Is recession coming?

Tesla / Eng 1🧟🧞🤺
May 30 623 Comments

Do you see indicators of recession coming in 2019?

Are FANG employees worried about recession?

Economy is good but trade war is scary.

Edit: Added poll.

101 VOTES SELECT ONLY ONE ANSWER
VOTE VIEW RESULT

comments

Want to comment? LOG IN or SIGN UP
TOP 623 Comments
  • Microsoft btYV46
    If Dems win in 2020 the recession is guaranteed
    Jun 2 16
    • Intuit jArt11
      I think it's comical that you all think the president is the single reason for market fluctuations. There is so much more to it than that.
      Jun 2
    • EA
      dexw85

      EA

      PRE
      HP, Dell
      dexw85more
      jArt11 - Of course there’s more to it than just the president. We are all replying to the idiot claiming a democrat would tank the economy. You know what DOESNT help the economy? Trade wars. Massive tariffs. Destroying legislation and regulations that was put in place in response to the LAST recession. All of which are things this president has done.
      Jun 2
    • Pfizer / Eng FcGA12
      Yang gang MATH 2020
      Jun 2
    • Uber sadbear
      Sure Bernie will fix the next reccesion.
      Jun 2
    • HPE / R&D
      Ingenieur

      HPE R&D

      PRE
      Amazon, Microsoft
      Ingenieurmore
      Obama “recovered”. You can’t recover from anything by increasing the government debt. It’s like saying you’ve solved all credit cards debt by transferring the balances to a single credit card with less interest.
      Jun 2
    • HPE / R&D
      Ingenieur

      HPE R&D

      PRE
      Amazon, Microsoft
      Ingenieurmore
      From what I’ve heard from Bernie, he’ll just expand the debt.
      Jun 2
    • TooBigToFail
      Jun 2
    • EA
      dexw85

      EA

      PRE
      HP, Dell
      dexw85more
      Ingenieur - Trump is projected to increase the national debt by 44% by the end of FY2024 and this is without spending to combat a recession.
      Jun 2
    • Google / Eng relprime
      Minor correction: Karl Rove was President (and the Chief of Strategery!) at the start of the last recession.
      Jun 2
    • Aurora OkjQ51
      Republicans and Democrats both overspend. Decimation is assuredly imminent. Just stack cash and use it to buy bitcoin 😛
      Jun 5
  • New / Product
    qGcU18

    New Product

    BIO
    Designer
    qGcU18more
    The Obama economy created a generation of millenials college grads saddled with college debt and no jobs.

    Democrats are historically bad at the economy and trade. Why do you think all of our jobs went to China and Nafta? The Clintons (lawyers) did that.

    How many of you have studied Economics? Sadly, you'll all sink us with your ignorance on this subject.
    Democrats elect lawyers, who usually bring austery. Republicans elect CEOs that's why they bring stability and prosperity.
    Jun 2 24
    • Google
      EIon Musk

      Google

      BIO
      TesIa CEO
      EIon Muskmore
      I highly doubt that you studied economy. Fed seems to get it. QT and rising interest rate. Finally time to pay off 2008. But this administration is doing the exact opposite. Tax cut and big government spending? That’s classic way of putting more currency into the market. When bubble is this big and debt level this high? Are you fucking kidding me? Don’t think so? Go ask Keynes. What’s the end game here? This is economically nonsensical. I can only think of this as vote grabbing shenanigans. Extremely short sighted but maybe that’s the point. Let the next administration inherit this shit.
      Jun 3
    • Musk, isn’t his goal to get re-elected?
      Jun 3
    • Google
      EIon Musk

      Google

      BIO
      TesIa CEO
      EIon Muskmore
      He just need to make it to 2020. Flooding more liquidity now could actually delay what’s due. But everybody knows if bubble has to burst, it better be smaller. What’s the play 2021 to 2025? No idea. Like I said, don’t understand what’s government’s end game here.
      Jun 3
    • I don’t necessarily think it’s the government’s game. Looks like a personal game to me.
      I am very confused
      Jun 3
    • Microsoft gh0stntshl
      You are an idiot and the worst part is that you don’t know what you don’t know.
      Jun 3
    • Wayfair bnKI45
      qGcU18 - I completely agree that gdp is not the best way to measure the health of an economy but it is the most commonly used and least subjective. Here's a reputable QOL study which ranks the top 5 US cities for quality of life as San Francisco, Boston, Honolulu, New York and Seattle - https://mobilityexchange.mercer.com/Insights/quality-of-living-rankings Obviously this is very subjective but again your assertion that Democrats can't manage an economy doesn't hold up
      Jun 4
    • Cisco daniel8
      Why do you think people are leaving blue California for red Texas? Once Texas becomes blue and California becomes red, Republicans will finally get the chance to clean up the mess Dems made in CA
      Jun 4
    • Microsoft idknbd
      Cheap real estate. Not sure what it has to do with politics.
      Jun 4
    • Wayfair bnKI45
      Also boming natural resource industries in Texas are a big part of the economic success there. Most states don't have the same wind and shale gas assets. I'm not knocking Texas though, just the assertion that only Republicans can run an economy
      Jun 4
    • Facebook / Eng yObo55
      @qGcU18
      Please check Musk's reply above. If you really know economics, you should understand what he is saying is the truth.
      Jun 12
  • This comment was deleted by original commenter.

    • Apple velocity-
      Impact will vary. Companies making no monies vs profiting billions in a quarter going to see different level of layoffs
      Jun 2
    • Amazon / Eng
      onMyWay

      Amazon Eng

      BIO
      AWS
      onMyWaymore
      ^^
      Jun 2
    • PayPal wknu08
      Companies see this period as an opportunity and refreshes the staff
      Jun 2
    • Apple velocity-
      No doubt Groupon is going to have a heavy layoff
      Jun 2
    • New
      DesusNice

      New

      BIO
      Tc = broke. Education: the Derek Zoolander school for kids who can’t read and want to do other stuff good too
      DesusNicemore
      Groupon still exists ? Now I gotta google that shit.
      Jun 2
    • Microsoft dTJQ43
      Basically if you're a Groupon employee your regular pay will be 50% off, 100% off if things get dire
      Jun 2
    • New / Eng ggg1
      But at least you can still get as many 2-for-1 deals to dip-n-dots as you want as part of your severance package.
      Jun 2
    • Samsung
      chajimogo

      Samsung

      BIO
      Stressed out but surviving
      chajimogomore
      It’s pretty much 99 pct Indian at Groupon. The company became another just in time commerce play with little thought to strategy or innovation
      Jun 3
  • Seal Software GreySeal
    Yes we’re do for a recession. Look at housing prices and recent IPOs to gauge the market. Add to it diminished confidence in the fed to control inflation and the break from using the US dollar as a standard reserve currency
    May 30 11
    • Uber bаb
      What on earth is Seal Software?
      Jun 2
    • Zillow Group TKact2345
      You didn’t mention the bond yield curve. Usually seen as the strongest indicator of investor sentiment.
      Jun 2
    • Amazon dune37
      It’s a company that develops software to track harbor seals and sea lions.
      Jun 2
    • T-Mobile fun oh
      It's what Uber will be after recession
      Jun 2
    • Uber bаb
      Speaking of layoffs, have fun looking for a new job in a recession once the Sprint merger is finalized.
      Jun 2
    • T-Mobile fun oh
      Of course. Only when everyone gets fucked it's called a recession. Not few.
      Jun 2
    • Uber justleave
      In a recession I certainly see new car purchases declining, people wanting to use ride sharing to save money and more jobless people driving for Uber..at that time Uber will be hiring
      Jun 2
    • Roku roku!
      So you are saying that uber is less expensive than owning a car? Maybe once autonomous vehicles are in, but not before that.
      Jun 2
    • T-Mobile fun oh
      Whatever happened to buses...they are the real ride shares.
      Jun 2
    • Amazon dune37
      There’s always an opportunity for Uber to disrupt the bus-sharing economy.
      Jun 2
  • Twitch / Biz Dev Riw948f92
    Scariest thing for me is that I feel innovation is stagnating. I feel we are now making micro improvements to existing products instead of the leap frog products that we saw over the past decade. Plus companies like Google have huge cash balances that are just sitting there cause they don't know where to invest it... Kinda freaks me out
    May 30 18
    • Google / Eng g3doc
      Alphabet has been pouring a ton of money into future bets
      Jun 2
    • DocuSign ayrg12
      Well without R&D what else is there? We do need a new breakthrough and that's the only way to do so.
      Jun 2
    • Twitch / Data select *
      @google that money is inconsequential compared to alphabets balance sheet. And future bets are really far into the future. Waymo is prob closest to commercialization, and it's a great company and all, but from what I hear from the inside, the tech is still years away from being ready to fully deploy.
      Jun 2
    • Unity qaNM33
      There is a lot more innovation now than 10 years ago.
      Jun 2
    • Twitch / Data select *
      I think there is a lot of marginal innovations that are happening, but big leaps are not really that common anymore. Couples with more regulations, I feel like slowdown is somewhat eminent
      Jun 2
    • New / R&D VDlD17
      It certainly feels like that but in customer market. If you think how many new customer apps have you installed in the last year or two, it's probably very few or none. The customer market is completely controlled by big players and boring as hell right now.

