing your worrying on the php codebase ?
      Jun 2
    • Google it aint me
      On stressful perf review
      Jun 2
    • Yelp / Eng yelpparty
      lol
      Jun 2
  • Amazon saywha
    We are lucky in tech. There is enough demand even with a softer economy. I worry for people in sectors like manufacturing though.
    May 30 13
    • Facebook 2Blind4U
      I am not sure how many people were in industry in 2009 but it was wayyy different. No one was hiring like at all. Seems everyone has forgotten.
      Jun 2
    • Amazon saywha
      @2Blind4U, oldie checking in. I remember the time. Didn’t get a raise for 3 straight years (not Amazon) even though I got top ratings for two of them. I was still so happy I had a job.
      Jun 2
    • Amazon SDE3Hire
      Tesla - the problem is without reading sites like cleantechnica most people don’t realize a model3 competes with a corolla on 5 year TCO.

      Tesla would need a massive marketing campaign to make that known. Maybe when you have model3 sitting in a lot that will be worth marketing.
      Jun 2
    • Food manufacturing though is safer— people won’t stop eating
      Jun 2
    • Twitch / Data select *
      So is it time to go to Monsanto?
      Jun 2
  • Google / Sales meatballer
    Recessions are kind of good for software companies. You have to remember, the whole Marc Andreessen "software is eating the world" concept. The number of companies who still haven't been "eaten" is staggering. Some businesses and entire verticals are still doing things by hand or whatever "the old way" is for them. Recessions force companies and industries to change. It's a "compelling event," as we say in sales. I had some of my most lucrative sales years during the 2008-2010 recession. Cost cutting is real, and companies turn to software as a way to do it.
    Jun 2 3
    • Amazon SoNex
      Fascinating.. can you recommend some books I can read to learn these things, especially the Sales? I’ve got technical background only... so some newbie friendly suggestions would help.. Thanks!
      Jun 2
    • Google / Sales meatballer
      I'd say start with the classics "Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers" and "Blue Ocean Strategy: How to Create Uncontested Market Space and Make Competition Irrelevant." a16z has a great podcast that talks about trends in the industry that I'd also recommend to get more current information (both of those books are kind of old, but critical to understanding the landscape).
      Jun 2
    • Amazon SoNex
      Thanks!
      Jun 2
  • Qualcomm designstuf
    High tech will be hit hard in a trade war. It is the only thing we export.
    Jun 2 17
    • What other stocks are there of that category except beyond meat?
      Jun 4
    • Google / Eng
      ಬಡ್ಡಿ ಮಗ

      Google Eng

      PRE
      Amazon, Netflix
      ಬಡ್ಡಿ ಮಗmore
      Impossible foods is currently in Series D. Not sure when they plan to IPO. Other larger companies are trying to get into the plant-based meat market.
      Jun 5
    • Taylor Farms Bazzingaa
      Quality wise which do you think taste better? Impossible or Beyond?
      Jun 5
    • Taylor Farms Bazzingaa
      While I haven’t checked Beyond, once i did research on impossible and it looks like they have horrible management. Not sure how good of an investment it is, despite the stanford grads
      Jun 5
    • Google / Eng
      ಬಡ್ಡಿ ಮಗ

      Google Eng

      PRE
      Amazon, Netflix
      ಬಡ್ಡಿ ಮಗmore
      I'm not into real or fake meats, but I've heard people say that the impossible burger is a better imitation. Some (who firmly believe in the soy myths) prefer beyond over impossible as the latter has soy proteins.
      Jun 5
  • Microsoft aUFx83
    If you are like me, you are sitting on a big pile of your company’s stock as part of your net worth. What are your plans for it in the event of a recession? I’m worried since I have a lot of eggs in one basket (my salary and my investments are all “in” Microsoft)
    Jun 2 10
    • Cadence kBtlAn
      Regardless of any recession or expansion period, you shod be well diversified with your investments.
      Jun 2
    • New vWMB75
      I was laid off by Microsoft in 2008 along with 5000 others. No one is safe.
      Jun 2
    • SAP / R&D
      mVH75Bds

      SAP R&D

      BIO
      Mostly human
      mVH75Bdsmore
      Enron stock was once safe. The majority of your investments should be in broad market indexes
      Jun 2
    • Salesforce cbnlk
      Sell a portion and diversify. Find a good IA.
      Jun 2
    • SAP / R&D
      mVH75Bds

      SAP R&D

      BIO
      Mostly human
      mVH75Bdsmore
      Google "Bogleheads forum". Read the sticky "how to ask for portfolio advice" post. Post your holdings. Get feedback from really smart investors.

