I don't think Airbnb will go up before IPO, will probably drop a bit at IPO and then maybe plateau after IPO. Stripe has already gone 7x in less than 3 years and shows no sign of slowing down with so much room to grow... it can take over Brex,Plaid,Square,and more
I agree with your thesis that tech IPOs are valued lesser by the market today. That said the upside will be significant from the last funding round since there has been no new valuation event (though probably not as much as it could have been had the markets been favorable)
Yes Fb, Stripe, Airbnb will pay and promote the top. But even if you have exceptional TC for your level, the rest will be slow to promo and put you at bottom of next level. Then these startup companies will be able to 100% match when your TC becomes average for the level.
quick promo doesnt matter for the reasons you listed. If you get 220 new grad at F and then quick promo internally to L5 in 3 years, they will give you lowball L5 TC. Now when you apply to other companies like G, they see you have 3 yoe (they dont care about your quick promo) and downlevel.
You guys do not know much on pre-ipo companies. Pre-IPo company pay in terms of options and depending upon how far they are from ipo they can go anywhere from 2X to 4X or even more.
Regrading Rubrik, they have milked too much and valuation is not justified, I think they will struggle, they make revenue by hardware sale, they can not be seen in terms of SAS or consumer facing company.
F=no WLB, AMZN=lowish pay, bad learning in current team, high risk of no WLB other teams, N=high pip risk, G=underlevel, so lowish TC, slow promos. Yes, all these companies have 3-20x more people who went F/G->them, than them->F/G. They can pay the same but have more growth potential in the companies equity and in your role which can promo quicker and become possible directors
There are a LOT more people working in Amazon than F or G. Think the same ratio applies? It doesn’t. A LOT more people in a company means more flow between companies, doesn’t change the RATIO (barring very new companies not having a couple years to go X to NewCo to F/G)
My point is simply looking at number of people going from company A to company B doesn't necessary mean people prefer B if A is much bigger.
For example, if A has 10k employees have B has 100, and 5% of employees from each company want to join the other, you will see more people going from A to B assuming they B is growing at a healthy rate and not having a hiring freeze.