      However, if you see at the enterprise market, it is blooming. The number of relevant and innovative saas services that is happening is overwhelming. Just look at pagerduty for example. The company went public a few months away with barely $100M revenue. Okta, snowflake, slack, splunk. Tons of innovation is happening in saas enterprise, it just doesn't get as much media attention as new app from Google or Facebook on customer market.
      Jun 2
    • Twitch / Data select *
      That's interesting. Admittedly, I've never done b2b before and have focused primarily on the customer market. Anywhere you would recommend me to look Into to get started?
      Jun 2
    • Google / Eng g3doc
      Twitch what you have written here is patently false. All you need do is look at our balance sheet.
      Jun 2
    • New / Eng jo2305
      Cryptocurrency is the next big innovation. The internet allowed a massive transfer of information, and now with the internet very strongly in place cryptocurrencies will allow a massive transfer of value. Talk to me in 5 years
      Jun 2
    • Twitch / Data select *
      I did see your balance sheet Google. It's massive. I dunno what else there is to say about it. You have 17 bn in cash sitting there, not being reinvested.
      Jun 2
  • Amazon bye amazon
    I actually like the trade war going on right now. It’s good to the democracy overall. The tolerance we had over China in past couple years was just like the tolerance all the Europe and the US had to Nazi Germany before WW2.
    Jun 2 17
    • Amazon fHsj42
      Trump’s ban of Huawei is actually ban of US chip makers depends on which perspective you look at it. It will only promote China’s own chip industry, which is under developed mostly because they rely on US chips. China has much bright future that US because Chinese people work hard without complains while US like to blame others and the world. Trade war won’t save US from declining but will cost US reputation and economic growth, and it will make China be more independent on chips and software.
      Jun 2
    • Amazon bye amazon
      Nah, China’s government bans everything that will threat the party. Innovation and also the people are among the ‘everything’ ;) If China is so good, why all the Chinese want to come to the US anyway? Don’t forget most Chinese officials and their relatives are US citizens lol
      Jun 2
    • Intel eKPG80
      If china was so good why were they poor in the first place for decades?
      Jun 2
    • Microsoft dTJQ43
      I agree China was becoming an issue but a trade war isn't a solution to that problem. It's like spotting a burglar in your home and shooting both him and yourself in the foot and then when questioned why you respond "Didn't you see there was a burglar?".

      Tariffs are tax on Americans
      Jun 3
    • Amazon bye amazon
      Hmm... then what is the better solution? Would you rather go to war with China or use economy to slowly change China? It seems like people all agree we need to change China, but complain about trade war will hurt ourselves. Will you not hurt when you do nothing and keep allowing China to continue growing its power?
      Jun 3
    • Amazon fHsj42
      Stop making up or believing lies like WMD in Iraq and Uyghurs camp in China, and having ideological code-war view of the world. Believing a shared prosperity with the rest of the world. Stop spending 700B$ defense bucket which is the next 26 countries combined but spending more on domestic construction and educations etc.
      Jun 3
    • Oracle / IT
      l00tb0x

      Oracle IT

      PRE
      Ericsson, National Instruments
      l00tb0xmore
      Those camps were acknowledged by the Chinese, just saying.
      Jun 3
    • Microsoft gh0stntshl
      Somebody skipped history class and forgot about it....
      Jun 3
    • Booking.com enTd38
      The camps are a well documented fact by now, the UN has spoken about it and there are numerous witnesses that escaped it
      Jun 4
    • Microsoft Zuki64264
      The tolerance for the presidunk's bullshit is what concerns me more. This is a cult, not a political party
      Jun 5
  • Intel 1jpy2usd!
    Get out of the stock market unless you're short. Buy physical silver bullion, it will 5-10x easily. Gold/silver about to start bull run and we will be going back to a gold backed system. Invest in XRP now, you can buy bitcoin in late June at lower prices though. Crypto just started a 3 year bull market. Stock up on food water and other basic. Protect yourself and your family. Things are about to get volatile.
    Jun 2 10
    • New / Eng Olmk72
      If you could predict the future with as much certainty as you claim you wouldn't have to work at a dying chip manufacturer.
      Jun 2
    • Reddit u7hj55
      > we will be going back to a gold backed system

      😂😂😂😂😂😂
      Jun 2
    • United Wholesale Mortgage / Eng
      zpyM13

      United Wholesale Mortgage Eng

      PRE
      General Motors, United Wholesale Mortgage
      zpyM13more
      Doomsday prepper detected. Boy you are a funky bunch
      Jun 2
    • New / Eng cousin
      Too much time in /biz
      Jun 2
    • New / Eng SharmaG
      Lol at 10x.

      Gold is a good alternate "currency" to hold right now, though.
      Jun 2
    • New
      DesusNice

      New

      BIO
      Tc = broke. Education: the Derek Zoolander school for kids who can’t read and want to do other stuff good too
      DesusNicemore
      He forgot the part where you should buy land in Idaho and stack gold bricks.
      Jun 2
    • Nvidia
      420_Blaze

      Nvidia

      BIO
      BlazeMaster 10K
      420_Blazemore
      Dear Lord no. Focus on the long-term and not this Gold/Money under your mattress old-timey shit
      Jun 2
    • eBay abababbb
      Hahaha
      Jun 2
    • Snapchat lullerina
      This post clearly must NOT be sarcastic.

      The part about stocking up on food, water, and other things just totally... ya know, makes it less clear.
      Jun 4
    • Schweitzer Engineering Laborator nVqE32
      Is it trump twiting?
      6d
  • Amazon gDVc56
    It does seem like market is softer now. If using real estate as an indicator ... But I'm hopeful it does not mean a full on recession.
    May 30 10
    • Tesla / Eng 1🧟🧞🤺
      OP
      Are you worried about job security being in Amazon during recession? Just trying to understand what people in FANG think about recession.
      May 30
    • Amazon gDVc56
      There is always that question sure. If the economy is not doing well, companies make less, and stop hiring, and they will let people go if they have to. Even the big FANG can't escape this. Maybe they will be less affected, but I think for Amazon a big chunk of the company's profit is tied to consumer spending. During recession that chunk will shrink, so it is perhaps more affected than say, google ...
      May 30
    • Microsoft DaAX46
      Nope, Google would be affected nearly as much. The supermajority of their revenue still comes from search ads. Search ads are purchased by people trying to sell things, and if fewer people are buying they’ll have less to spend. That’ll mean cuts to ads certainly but also all non-essential other teams.
      Jun 2
    • Amazon QXHX15
      Why do you think google will be less affected ? Majority of googles revenue comes from ads. If consumer spending gets affected during recession, I am assuming it will also affect the marketing spend by companies drastically which means googles ad revenue will be affected too.
      Jun 2
    • Amazon / Eng cayde
      I don't think Amazon will be as affected. AWS is the cash cow. Half the internet runs on it. But if major online players see a reduction in use, then naturally that will trickle up to AWS. Hm. Maybe they'll still get hit just as bad.
      Jun 2
    • Google / Sales meatballer
      Google would be fine. Most global ad spend (I think something like 75%) still goes to traditional advertising (TV, radio, print, billboards). When a recession happens, companies actually like digital advertising even more because there is a much higher, more trackable ROI.
      Jun 2
    • Microsoft DaAX46
      That’s an interesting point. I suppose it’s not like people will stop using the Internet. They will definitely assess their spend thoroughly and cut out lesser advertising channels that aren’t driving ROAS.
      Jun 2
    • Pinterest LucyB
      Were any of you at Google in 2008? Google ads (and digital in general) were impacted far more than traditional media. TV contracts are binding, Google's are not. It's much easier for advertisers to pull out of digital when recession hits.
      Jun 2
    • Rakuten ozMos15
      I dont think Google will have an issue. Ad space, commission driven sales through their search engine etc
      Jun 2
    • Google
      EIon Musk

      Google

      BIO
      TesIa CEO
      EIon Muskmore
      It’s a recession. Everyone will be so screwed
      Jun 3
  • Command Alkon cydf26
    Yes... Recession would have already been here without Trump...
    Jun 2 10
    • EA
      dexw85

      EA

      PRE
      HP, Dell
      dexw85more
      Based on what data exactly? What legislation has Trump passed that did anything to prevent a recession?
      Jun 2
    • Nvidia
      420_Blaze

      Nvidia

      BIO
      BlazeMaster 10K
      420_Blazemore
      Yes, a recession was likely at some point, but Trump did all the wrong things that will exacerbate it.