      Employees often think they have better insight to the performance of a company stock than the market does. They're often wrong
      Jun 2
  • Google / Eng
    ¯\_{ツ} _/¯

    Google Eng

    BIO
    Did a startup, got acquired, did VC, now at Google and angel investing.
    ¯\_{ツ} _/¯more
    Yup, we're due for one (if the feds stopped twiddling with things.) But keep in mind that the last recession was the freakin mother of all recessions - the next one won't feel like that. I'd bet all of my net worth on the next one being significantly milder.

    If you're at a FANG, you may not even notice it's happening, other than housing staying flat (or, you know, more expressions of human misery on the street.)

    With that, I've been autoselling my GSUs for a while and moving the money into a diversified portfolio that's over-indexed on high-interest savings (you can get 2.5% right now.) Keeping it all in your company stock is very risky.

    If you want to follow recession indicators to get a better sense of where we're at, check out reports by EMRI - they do a nice job and are often cited by the banks in their financial outlook reports.
    Jun 2 8
    • Capital One / Eng cans
      Where are you getting 2.5% interest
      Jun 2
    • Moody's / Eng HjDm88
      I heard wealthfront has 2.5%. I have Ally at 2.2%
      Jun 2
    • Google / Eng g3doc
      CIT bank has about 2.5% high yield savings
      Jun 2
    • Nvidia
      420_Blaze

      Nvidia

      BIO
      BlazeMaster 10K
      420_Blazemore
      This is spot on. For a lot of tech companies, we're just going to see a drop in RSU income. For regular working people, it's going to hurt bad.
      Jun 2
    • Amazon / Eng KTUv41
      Why do you think being at FANG means you won’t feel it?
      Jun 2
  • Software engineers are needed no matter what. Non tech positions are goners
    Jun 2 9
    • Never accept less brother, charge forward and demand the best tc
      Jun 2
    • Microsoft idknbd
      Why? That sounds like a terrible way to live. And top performers are fine in every industry, not just tech.
      Jun 2
    • Don't chase the TC start a family and enjoy life
      Jun 2
    • Wayfair bnKI45
      This is either a joke or you are incredibly naive. There is nothing special about software engineers
      Jun 2
    • Microsoft gh0stntshl
      Well actually it is the opposite. Creative people (I.e. _not_ engineers will be most needed when AI fires weak engineers (I.e. all of them))
      Jun 3
  • Tesla / Eng kzsejXdA
    H1B guys, what are your plans if recession is bad and layoff happens?
    Jun 2 6
    • Microsoft kebabs
      Either that or become an illegal alien and live on a park bench
      Jun 2
    • Amazon SoNex
      For starters, don’t be at Tesla?
      Jun 2
    • Credit Karma 🤐_💣
      Take the cash leave for home
      Jun 2
    • Dell KyraM
      Yes. They need to head back home so others can buy their houses for cheap
      Jun 2
    • New / Eng cousin
      I would say head home, but there would probably be less opportunity and TC than US in recession anyways.
      Jun 2
  • Nvidia
    420_Blaze

    Nvidia

    BIO
    BlazeMaster 10K
    420_Blazemore
    Thank God people are finally admitting this. I started talking about this 2017-ish as yields started falling, tax cuts being used mainly for buybacks and the trade war escalating. I was the doom and gloom guy, constantly getting shit for it because anything that's not a green arrow shooting to the upper right is blasphemy in the valley. This was not unexpected.

    Good news though, shit's going to be a bargain in a little bit. Can't wait to buy me a low-interest home in the bay with my veteran home loan hahaha. The economy will eventually go up again, but it will take a few years.
    Jun 2 7
    • Google / Eng JLrC80
      if you pulled out of the stock market in 2017 out of fear of recession, you missed record gains. This is the problem of trying to time the market.
      Jun 2
    • Nvidia
      420_Blaze

      Nvidia

      BIO
      BlazeMaster 10K
      420_Blazemore
      Very true. I sold my old house in Spring 2018 after I had already moved to the bay. If I sold now I would have made significantly less profit. Market timing is incredibly difficult to gauge.
      Jun 2
    • Amazon SDE3Hire
      When I was in the Bay Area I said to myself “I’m only buying here if the big earthquake comes, and people run scared”
      Jun 2
    • Cruise Automation PYEX13
      Even a clock that just has “year 2020” written on it will eventually be correct.
      Jun 3
    • Google
      EIon Musk

      Google

      BIO
      TesIa CEO
      EIon Muskmore
      Hate to say this but there’s no good news, for small people like us at least. We are all getting fucked. If you’re all cash when it hits, you get fucked less harder. But the point is not getting fucked.
      Jun 3