      + Trade War
      + Tax cuts for the rich
      + Severe deficits during boom times

      Because of his actions, it caused yields to invert faster and left us less prepared to spend money to get the economy going after the downturn.
      Jun 2
    • Command Alkon cydf26
      You don't need legislation to prevent a recession.... Clearly ... All you need is sentiment... The whole dang market is sentiment.... Trump created positive sentiment... Look at the graphs from the day he took office . It's very obvious that he created a market surge.
      Jun 2
    • Command Alkon cydf26
      what really set up the market to fail was low interest rates because when the interest rates come back up it's going to cause an asset crash....
      Jun 2
    • Command Alkon cydf26
      so the recession will happen but it's not based on anything to do with Trump it's based on what the Federal reserve did for the past 8 to 12 years....
      Jun 2
    • Command Alkon cydf26
      By the way the market has a massive crash every 8 years no matter who is president... Which is proof that no president not even Trump has really anything to do with it.. other than maybe sentiment..
      Jun 2
    • Netflix / Eng LoveDeathR
      Q1 GDP growth 3.1%. Obama never got there despite coming g out of a big recession. Unemployment rate 50 years low. Libtards just can't take the reality.
      Jun 2
    • Microsoft Nudibranch
      Command Alkon nails it. There is so much money going around that has to go somewhere. The market has been all about sentiment ever since the bank bail out.
      Jun 2
    • Google Dilge
      Command Alkon that is not true. We are in the longest consecutive growth in American history. In the 1800s and early 1900s we would have recessions every couple years! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States

      If we aren't careful and the GOP continues to fuck with the Federal Reserve we could see a massive recession. We shouldn't act like 8-12 year growth is normal. It's very abnormal because we are getting good at managing our economy.
      Jun 2
    • Schweitzer Engineering Laborator nVqE32
      what is "Command Alkon"?
      6d
  • New / Eng
    Flatline

    New Eng

    BIO
    I’ve become really good at getting shit done. I’m not even joking. On top of this, people love working with me, which to me is the biggest prize.
    Flatlinemore
    It is coming. Might not be as hard as 2008, but I’m hedging myself into crypto just in case.
    Jun 2 9
    • Amazon saywha
      Lol
      Jun 2
    • Spotify hsiaiu8181
      Hahahahahahahaha
      Jun 2
    • Spotify hsiaiu8181
      gonna bury my money in pretend bullshit
      Jun 2
    • Nordstrom / Eng Ncjdkelsk
      Lol
      Jun 2
    • Salesforce cbnlk
      Ok yeah that’s just f’n stupid. Crypto. Lol indeed
      Jun 2
    • Oracle mlad
      Why all the hate? Every response here laughing about this person hedging into crypto. Can you all explain why that's laughable? It's a decorrelated asset with the stock market, seems like a good hedge for a stock market downturn.
      Jun 2
    • Amazon z1-u4hql@
      You can’t buy bread with crypto. People pull money out of investments and hold cash at the start of a recession. Crypto is an investment, it’s price is likely to crash as soon as people start loosing jobs and need to spend that money.
      Jun 3
    • Oracle mlad
      Thanks for your response.

      You can buy everything on Amazon.com with crypto, including bread, and you even get a 30% discount for doing so. See purse.io for more info.

      Also, you can't buy bread with gold, and yet gold performs well during recessions. During the last 4 recessions gold increased in price 3 out of 4 times.
      Jun 3
    • Salesforce cbnlk
      Get a good IA and you’ll likely already be partially invested in GLD. Crypto is way too volatile. No thanks.
      Jun 3
  • Facebook co6n8q
    I think it’s coming, but I’m not worried at all.
    May 30 3
    • Glassdoor dave7
      Because you're focusing your worrying on the php codebase ?
      Jun 2
    • Google it aint me
      On stressful perf review
      Jun 2
    • Yelp / Eng yelpparty
      lol
      Jun 2
  • Amazon saywha
    We are lucky in tech. There is enough demand even with a softer economy. I worry for people in sectors like manufacturing though.
    May 30 13
    • Tesla / Eng 1🧟🧞🤺
      OP
      ^Tesla is already fucked. That is why I want to hear from companies that have good cash reserve.
      May 30
    • Twitch / Biz Dev Riw948f92
      Wait... So should I sell shares now?

      And 2. Not sure if having a giant balance sheet is going to save you in the long term
      May 31
    • Tesla lip
      Its easy to say we are fucked but a small downturn might help us in the long run. When people are forced to be frugal they pick products with less cost of ownership over the long run. Regardless of how people feel about Tesla the maths add up to a cheaper car over the years than even a partially specced out toyota corolla. This obviously wont help S and X but 3 should benefit.
      Jun 2
    • SpaceX / Ops iNcu15
      Tesla model 3 is the only car that makes sense in the $35k to 50k range. Everything else is a joke.
      Jun 2
    • Twitch / Data select *
      I do really like the model x. It's not economical, but every time I sit in one and hear the helicopter wing doors opening and closing, its damn mesmerizing
      Jun 2
    • Facebook 2Blind4U
      I am not sure how many people were in industry in 2009 but it was wayyy different. No one was hiring like at all. Seems everyone has forgotten.
      Jun 2
    • Amazon saywha
      @2Blind4U, oldie checking in. I remember the time. Didn’t get a raise for 3 straight years (not Amazon) even though I got top ratings for two of them. I was still so happy I had a job.
      Jun 2
    • Amazon SDE3Hire
      Tesla - the problem is without reading sites like cleantechnica most people don’t realize a model3 competes with a corolla on 5 year TCO.

      Tesla would need a massive marketing campaign to make that known. Maybe when you have model3 sitting in a lot that will be worth marketing.
      Jun 2
    • Food manufacturing though is safer— people won’t stop eating
      Jun 2
    • Twitch / Data select *
      So is it time to go to Monsanto?
      Jun 2
  • Google Gentrified
    It’s going to be worse than 2008. Housing is at an all time high. Wage growth is slow. Corporate debt is at an all time high. Trade deficit has never been higher and is climbing. Student debt, esp. default rate is at an all time high. Politically we are in a lame duck session, with Dems and republicans blocking any meaningful legislation until presidential elections next year. Fed is reversing rate hikes to try and delay correction. All this when we are technically at full employment. Trade wars now include Mexico, India, EU, Turkey in addition to China. If anyone thinks we are going to grow forever, good luck. I look forward to cleaning you out when all your stocks and ETF’s fall. Start maintaining cash and slowly divest your gains.
    Jun 3 13
    • Booking.com enTd38
      QE is just a fancy word for printing money like there is no tomorrow which only adds more debt, the fed has 4 trillion on their balance sheet compared to few hundred billion when 2008 happened, they always said they did QE with the intention of reversing it at the end, doing QE endlessly is just printing money which eventually will kill the dollar.
      Jun 3
    • Netflix / Eng LoveDeathR
      Obama printed tons of money. Doubled the national debt and had the lowest growth rate since WWII.
      Jun 3
    • Facebook FBRock
      So? Check how much Japan and China printed. U.S. is safe like heaven.
      Jun 3
    • Google Gentrified
      The challenge with printing more money when you are at full employment is inflation. Fed has dual mandates of 2% inflation and full employment (considered at 5% unemployment rate). If you print more money you drive up inflation, and real wages are already slow moving, so the fed will be forced to raise rates as growth stalls. QE is like a band aid for a bleeding wound, eventually the Fed has to buy back all that money they print and ‘unwind’ QE. Also do you think the president, in election year, will be more populist and spend more or focus on fiscally reducing deficit?
      Jun 3
    • Microsoft whadaheck
      I think Obama didn’t have choices due to Great Recession. I wouldn’t blame that on him especially for the first 5 years.
      Jun 3
    • Facebook FBRock
      Printing more money does NOT drive inflation if it is used to offset debt.
      Jun 3
    • Google Gentrified
      Lol FB. Please consider reading about fractional reserve banking. And more importantly read this: https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/111/inflation/money-supply-inflation/
      Jun 3
    • Flagged by the community.

    • Oracle alwzangry
      QE is a cover for the rich economists' and their buddies' guilt. It kicks the can down the road while they stay relevant and rich.

      We will never hear this because all central banks in major economies (imperialists!) are MMT proponents.

      It takes gutsy governments to let recessions happen, especially in Capitalism. We don't have any in the world today.

      And everything else that Gentrified said above.
      2d
    • Google Gentrified
      You hit the nail alwzangry. The lack of courage to let market cycles play into a recession and make the underlying market stronger is worrisome. We will pay a price with deeper recessions, where the middle class gets hollowed, while the bankers get a bailout.
      2d
  • Google / Sales meatballer
    Recessions are kind of good for software companies. You have to remember, the whole Marc Andreessen "software is eating the world" concept. The number of companies who still haven't been "eaten" is staggering. Some businesses and entire verticals are still doing things by hand or whatever "the old way" is for them. Recessions force companies and industries to change. It's a "compelling event," as we say in sales. I had some of my most lucrative sales years during the 2008-2010 recession. Cost cutting is real, and companies turn to software as a way to do it.
    Jun 2 3
    • Amazon SoNex
      Fascinating.. can you recommend some books I can read to learn these things, especially the Sales? I’ve got technical background only... so some newbie friendly suggestions would help.. Thanks!
      Jun 2
    • Google / Sales meatballer
      I'd say start with the classics "Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers" and "Blue Ocean Strategy: How to Create Uncontested Market Space and Make Competition Irrelevant." a16z has a great podcast that talks about trends in the industry that I'd also recommend to get more current information (both of those books are kind of old, but critical to understanding the landscape).
      Jun 2
    • Amazon SoNex
      Thanks!
      Jun 2
  • Qualcomm designstuf
    High tech will be hit hard in a trade war. It is the only thing we export.
    Jun 2 17
    • Qualcomm designstuf
      What I heard is that the subsidy is mostly going to large corporate multi-millionaire owned farms and not small family farms. Probably would cost more in accounting and filing costs to get the subsidy if you are a small family farm.
      Jun 2
    • Amazon ooooookkk
      Joke: AI is American owned
      Jun 2
    • Microsoft idknbd
      My family owns a farm. Small farm, only 100 acres or so. Subsidy is worth about $30. Not a typo.
      Jun 2
    • I get the impression that it costs more to subsidize farms in the US (land, water and cost of production) than what crops yield in the open market. I understand that we are actually selling at a loss and that food could be purchased from a 3rd wold country for cheaper but ppl would lose jobs or whatever...
      Jun 2
    • Google / Eng
      ಬಡ್ಡಿ ಮಗ

      Google Eng

      PRE
      Amazon, Netflix
      ಬಡ್ಡಿ ಮಗmore
      Not only do agriculture subsidies go to large farms, most of it goes to meat and dairy ($38B) which don't contribute proportionately to exports ($20-25B). On the other hand fruits and vegetables receive very little ($17M) and contribute highly ($6-7B).

      American farmers need to grow more fruits and veggies, and Americans need to swap out meat for plant-based burgers. No wonder $BYND stock is taking off like a rocket.
      Jun 3
    • What other stocks are there of that category except beyond meat?
      Jun 4
    • Google / Eng
      ಬಡ್ಡಿ ಮಗ

      Google Eng

      PRE
      Amazon, Netflix
      ಬಡ್ಡಿ ಮಗmore
      Impossible foods is currently in Series D. Not sure when they plan to IPO. Other larger companies are trying to get into the plant-based meat market.
      Jun 5
    • Taylor Farms Bazzingaa
      Quality wise which do you think taste better? Impossible or Beyond?
      Jun 5
    • Taylor Farms Bazzingaa
      While I haven’t checked Beyond, once i did research on impossible and it looks like they have horrible management. Not sure how good of an investment it is, despite the stanford grads
      Jun 5
    • Google / Eng
      ಬಡ್ಡಿ ಮಗ

      Google Eng

      PRE
      Amazon, Netflix
      ಬಡ್ಡಿ ಮಗmore
      I'm not into real or fake meats, but I've heard people say that the impossible burger is a better imitation. Some (who firmly believe in the soy myths) prefer beyond over impossible as the latter has soy proteins.
      Jun 5
  • Microsoft aUFx83
    If you are like me, you are sitting on a big pile of your company’s stock as part of your net worth. What are your plans for it in the event of a recession? I’m worried since I have a lot of eggs in one basket (my salary and my investments are all “in” Microsoft)
    Jun 2 10
    • LinkedIn / Other ZerotoIPO
      Msft is as safe as it gets in Tech industry.
      Jun 2
    • Microsoft / Eng
      MgIr74

      Microsoft Eng

      PRE
      Amazon
      MgIr74more
      Sell your RSUs on vest.
      Jun 2
    • If your not retiring soon leave it there. Microsoft isn’t going away. If the prices fall it will eventually come back up.
      Jun 2
    • Rakuten ozMos15
      Dude Microsoft will always be a thing. Especially since theyre partnering with Valve to bring their first party games to PC.

      If a depression hits, buy more microsoft stock because people will be selling. And when people sell, options are cheap.
      Jun 2
    • Wayfair bnKI45
      Definitely start selling the stock, reinvest it in an index fund and / or diversify into other asset classes. Makes no sense having high concentration in any one company
      Jun 2
    • Cadence kBtlAn
      Regardless of any recession or expansion period, you shod be well diversified with your investments.
      Jun 2
    • New vWMB75
      I was laid off by Microsoft in 2008 along with 5000 others. No one is safe.
      Jun 2
    • SAP / R&D
      mVH75Bds

      SAP R&D

      BIO
      Mostly human
      mVH75Bdsmore
      Enron stock was once safe. The majority of your investments should be in broad market indexes
      Jun 2
    • Salesforce cbnlk
      Sell a portion and diversify. Find a good IA.
      Jun 2
    • SAP / R&D
      mVH75Bds

      SAP R&D

      BIO
      Mostly human
      mVH75Bdsmore
      Google "Bogleheads forum". Read the sticky "how to ask for portfolio advice" post. Post your holdings. Get feedback from really smart investors.

      Employees often think they have better insight to the performance of a company stock than the market does. They're often wrong
      Jun 2
  • Yup, we're due for one (if the feds stopped twiddling with things.) But keep in mind that the last recession was the freakin mother of all recessions - the next one won't feel like that. I'd bet all of my net worth on the next one being significantly milder.

    If you're at a FANG, you may not even notice it's happening, other than housing staying flat (or, you know, more expressions of human misery on the street.)

    With that, I've been autoselling my GSUs for a while and moving the money into a diversified portfolio that's over-indexed on high-interest savings (you can get 2.5% right now.) Keeping it all in your company stock is very risky.

    If you want to follow recession indicators to get a better sense of where we're at, check out reports by EMRI - they do a nice job and are often cited by the banks in their financial outlook reports.
    Jun 2 8
    • Google / Eng g3doc
      +1
      Jun 2
    • Interloc Solutions / Eng talentless
      I don't have much experience or knowledge on the matter, but what makes you think that the next recession won't be as bad as the previous one?
      Jun 2
    • Kaiser Permanente / Data mzlO62
      Regression to mean...
      Jun 2
    • Capital One / Eng cans
      Where are you getting 2.5% interest
      Jun 2
    • Moody's / Eng HjDm88
      I heard wealthfront has 2.5%. I have Ally at 2.2%
      Jun 2
    • Google / Eng g3doc
      CIT bank has about 2.5% high yield savings
      Jun 2
    • Nvidia
      420_Blaze

      Nvidia

      BIO
      BlazeMaster 10K
      420_Blazemore
      This is spot on. For a lot of tech companies, we're just going to see a drop in RSU income. For regular working people, it's going to hurt bad.
      Jun 2
    • Amazon KTUv41
      Why do you think being at FANG means you won’t feel it?
      Jun 2
  • Software engineers are needed no matter what. Non tech positions are goners
    Jun 2 9
    • Microsoft idknbd
      Nope. plenty of engineers laid off in the last w recessions
      Jun 2
    • Every recession is unique
      Jun 2
    • Command Alkon cydf26
      Meh... But they all rhyme...
      Jun 2
    • Microsoft idknbd
      I see nothing special about our profession that makes it recession proof. Top performers will be fine, sure, but most of us are not top performers. And even top performers will take a TC hit.
      Jun 2
    • Never accept less brother, charge forward and demand the best tc
      Jun 2
    • Microsoft idknbd
      Why? That sounds like a terrible way to live. And top performers are fine in every industry, not just tech.
      Jun 2
    • Don't chase the TC start a family and enjoy life
      Jun 2
    • Wayfair bnKI45
      This is either a joke or you are incredibly naive. There is nothing special about software engineers
      Jun 2
    • Microsoft gh0stntshl
      Well actually it is the opposite. Creative people (I.e. _not_ engineers will be most needed when AI fires weak engineers (I.e. all of them))
      Jun 3
  • Tesla / Eng kzsejXdA
    H1B guys, what are your plans if recession is bad and layoff happens?
    Jun 2 6
    • Amazon Koyl86
      Packup and head home !!
      Jun 2
    • Microsoft kebabs
      Either that or become an illegal alien and live on a park bench
      Jun 2
    • Amazon SoNex
      For starters, don’t be at Tesla?
      Jun 2
    • Credit Karma 🤐_💣
      Take the cash leave for home
      Jun 2
    • Dell KyraM
      Yes. They need to head back home so others can buy their houses for cheap
      Jun 2
    • New / Eng cousin
      I would say head home, but there would probably be less opportunity and TC than US in recession anyways.
      Jun 2
  • Nvidia
    420_Blaze

    Nvidia

    BIO
    BlazeMaster 10K
    420_Blazemore
    Thank God people are finally admitting this. I started talking about this 2017-ish as yields started falling, tax cuts being used mainly for buybacks and the trade war escalating. I was the doom and gloom guy, constantly getting shit for it because anything that's not a green arrow shooting to the upper right is blasphemy in the valley. This was not unexpected.

    Good news though, shit's going to be a bargain in a little bit. Can't wait to buy me a low-interest home in the bay with my veteran home loan hahaha. The economy will eventually go up again, but it will take a few years.
    Jun 2 7
    • New eQjn37
      It’d be better for a recession and an earthquake to rip through for any home prices to rip through. Plus low home prices in the bay will be like 700-800k. It won’t go much lower than that
      Jun 2
    • Nvidia
      420_Blaze

      Nvidia

      BIO
      BlazeMaster 10K
      420_Blazemore
      Well yeah, of course. The housing market long-term will continue to rise significantly. The trick is finding a home when interest is super low and during the very brief contractions in the market before they skyrocket again.

      https://www.bayareamarketreports.com/trend/3-recessions-2-bubbles-and-a-baby
      Jun 2
    • Google / Eng JLrC80
      if you pulled out of the stock market in 2017 out of fear of recession, you missed record gains. This is the problem of trying to time the market.
      Jun 2
    • Nvidia
      420_Blaze

      Nvidia

      BIO
      BlazeMaster 10K
      420_Blazemore
      Very true. I sold my old house in Spring 2018 after I had already moved to the bay. If I sold now I would have made significantly less profit. Market timing is incredibly difficult to gauge.
      Jun 2
    • Amazon SDE3Hire
      When I was in the Bay Area I said to myself “I’m only buying here if the big earthquake comes, and people run scared”
      Jun 2
    • Cruise Automation PYEX13
      Even a clock that just has “year 2020” written on it will eventually be correct.
      Jun 3
    • Google
      EIon Musk

      Google

      BIO
      TesIa CEO
      EIon Muskmore
      Hate to say this but there’s no good news, for small people like us at least. We are all getting fucked. If you’re all cash when it hits, you get fucked less harder. But the point is not getting fucked.
      Jun 3
  • Microsoft SWsR51
    Recession? Maybe. Caused by trade war? LoL. Did anybody here ever read an economics book?
    Jun 2 6
    • Salesforce Tsark
      Can you suggest a good economics book?
      Jun 2
    • Command Alkon cydf26
      Thomas sowell basic economics..
      Jun 2
    • Microsoft SWsR51
      Beat me to it. Sowell.
      Jun 2
    • Uber vbkjhfd
      I also recommend Sowell
      Jun 2
    • Microsoft not-a-dev
      Trade wars do cause recessions. And yes I have taken many economics classes.
      Jun 2
    • Amazon Ewechs
      Trade wars can also cause real wars. The Great Depression was one of the main drivers for japan, whose economy was dependent on importing goods, to seek its own material resources through conquest during the 1930’s. I don’t see trade wars leading to anything positive or productive.
      Jun 8
  • Google
    AIMLOK

    Google

    BIO
    I once served 5TB
    AIMLOKmore
    Winter is coming and it won't be just one night like in Game of Thrones.
    Jun 2 1
    • Nvidia
      420_Blaze

      Nvidia

      BIO
      BlazeMaster 10K
      420_Blazemore
      This description is perfect
      Jun 2
  • Twitter finetody
    Bay Area real estate is finally heading down. Look at average and median prices for Cupertino (or Sunnyvale, Mountain View, even Palo alto) now, they are lower than this time last year
    May 30 5
  • Nvidia flybu
    Be a high performer and valuable and you'll likely never see a layoff.
    Jun 2 4
    • 100% agree. Also don't be an immigrant ... you know, some people are luckier than others when it comes to layoffs
      Jun 2
    • Intuit splatt
      yeah, for some people it just means vacationing and living simply for a while.
      Jun 2
    • DoorDash xPUT88
      Lol
      Jun 2
    • Ricoh UncleRicoh
      Until your whole department closes and opens shop overseas. Hint- it’s not because the whole department was low performing. Do you really not realize it’s about bottom line many times??
      Jun 3
  • LinkedIn nubody
    I love the movie batman dark knight. joker says; “Nobody panics when things go according to plan. Even if the plan is horrifying!”
    Why can’t we plan a recession on purpose? Netflix has a crazy monkey to randomly simulate network partition in production to be on top of that. I think companies need to do exactly that to be recession-safe. I see a non stop trend for 10 years about recession. Instead of being afraid of the monsters, go out and slay them, man.
    Jun 2 7
    • Intel 1jpy2usd!
      Nearly all recessions are on purpose. The central banking system was designed to have booms and busts which all them are to sell at the top and then buy back all the wealth for pennies on the dollar, but this crash will be different. The old cabal central bankers are no longer in control. The new elite are. And a new system based on AI, blockchain and gold is here. Just watch. You'll see this play out step by step through June, July and beyond.
      Jun 2
    • LinkedIn nubody
      Are you saying these elites have enough money to start a bear trend to collect penny stocks?
      Jun 2
    • Western Digital / Eng
      Olibri

      Western Digital Eng

      PRE
      NetApp, Broadcom Ltd.
      Olibrimore
      You force the bubble to burst. A bursting bubble cannot be controlled or contained. The best you can do is to clean up the mess afterwards.
      Jun 2
    • LinkedIn nubody
      @olibri i am suggesting on company level, not national.
      Jun 2
    • New Vikf78
      Dude 10 years ago was the last recession. How have you been seeing a non-stop trend?
      Jun 2
    • Command Alkon cydf26
      It's chaos monkey.
      Jun 2
    • Expedia hnAy18
      Expedia does that by making sure 70 or 80% of the staff is full time. So in a case of any financial issue they can let contractors go
      Jun 2
  • New lgraham
    Is recession coming? Yes. When? Roll a die
    May 30 2
    • Booking.com RgDa84
      Meaning definitely in the next six years?
      Jun 2
    • HPE / R&D
      Ingenieur

      HPE R&D

      PRE
      Amazon, Microsoft
      Ingenieurmore
      Jun 2
  • Google azhkys
    I successfully predicted 38 of the last 3 crashes. Trust me a crash is coming by next Feb. My big toe always tingles exactly 8 months before a recession.
    Jun 3 4
    • Microsoft pJcW86
      "I can accurately predict all stock market bubbles and recessions but I still work as a wage slave in the tech industry and talk about FIRE all day on Blind instead of short the market and make bank and actually retire young"
      Jun 3
    • Uber BobbyB.
      You should stop working at Google and just make your living off leveraged stock puts and call options everytime your big toe tingles.
      Jun 3
    • Google azhkys
      But but but I love the rat race..
      Jun 4
    • Oracle alwzangry
      When there's active manipulation into which we have no visibility, trying to bet on recession is risky. Anyone who doesn't go with the flow gets punished!
      2d
  • Microsoft dTJQ43
    Look at every other recession. Not many timed it right. Is a recession coming, yes? But it probably won't come when everyone is expecting it, it'll wait a little while for everyone to forget.
    Jun 3 2
    • Amazon saywha
      This!
      Jun 3
    • Google
      EIon Musk

      Google

      BIO
      TesIa CEO
      EIon Muskmore
      You sneaky little recession
      Jun 3
  • Facebook / Eng 🤸🏼‍♀️🦝h
    Yes, and it's one of the reasons that I haven't moved to a startup.

    It feels like 2008. More signs for homes for sale, storefronts empty, and vacant commercial real estate.
    Jun 2 3
    • Rakuten ozMos15
      You do realize store fronts are empty because of online retailers like Walmart and Amazon right? Brick and mortar shopping is in the past.
      Jun 2
    • Good idea, yeah gotta stick to the big cash rich companies with seniority and high perf ratings to get through the winter.

      People have been foretelling the recession for many years now. In 2014, somebody asked Zuck at a Q&A what we will do when it comes, and he said we will keep ourselves cash rich and make cheap acquisitions. He didn’t say they would low ball offers and shrink bonuses etc, but it goes without saying. When it happens, big companies have a chance to clean up house and let go of poor performers. It’s a lay off and not firing in that case, so it’s fine.
      Jun 2
    • New QTdN03
      There are many reasons not to move to a startup, but I sincerely doubt someone like Obama will win the election again anytime soon. Personally, I’m really excited about the near future of our economy.
      Jun 2
  • Facebook deus
    Maybe not in 2019 but almost certainly by 2020. I’m not worried about layoffs. I’m hopeful that recession would drive down house prices a little but that is probably just wishful thinking.
    Jun 3 10
    • ICU Medical / Mktg
      user3.0

      ICU Medical Mktg

      BIO
      Trying my own thing but doing something for someone else. 🤷🏼‍♂️
      user3.0more
      That literally helped no one.
      Jun 3
    • Facebook deus
      It helped a lot of people in the last recession, though that one involved a historically unprecedented housing crash.
      Jun 3
    • ICU Medical / Mktg
      user3.0

      ICU Medical Mktg

      BIO
      Trying my own thing but doing something for someone else. 🤷🏼‍♂️
      user3.0more
      How can I help myself out?

      I'm a 25 year old male with $30k in debt and only $200 in savings. I hate my current job and I have a small business.
      Jun 3
    • Navy Federal Credit Union / IT masti
      if you have 200k in savings, why do you have 30k in debt. the best thing you can do is pay off all your debt. then take what’s leftover in savings and invest, minus 6 months emergency fund.
      Jun 3
    • Amazon / Eng
      Closure

      Amazon Eng

      PRE
      ETS
      Closuremore
      He has 200 dollars not 200k
      Jun 3
    • Navy Federal Credit Union / Eng masti
      In that case, build your emergency fund, then pay your debt off as soon as possible and whatever was going to debt put towards investments
      Jun 3
    • Navy Federal Credit Union / Eng masti
      Roth IRA cause your young and whatever else you’re comfortable with
      Jun 3
    • Navy Federal Credit Union / Eng masti
      take some finance/investment courses on Coursera and other venues so your making informed decisions when it comes to investing. Don’t trust the news, watch the markets yourself
      Jun 3
    • ICU Medical / Mktg
      user3.0

      ICU Medical Mktg

      BIO
      Trying my own thing but doing something for someone else. 🤷🏼‍♂️
      user3.0more
      That makes more sense. Thanks for the help.
      Jun 4
    • The housing should go down during a recession. There will most likely be more layoffs and foreclosures so housing will have to drop due to fewer buyers.
      Jun 4
  • Symantec vfDl51
    Recession is already there, Oracle’s already laid off 30% workforce globally
    Jun 2 9
    • Google / Sales meatballer
      I think Oracle has other problems.
      Jun 2
    • HPE / R&D
      Ingenieur

      HPE R&D

      PRE
      Amazon, Microsoft
      Ingenieurmore
      I think was due to over hiring. Oracle went into panic mode when Amazon kicked their butts outta aws. Then went crazy on building their own cloud as a last attempt to remain relevant. Natural retraction now, but 30% is also because they overpaid.
      Jun 2
    • Nvidia
      420_Blaze

      Nvidia

      BIO
      BlazeMaster 10K
      420_Blazemore
      Yeah, Oracle mostly did this to themselves
      Jun 2
    • Amazon Yipp5
      I think most people who don't work for Oracle dislike it and are not shedding tears for their recent fate. Will be interesting to see how Oracle Cloud fares.
      Jun 2
    • Nvidia
      420_Blaze

      Nvidia

      BIO
      BlazeMaster 10K
      420_Blazemore
      100% agree. I've always kind of viewed them as a scourge in tech and can't wait for them to slowly go away. Same with IBM.
      Jun 2
    • Amazon Yipp5
      Are Open Source and lower cost AWS options really eating Oracle's lunch. Masses of organizations run off of Oracle. Unfortunately.
      Jun 2
    • Microsoft tar -xzvf
      I don’t talk to anyone happy with their Oracle products. Everyone is in a holding pattern or wants to move to something else. Oracle has been a bad community participant too. It’s on its way down the drain totally on its own accord.
      Jun 2
    • Google / Sales meatballer
      Oracle isn't going out of business anytime soon. They are still a massive business and will continue to successfully operate for decades to come.

      The writing is on the wall though; they didn't evolve quickly enough with cloud, and their culture is famously toxic and seems unlikely to be able to pivot. They needed a Satya 10 years ago. Like Microsoft, they've faced a classic innovator's dilemma. But unlike Microsoft, they could not stand the idea of foresaking profit in the short run to extend the life of the company. So they will eventually be left behind.

      Ultimately, this is a thread about a recession. Oracle is not a bellwether of the economy.
      Jun 2
    • Nvidia
      420_Blaze

      Nvidia

      BIO
      BlazeMaster 10K
      420_Blazemore
      Exactly. They spent their time at the top attempting to sue the shit out of other companies (Google for one) and were just generally ass hats. Yeah, they won't die over night, but they'll slowly rot and be unable to pivot. They're going down the IBM path, which is fine by me.
      Jun 2
  • Yes recession is coming very soon. Here the evidence:

    Finally hit $100k on Robhinhood after 2.5 years of investing (87% total gain). Started out knowing nothing about the market. Here are my biggest lessons of pains and gains I learned

    https://www.reddit.com/r/RobinHood/comments/7t81z3/finally_hit_100k_on_robhinhood_after_25_years_of/
    Jun 2 7
    • Microsoft idknbd
      should've just bought vti and ijs
      Jun 2
    • Twitter finetody
      bruh. Anyone can make money in a bull market. Just cuz u got lucky for 2.5 years doesn’t mean u need to post on reddit claiming to have methods to beat the market. Come back in 10 years and tell me how your individual stock picking is doing.
      Jun 2
    • Bloomberg Tfkk01
      This reminds me of friend who showed me in 2007 how he made over 400k in the market. In 2009 he was not showing me anything. :)
      Does not matter what you have now, or in 10 years, it matters how much you have when you retire, and WHEN you retire. Working part time at 65 as cashier at Walmart is not retire.
      Jun 2
    • Nvidia flybu
      Bitcoincash
      Jun 2
    • The point is that when average Joe is giving you advise how to make money in the market, you know have reached the top
      Jun 2
    • Intuit ttcvv
      Bro, happy for you, but remember, tough times are gonna come. Most valuable lesson I learnt investing is - you don’t go broke by taking profits. Honestly, 40% investment in Team seems dangerous to me. There is nothing in Team that can’t be replaced in no time. Take care bro!
      Jun 8
    • Microsoft idknbd
      I doubled my money in roulette once. I wouldn't say I'm a skilled roulette player.
      Jun 8
  • New
    DesusNice

    New

    BIO
    Tc = broke. Education: the Derek Zoolander school for kids who can’t read and want to do other stuff good too
    DesusNicemore
    Unless housing crashes again ..... recession won’t be too painful. Most Americans have not bounced back from the last recession and are under employed.
    Jun 2 6
    • Microsoft Hyad70
      Speak for yourself...last recession barely affected me and I've continued employed as a high earner.
      Jun 2
    • New
      DesusNice

      New

      BIO
      Tc = broke. Education: the Derek Zoolander school for kids who can’t read and want to do other stuff good too
      DesusNicemore
      Yea. There is an entire world outside of your profession. Like factory workers .... the people that buy and use your product . They are still broke .... median wage in the us is 57k for a family of four! Don’t be ignorant
      Jun 2
    • OnDeck GPgj02
      Why housing n particular? Recency bias much?
      Jun 2
    • New
      DesusNice

      New

      BIO
      Tc = broke. Education: the Derek Zoolander school for kids who can’t read and want to do other stuff good too
      DesusNicemore
      Because the American economy is super charged by debt. It’s either housing defaults, student loan or auto... everything else is a small pinch.... as long as consumer financing continues and money changes hands all is good.
      Jun 2
    • Nvidia
      420_Blaze

      Nvidia

      BIO
      BlazeMaster 10K
      420_Blazemore
      Agree 100%. Downturns affect those who are most vulnerable and basically just temporarily lower the net worth of rich people.

      I think Student Loan holders will be the most affected this recession. Default rates are going up in boom times, they'll skyrocket in bad times. It's so sad and awful.
      Jun 2
    • Microsoft Hyad70
      Factory workers and laborers are doing better, by far, than under the Obama / Biden regime. We finally have a President with the backbone to stand up for American citizens. This is a decades old issue. It will take time to fully execute - Trump 2020.
      Jun 4
  • Salesforce cbnlk
    Yield curve inversion happened this week. Lowest level since 2007. So, yes, it’s coming - key is how quickly.
    Jun 2 6
  • Intel Najy40
    Yield curves inverted last week, property value declining, 16 of 19 main indicators have happened. Recession is coming, could be a softer 20 percent correction. Tech will layoff non-technical staff first
    Jun 2 0
  • Airbnb bC8&
    Yup recession is coming
    Jun 5 8
    • Taylor Farms Bazzingaa
      What does this chart show? Interest over time?
      Jun 5
    • New / Eng Bsky
      More likely interest after recession has hit I guess lol
      Jun 5
    • Airbnb bC8&
      Number of searches for the word “recession” on google
      Jun 5
    • Taylor Farms Bazzingaa
      Oh wow. Never thought of searching for that
      Jun 5
    • Google azhkys
      Search for "Economy crash" on Google trends and you'll see a much scarier picture.
      The current search for it is higher than that on Jan 2008
      I'm not sharing since I don't want to give blind access to my photos.
      Jun 5
    • Taylor Farms Bazzingaa
      I just did. Still in 2008 was much bugger. It’s 41 points today. And sept 2008 💯 But good perspective though. What else has google trends been useful for?
      Jun 5
    • Twitch / Data select *
      That is an interesting point... But it is only 1 data point though right?
      Jun 5
    • Google azhkys
      Bazzingaa I just tried again and got a different picture. 100 today and 91 for 2008.
      The search term I used is "Economy crash".
      I only get the numbers you mentioned if I search "recession".
      Jun 5
  • Twitter / Eng
    levels.wtf

    Twitter Eng

    BIO
    Definitely Jack Dorsey
    levels.wtfmore
    If I were you I’d be more worried about Tesla going bankrupt than a recession. Just my $0.02.
    Jun 2 7
    • Google rLko50
      That will happen anyways
      Jun 2
    • Tesla / Eng kzsejXdA
      Yes for sure. Already worried and on the move.
      Jun 2
    • New
      MIT_Grad

      New

      PRE
      Tesla Motors
      MIT_Gradmore
      What's up internally? Are they hiring? ex Tesla here.
      Jun 2
    • Rakuten ozMos15
      Seriously, whats goin on with Tesla?

      Elon Musk mustve seen something coming. Putting all his resources into SpaceX
      Jun 2
    • Tesla / Eng kzsejXdA
      Nope. Hiring is frozen. Musk has mentioned multiple times in public that he foresees a recession.
      Jun 2
    • Nvidia
      420_Blaze

      Nvidia

      BIO
      BlazeMaster 10K
      420_Blazemore
      Sounds like he's trying to gear the company towards staying afloat during a downtown
      Jun 2
    • New
      MIT_Grad

      New

      PRE
      Tesla Motors
      MIT_Gradmore
      I guess with that Tax credit ending selling is going to be hard. So he is trying to streamline as well
      Jun 2
  • Expedia metapod
    Definitely coming. All of our competitors are seeing almost no growth outside of North America. Oddly, we’re still doing ok everywhere except for UK, but that can turn quickly
    Jun 2 7
    • Microsoft idknbd
      is expedia hiring EMs?
      Jun 2
    • New / Product
      qGcU18

      New Product

      BIO
      Designer
      qGcU18more
      That's EU recession which is not surprising given their core socialist policies. America's economy is headed in the best direction, GPD index is great, no inflation, low unemployment.
      Jun 2
    • Microsoft idknbd
      Again, you are clueless.
      Jun 2
    • Interloc Solutions / Eng talentless
      And again, they are the only one bringing partisanship into it. 😂
      Jun 2
    • Oracle / IT
      l00tb0x

      Oracle IT

      PRE
      Ericsson, National Instruments
      l00tb0xmore
      EU recession? Excuse me?
      Jun 3
    • Amazon / Finance ggrrddee
      They are talking about Italy, France and Spain who are pretty much in recession from a conservative point of view.
      Jun 3
    • Oracle / IT
      l00tb0x

      Oracle IT

      PRE
      Ericsson, National Instruments
      l00tb0xmore
      Ah, so not economically
      Jun 3
  • Amazon DaReelReal
    Hope FB and Google stock keeps tanking so blind TC egos get a reality check.
    Jun 3 6
    • Salesforce cbnlk
      Checked AMZN lately ?
      Jun 3
    • Google
      EIon Musk

      Google

      BIO
      TesIa CEO
      EIon Muskmore
      Yeah be careful what you wish for.
      Jun 3
    • Microsoft whadaheck
      He is on pip so he won’t get the 3rd year stock anyways :)
      Jun 3
    • Amazon DaReelReal
      I don't work at Amazon. I was a 2018 Amazon summer intern.
      Jun 3
    • Microsoft whadaheck
      Was joking. No offense.
      Jun 3
    • Facebook whodattt
      Lol bitter.
      Jun 4
  • Amazon Waze
    Given the income disparity, most middle class folks and millennials are struggling to survive. They don't have much purchasing power to anymore. I think the effect of this is similar to a recession, regardless of how a recession is officially defined.
    Jun 2 0
  • Qualcomm designstuf
    Tariffs might cause a lot of layoffs and a recession.
    Jun 2 0
  • New / Mgmt
    FourHrWkWk

    New Mgmt

    PRE
    EY, IBM, Financial Times, Google
    BIO
    Founder with Interests in investing, energy, crypto, cannabis, tech. Multiple startups, I enjoy mentoring entrepreneurs.
    FourHrWkWkmore
    There comes a point when people just can’t afford the stupidly high real estate prices. In my neighborhood, real estate went up again this year, but wages have been stagnant. So eventually people stop buying homes.

    Chinese and air bnb investors have been buying up real estate propping up prices. But eventually that gets over saturated too. So real estate will dip first.

    I have a feeling some of the economic numbers we’ve been hearing in recent years are biased. I remember something about how the unemployment calculation changed a couple of years ago. I’m not certain- but it’s hard to say we have full employment at the same time we are seeing the worst homeless epidemic I’ve seen. And the stats for underemployment aren’t publicized. How many overqualified Uber drivers do you know?
    Jun 2 3
    • Your correct unemployment is not counted accurately. It’s counted to look good. If you work at Uber because you can’t get a full time job, then your mark as employed.
      Jun 2
    • New
      DesusNice

      New

      BIO
      Tc = broke. Education: the Derek Zoolander school for kids who can’t read and want to do other stuff good too
      DesusNicemore
      + they only count those who are actively looking. True unemployment is allegedly about 14 - 15 %
      Jun 2
    • Microsoft idknbd
      There are multiple unemployment calculations and they do capture underemployed workers and those who stopped looking. They are published by the government, but the media rarely reports on those numbers.
      Jun 2
  • Loomis Sayles rich rich
    Anyone tell you recession is coming is just stating a fact. Recession is always coming but there is no way to predict when. However, all the leading indicators are still strong, which says we are still some time away. Trade war is scary, but at the same time, the effect takes time to impact consumer confidence.
    Jun 2 3
    • ServiceNow / Eng workhater
      Which indicators are strong? The Fed is increasing interest rates, the chinese economy has slowed down. The US economy is slowing down as well. The BDIY index is showing signs as well
      Jun 2
    • Loomis Sayles Gpotato
      You got to dig into details. 1. Fed no longer increasing rates since end of ‘18 and the chance of decreasing rate is up. 2. China economy slow down is because of their government fighting shadow banking and potential credit bubble. With trade war, they might be forced to let credit go up again. 3. The relative US economy level IS slowing down, but the absolute level is still decent. Last, are you using freight index to look at world economy? Please read up on what happened to iron ore situation in Brazil. Freight index has lost its relevancy for the short to medium term
      Jun 2
    • ServiceNow / Eng workhater
      Friend index is a big factor in deciding world economy. Though I agree about all other points you said but the world economy depends on transportation. If you look at the BDIY it is a leading indicator for all the recessions. Though other indexes may have lost the credibility but ship index is still plays a big role. Even though it was broken during the 2008 recession
      Jun 2
  • Amazon AMZL11
    Even if it is coming am sure no one who access BLIND has abilities to predict about it, recession, depression, stock market crash all games are rigged. Personally am hearing about recession since 2012 that it is coming, but I have strong opinion when it comes no one would be able to predict it early. So why to even worry about the uncertainty that no ones control
    Jun 2 2
    • Autodesk sodjdjekrm
      Global depression has been real based on the trends
      Jun 2
    • Microsoft no-sql
      Totally agree with amzl11
      Jun 2
  • Bloomberg Tfkk01
    Question is not IS recession coming, but WHEN. Next 2-3 years will be interesting, especially for companies, and their employees, that compensate heavily through stock/RSUs. Yes, layoffs can be problem, but so can major correction in the value of stock/RSUs. It will be interesting having the "stock/RSU vs cash compensation" thread then. :)
    But, for the long term horizon, best time to join companies that compensate with lots stock/RSUs is around their 52 week low. Just ask anyone that joined any FAANG between 2009 and 2012 and did well, and is still there. Picking the last 52 week low is tricky part. :)
    Jun 2 5
    • Salesforce cbnlk
      Tech bust early 2000 was way worse
      Jun 2
    • Bloomberg Tfkk01
      I'm too young to remember. Please do tell.
      Jun 2
    • Google
      EIon Musk

      Google

      BIO
      TesIa CEO
      EIon Muskmore
      Essentially, everybody get fucked so hard there’s no one left to tell the tales.
      Jun 3
    • Uber / Eng #muga
      Amzn went from $100 to $5
      Jun 9
    • Castlight Health whaaaaaat
      I was there. What do you want to know?
      Jun 9
  • Booking.com enTd38
    Yes I believe it is coming and this time with way way more debt than in 2008, corporate debt is sky high and that’s just one of the risks.
    Auto loan defaults are also soaring, 7 million Americans are 3 months behind on their payments. Another sign of a recession.
    And this time I seriously doubt the fed is going to be able to prop up the economy like they did in 2008. Interest rates are already low and we all saw what happened when they tried to raise it in last December (massive sell off). And printing more money ain’t gonna cut it, if anything it will weaken the dollar.
    Jun 2 1
    • Google / Eng modi_56
      They so have the ability to prop up the economy with some interest rate cuts.
      Jun 2
  • Qualcomm designstuf
    Looks like Trump backed down on the Mexican import tax.
    Jun 8 13
    • Qualcomm designstuf
      Newspaper says Trump got nothing.
      Jun 8
    • Netflix / Eng LoveDeathR
      Newspaper said Trump had no chance of winning election either.
      Jun 8
    • Cerner pfdP78
      Quit being a blind sheep.
      Jun 8
    • Microsoft idknbd
      No reputable newspaper said Trump had no chance of winning. Nobody said he had no chance. Stop lying
      Jun 8
    • Netflix / Eng LoveDeathR
      When the newspapers were full of lies, even FBI believed it. See Comey.
      Jun 8
    • Microsoft idknbd
      Perhaps Comey has access to a bit more info than you
      Jun 8
    • Cerner pfdP78
      Perhaps Comey made shit up. And he got caught.
      Jun 8
    • Microsoft idknbd
      Except all the evidence shows he didn't
      Jun 8
    • Netflix / Eng xa-costa
      But but.. I was told Robert muller will find the truth??!! What happened to meddling? What happened to colluuuution? Shall I buy Coney’s book, or ten?
      3d
    • Cerner pfdP78
      Orange Man bad!!!! Reeeeeeeeeeeee
      2d
  • I made so much money in last recession
    Jun 2 7
    • Amazon IPA!
      uninvest your 401k?
      Jun 2
    • Tesla / Eng kzsejXdA
      How, could you elaborate?
      Jun 2
    • Twitch / Data select *
      I mean, he couldve bought 4 houses in the bay at 10 percent down, rented them all out, and then 10 years later, he's a multi millionaire
      Jun 2
    • Qualcomm designstuf
      Actually the bank would not loan most engineers more than the amount to buy one house. That is the definition of a credit crunch.
      Jun 2
    • Started a company and bought cheap property in San Diego
      Jun 2
    • Amazon IPA!
      So you only made money once it appreciated. Not actually during the recession.

      Making leveraged bets when prices are low certainly can pay off, but it’s hugely risky unless you accurately predict the bottom.
      Jun 2
    • More important that you have a flexible timeframe for growth and ongoing income to supporting holding than that you accurately predict the bottom. Buying stock at 40% discount instead of 60% discount still looks pretty good 10 years later. But yes, if buying leveraged with a timeframe (like Call options) then I agree, way too risky. Buying leveraged with no timeframe (cheap house) is a lot safer, but you have to have the assets to qualify for the loan during recession. Better to have dry powder ready to go. But there's also an opportunity cost to dry powder. Guess that's why it's hard to be a profiteer!
      Jun 6
  • Zillow Group >>>
    Tomorrow 5:00 pm approx
    Jun 6 4
    • What time zone?
      Jun 6
    • Twitch / Data select *
      Probably pacific time.
      Jun 6
    • Bad Time Zone!
      Jun 6
    • Twitch / Data select *
      Shit were only 25 hours away guys.
      Jun 6
  • Microsoft pJcW86
    This thread lol, don't quit your day jobs damn people... Economics should be a requirement in high school.
    Jun 3 2
    • Indeed lndeed
      and then theres lurkers like me who are aware we don’t know shit and read these comments to try to be enlightened but are probably calibrating off of incorrect data (wrong shared ideas).
      Jun 4
    • Microsoft pJcW86
      You have a realistic assessment of your abilities and that is all that you need, have a "growth mindset". All these fools here make 200k (which isn't much) and now they think they know everything. They watch Jim Cramer and read up on FIRE and think they are the world's greatest predictive economist.

      Here's a book on value investing, this is only one method to investing and there are a ton of others, I made some money and was able to turn the funds I made into real estate investing with a similar method: https://www.amazon.com/Intelligent-Investor-Definitive-Investing-Essentials/dp/0060555661
      Jun 4

Join verified employees in our anonymous social network! Download the app!

close